NFL Betting Primer: Picks & Predictions (Week 4)

Week 3 of the NFL season gave us plenty of upsets, surprises, and some brutally bad bets (Rams +3.5 anybody?). Not a great week for me, going 2-6-1 on the official plays (up to 6-15-1) so far through three weeks. But the process was sound in Seattle at home, and we went 2-0 on the anytime TD bets from the BettingPros props show (thank you, Mark Andrews and A.J. Brown). I won’t be making my weekly appearance on the BP shows this week, but I’ll mark my top-5 best bets, five player props, and two anytime TD bets so I can look to improve my record after a brutal 2-8 Week 3.

Now let’s turn the page and attack the full main Sunday slate for Week 3. Whether you're building Same Game Parlays (SGPs), locking in best bets against the spread, or hunting for value in the player props market, we've got you covered.

This primer breaks down every matchup with actionable angles - sides, totals, live bet leans, and player props - to help you get ahead of the market.

Plus, with the new BettingPros App, you'll get instant alerts when a line hits your target, so you never miss the best number. Your 3-day free trial is waiting in the BettingPros app.

And if you haven’t been using the Betting Prop Bet Cheat Sheet…well, there’s no better time than now!

5-star picks are hitting at a 66% clip. +67 units and a 28.9% ROI. Smart prop bets, backed by data, not guesswork.
New users get 6 MONTHS of BettingPros Premium FREE (a $70 value) and a 90% deposit bonus from Novig (up to $45).

Just deposit & place a trade with Novig!

NFL Week 4 Betting Primer (2025)

Top-5 Best Bets:

Falcons -1.5
DET/CLE over 44.5
Saints +15.5
LAC/NYG under 44
Rams -3.5

Top-6 Player Props:

Anytime TD Bets:

Atlanta Falcons vs. Washington Commanders

BettingPros Consensus Odds:

Erickson’s Pick: Falcons -1.5

Confidence: ★★★ (3 out of 5)

Why:

Falcons play better at home than on the road
Atlanta is being heavily penalized for the divisional road loss in Week 3
Teams perform well ATS after 30-point losses.
Marcus Mariota will start, and no Terry McLaurin
Commanders’ secondary banged up

Trends

Sides:

The Falcons have failed to cover the spread in each of their last five home games following a loss.
The Falcons have failed to cover the spread in 10 of their last 12 games.
The Falcons are 12-24-1 ATS since the start of 2023 (2nd-worst).
On the road over that span? 6-11-1.
The Falcons have won eight of their last 13 games against teams with a winning record.
The Falcons are 5-4 ATS in their last nine home games as underdogs and 11-7 as home favorites on the Moneyline.
The Commanders have covered the spread as favorites in 9 of their last 14 games.
The Commanders have won each of their last four games against the Falcons.

Totals:

Five of the Falcons’ last six home games have gone UNDER the total points line.
Five of the Commanders' last six road games have gone UNDER the total points line.
When Washington allows 20 points or fewer on defense since the start of last season, they are 9-4 toward the under; when they allow at least 20 points on defense, they are 22-5 toward the OVER.
Ten of the Commanders' last 15 road games have gone OVER the total points line.
In 8 of the Commanders' last 12 road games, they have scored 23 points or fewer.

Overall

The Falcons had an abysmal performance on the road versus the Panthers in Week 3. Michael Penix's pick-six was terrible, and it just seemed to me that the Falcons didn't take Carolina seriously. Now they head back home to take on a Commanders team that will be starting Marcus Mariota. And I don't think that's being considered in the spread enough. The Falcons are slight home favorites against a backup QB. I think too much recency bias is happening here after Atlanta got blown out 30-0. The value is so clear on the Falcons, with them usually playing much better at home (especially after a loss and against teams with winning records). Not to mention, the Commanders will also miss No.1 WR, Terry McLaurin. Washington also has a ton of injuries in their secondary.

Keep in mind that this game qualifies as a Terrell Furman Jr. classic, “Close Your Eyes Special.” Over the last 25 years, teams catching points coming off 30-point losses are 115-77-8 ATS (60%).

As for the total, likely to shy away. Feel pretty good about the Falcons’ offense scoring 20-plus, given that they are overdue for scoring. They are top-15 in yards per game this season, but 31^st in scoring. The Commanders’ defense has allowed 24-plus points in back-to-back weeks, including over 350 yards of offense. The Falcons just need to start scoring in the red zone, which has been their Achilles heel thus far. Commanders have been average in the RZ this season, but they ranked 27^th in that category in 2024.

When these teams faced off in 2024, the score was 30-24 Commanders in OT. They also scored on a TD on every RZ possession.

Prop Angles

In their first game without Austin Ekeler due to his season-ending injury, the Commanders deployed a true committee approach in their backfield.

Jacory Croskey-Merritt and Chris Rodriguez Jr. each played 38.9% of offensive snaps, with Rodriguez leading the team with 11 carries. Jeremy McNichols, despite playing the fewest snaps (25.9%), led the team in rushing with 78 yards, highlighted by a 60-yard touchdown run where he forced three missed tackles (NFL Next Gen Stats).

Don't be overconfident betting on the Commanders’ backfield - which looks like a mess. Bill Croskey-Merritt also popped up on the injury report with a knee injury (although not considered serious).

Michael Penix Jr. has been pressured on 34.3% of dropbacks this season, just below league-average (34.8%), but has struggled significantly when facing pressure.

Penix has posted a league-low 15.5% completion percentage over expected when pressured, completing just 13 of 29 attempts (44.8%, 11th-lowest) for 173 yards and one touchdown. Matchup according to Next Gen Stats: The Commanders have generated a league-high 50.4% pressure rate this season and are one of two teams (Broncos) that have pressured opponent quarterbacks on over half of their dropbacks. When generating pressure, the Commanders have allowed the second-lowest completion percentage (36.4%) and third-lowest dropback success rate (22.8%).

The vast majority of passing yards the Commanders have allowed this season have been north of 10-plus air yards. This is Darnell Mooney's role in the Falcons’ offense. After a week where he saw very strong usage – over 100 air yards and a 23% target share - I'd expect him to easily surpass his 41.5 yards prop.

If the Falcons are to fix their red-zone woes, it starts with Drake London. 83% of the TDs the Commanders have allowed have been through the air. London scores for the 1st time this season vs Washington. I'd expect London to be Penix's security blanket when he is under pressure.

Erickson’s Props:

Buffalo Bills vs. New Orleans Saints

BettingPros Consensus Odds:

Erickson’s Pick: Bills Team Total over 29.5 points (Lean Saints +15.5)

Confidence: ★★★ (3 out of 5)

Why:

Spencer Rattler is 1-8 ATS as a starter.
The Saints lost by at least 8 points in all of their road starts since the start of last season.
Bills have scored 30+ points in 13 of their previous 16 games with starters (81%).
Teams perform well ATS after 30-point losses.

Trends

Sides:

The Bills have won each of their last 15 home games against opponents on a losing streak.
The Bills have won each of their last 12 home games.
The home team has won each of the Bills’ last nine games.
The Bills have covered the spread in 12 of their last 14 games.
The Bills have won 24 of their last 30 games.
The Buffalo Bills are 25-8 as a favorite since the start of last season, but just 17-16 ATS.
18 of the Bills’ last 25 games have gone OVER the total points line
Since the start of 2023, the Bills have been 19-2 straight up and 12-9 ATS at home.
The Bills have won their last 18 home games against opponents on a losing streak.
The Saints have failed to cover the spread in six of their last seven road games.
The Saints have lost each of their last seven games.
The home team has covered the spread in 8 of the Saints' last 13 games.
The Saints have failed to cover the spread in 11 of their last 16 games.
The Saints have lost 15 of their last 18 games.

Totals:

Bills have scored 30+ points in 13 of their last 16 games with starters (81%).
Thirteen of the Bills' last 17 games as favorites have gone OVER the total points line.
Thirteen of the Bills' last 15 home games have gone OVER the total points line.
Bills are 9-3 O/U since start of 2024 (51+ PPG).
Seven of the Saints’ last eight road games against AFC opponents have gone UNDER the total points line.
Six of the Saints’ last nine games have gone UNDER the total points line.

Overall

Buffalo will win, but by how much? This spread is absolutely MASSIVE at 15.5 points, and I'm definitely hesitant to lay that many points in any NFL game. Especially with the Saints’ offense looking primed to finish with a backdoor cover based on their up-tempo offense (1^st in plays per game with no OT periods). Buffalo also will not have either Matt Milano or Ed Oliver for another week.

Buffalo has also at times played down to its competition, which should be a concern for those backing the Bills ATS. I'd rather just bet Buffalo to score 30-plus points with heavier juice (-170). They hit 30-plus points every single week, and it doesn't necessarily require pushback from the opposition. Although I do think the Saints hang around here enough to keep Buffalo's gas on the pedal. The TNF teaser came through last week in Buffalo, so I'm thinking about going back to it. If you want a heavier payout on the Bills' TT over 29.5 points, add Saints +26.5 for a +110 payout. My fear going over the total is if the game finishes 30-14 or 30-17. But those exact outcomes easily cash for our two-leg plays.

Prop Angles

Besides the Bills' scoring points, the easiest thing to project from this game is volume from the Saints’ offense. You don't necessarily have to go all in with efficiency marks and instead just bet on targets, attempts, etc. However, with this Saints WR, I am more inclined to go over on the yards. Rashid Shaheed has 37.5 receiving yards in two out of three games this season. He can be a big-play threat (long of 39 yards this season). It’s a great combination for him to see his fourth straight over in a game where he should see some volume. I also don't hate the plus-money bet on the over on 3.5 receptions, but think the yardage is safer based on Shaheed's skill set.

Erickson’s Props:

Rashid Shaheed: OVER 37.5 Receiving yards

Detroit Lions vs. Cleveland Browns

BettingPros Consensus Odds:

Erickson’s Pick: Game total over 44.5

Confidence: ★★★★ (4 out of 5)

Why:

Lions at home = Over
Browns on the road = Over

Trends

Sides:

The Lions have won each of their last 11 games following a loss
The Lions are 27-12 ATS as favorites.
They have been 70%-plus ATS favorites since the start of 2023 and are 24-11 ATS over their last 35 games (72%).
The Lions have covered the spread in each of their last nine home games following a loss.
The Lions have won each of their last 11 games following a loss
The Browns have lost each of their last 11 road games when playing with a rest advantage.
In each of the Browns’ last 12 games, their opponents have scored first.
The Browns have failed to cover the spread in each of their last six road games.
The Browns have lost each of their last nine road games.
The Browns are 7-14-1 against the spread (ATS) in their last 22 road appearances as underdogs.

Totals:

The average total in the Lions’ last 30 home games has been 56.3 points; 73% (22/30) of the games have scored at least 51 points.
Six of the Lions' last seven games as favorites have gone OVER the total points line.
Twelve of the Lions’ last 17 home games have gone OVER the total points line.
Six of the Browns’ last eight games have gone UNDER the total points line (12 of last 19).
Of the Browns’ last 20 road games, 15 have gone over the total points line.

Overall

Unstoppable force versus the immovable object. The Lions’ offense at home versus the Browns' top-tier defense. A battle for the ages. Both teams are coming off massive wins. So, there's a lot of momentum on both sides.

But we don't need to overcomplicate things by choosing sides here with a 9-10-point spread.

Where is this game being played? Detroit. What do we bet on when the Lions play at home? The over.

When the Browns are on the road...what do we do? Bet the over. And they say betting is hard...(final last words).

Prop Angles

Joe Flacco's OL is dealing with injuries. He has already been a turnover machine this year (4 INTs), so go right back to the over on 0.5 INTs.

Jameson Williams has gone for 42.5-plus yards in back-to-back games. And he has done it on two catches. Back in Week 2, the Lions were heavily featuring him downfield. And in Week 3, he hit the over on the first drive. Detroit wants to get Jamo heating up, and Dan Campbell praised his blocking afterward. The HC guys LIVES by the 'no block, no rock' mantra, so I can only imagine he gets rewarded in some capacity with favorable looks in Week 4.

Projections across multiple sites have him crushing this number by 10-20 yards. Layup. Love his TD odds as well...given he has scored in 5/8 games (last two home games as well).

Jahmyr Gibbs has 3.5-plus receptions in eight of his last nine games played.

Erickson’s Props:

Houston Texans vs. Tennessee Titans

BettingPros Consensus Odds:

Erickson’s Pick: Texans ML + Under 43.5 (-125)

Confidence: ★★ (2 out of 5)

Why:

The Titans are the second-most penalized team in the NFL. But also an underrated defense.
Brian Callahan has been the worst HC ATS since his hire at the start of 2024.
Texans' home games heavily skew toward the under: Nine of the Texans’ last 10 games as home favorites have gone UNDER the total points line.

Trends

Sides:

The Texans have failed to cover the spread in each of their last 11 games as favorites following a road loss.
The Texans have failed to cover the spread in 12 of their last 23 games and are 8-13-1 ATS since the start of 2024.
The Texans are 9-4 ATS in the AFC South since 2023.
Since 2023, Houston is 4-7-1 as a home favorite ATS (sub-40%).
The Titans have lost each of their last nine games.
The Titans have failed to cover the spread in 14 of their last 16 games.
The Titans have lost 18 of their last 21 road games.
As road underdogs, the Titans are 9-13-1 ATS.

Totals:

Nine of the Texans’ last 10 games as home favorites have gone UNDER the total points line.
Fifteen of the Texans’ last 21 games have gone UNDER the total points line.

Overall

From a total perspective, this definitely has a look and feel of an under play. Texans' home games typically follow this pattern, and the Titans’ offense has hardly shown the upside of driving this game into a shootout. Brian Callahan has already stepped down from play-calling, ceding those duties to QBs coach Bo Hardegree.

All in all, the Texans just need to get a win after losing all three of their games in 2025 by one score. But they are not a team that blows out other teams. Thirteen of the Texans' last 20 wins have been by seven or fewer points.

But I cannot recommend a bet on Callahan's team (even if he has ceded play-calling duties). Maybe I am singing a different tune from this offense in Week 5. Or perhaps this is a live betting opportunity on Tennessee if the offense looks more buttoned up in the first half. CB Derek Stingley also might not play, giving WR Calvin Ridley an actual chance to finally produce.

Either way, I'm fading the sides in this contest. Taking the under and moving on.

My most confidence in this game is just for the Texans to win. If you combine that with an under at 43.5, you get -125 odds.

Prop Angles

Titans rookie WR Chimere Dike has been heavily involved in the Titans' red-zone packages this season. I don't expect a lot of scoring in this game, but I'd bet that Dike gets opportunities around the goal line if the Titans get in close. My fun long shot TD bet for this week.

Erickson’s Props:

Chimere Dike anytime TD (+700)

New England Patriots vs. Carolina Panthers

BettingPros Consensus Odds:

Erickson’s Pick: Over 42.5 (lean Panthers +5.5)

Confidence: ★★★★ (4 out of 5)

Why:

Pats’ home games have trended heavily toward overs. Week 3 would have gone over had the Patriots not turned the ball over multiple times in the red zone.
Panthers’ defense overvalued after strong home performance.

Trends

Sides:

The Patriots have lost each of their last five games as favorites.
The Patriots have failed to cover the spread in each of their last six home games against NFC opponents.
The road team has covered the spread in five of the Patriots' last six games.
The Patriots have lost 12 of their last 14 games at Gillette Stadium.
The Patriots have failed to cover the spread in 16 of their last 21 games at Gillette Stadium.
The Patriots have failed to cover the spread in 12 of their last 18 games.
The Patriots have lost 16 of their last 21 games.
The Panthers have covered the spread in nine of their last 11 games as underdogs.
The Panthers have lost 17 of their last 19 road games.

Totals:

Each of the Patriots’ last six games as favorites has gone UNDER the total points line.
Over the last 25 Patriots games, 16 have gone OVER the projected game total.
Eleven of the Patriots’ last 17 games have gone OVER the total points line.
Six of the Patriots' last eight home games have gone OVER the total points line.
Thirteen of the Panthers' last 19 games have gone OVER the total points line.

Overall

My initial lean on this game was on the game total over. Two bad defenses that are going head-to-head. According to Next Gen Stats, the Patriots have recorded 35 missed tackles through three weeks this season (tied 3rd-most) while posting a 17.8% missed tackle rate (3rd-highest).

In Week 3 against the Steelers, the Patriots recorded 14 missed tackles and a 23.3% missed tackle rate, their highest single-game rate since Week 2, 2018.

We also have two QBs who invite/create some chaos as both rushers and passers.

If Tetairoa McMillan plays (calf injury), I'll back the game total over.

From a side perspective, I think that 5.5 is too many points. The Patriots have hardly earned the right to be more than an FG favorite to any NFL team after how they have played through 3 weeks. And even if the Panthers don't win a lot of games (although they did win last week), they have been GREAT against the number since the second half of last season.

I think the Patriots win because they have Drake Maye, but the Panthers ultimately cover the 5.5-point spread.

Prop Angles

If there is ever going to be a breakout week for TreVeyon Henderson... It's in Week 4. The Panthers are a smash spot for the rookie RB as both a rusher/receiver. And given the state of the other RBs on the team (3 fumbles combined for both Rhamondre Stevenson/Antonio Gibson), Henderson's usage should hit season-highs in Week 4.

Opposing lead RBs have averaged over 100 yards from scrimmage vs the Panthers this season.

Drake Maye has passed for 212.5 passing yards in three straight games and in seven of his last ten games played.

Erickson’s Props:

New York Giants vs. Los Angeles Chargers

BettingPros Consensus Odds:

Erickson’s Pick: Under 43.5

Confidence: ★★★ (3 out of 5)

Why:

Since 2022, the Giants are 11-10-1 as home underdogs (52%).
At home: 14-12-1 ATS since 2022.
Giants home games go UNDER:
Chargers’ road games on the East Coast go UNDER the projected total.

Trends

Sides:

The Chargers have covered the spread in each of their last six games against teams that held a losing record.
The Chargers have covered the spread in 7 of their last eight road games.
The Chargers have covered the spread in 11 of their last 15 games.
The favorites have covered the spread in 15 of the Chargers’ last 21 games.
The Giants have lost 14 of their last 15 games.
The Giants have failed to cover the spread in 12 of their last 15 games.
Since 2022, the Giants are 11-10-1 as home underdogs (52%). At home, just 14-12-1 ATS since 2022.
The Giants have lost 9 of their last 10 home games.
The Giants were the sixth-best team ATS at home in 2023 (5-2-1).
NYG went 3-6 ATS at home in 2024. 0-1 in 2025.
The Giants have lost 10 of their last 11 games against teams with a losing record.

Totals:

Seven of the Chargers’ last eight road games against NFC opponents have gone UNDER the total points line.
Six of the Chargers’ last eight games have gone OVER the total points line.
Thirteen of the Giants' last 20 games have gone UNDER the total points line.
Nine of the Giants’ last 11 home games have gone UNDER the total points line (13 of the last 17).
Thirteen of the Giants’ last 18 home games have gone UNDER the total points line
In each of the Giants' last eight home games, their opponents have scored first.

Overall

Jaxson Dart will make his season debut for the Giants in Week 4 at home versus the Chargers. New York is very excited about their rookie QB, and OT Andrew Thomas should be closer to 100% after playing limited snaps in Week 3.

Getting Thomas back is super critical. According to Next Gen Stats, two of the three offensive linemen who have allowed the highest pressure rates this season (min. 50 pass blocks) are Giants left tackles James Hudson (18.5%) and Marcus Mbow (18.8%) while filling in for the injured Thomas.

Mbow allowed a 33.3% pressure rate in Week 3 against the Chiefs, seven percentage points higher than any other lineman with at least 20 pass blocks in a game this year. Thomas played on a pitch count in rotation with Mbow in Week 3, not allowing pressure on his 11 pass blocks.

Coincidence that Dart makes his first start in Thomas' first game as a full-time player? I think not.

I also think having Dart gives this entire Giants team hope. The offense should be more diverse without Russell Wilson as the starting QB. I'd expect the offense to look drastically different, and throw some curveballs that the Chargers (traveling from West Coast to East Coast) might not be ready for.

The Chargers’ offensive line is also dealing with injuries (3 starters listed on Wednesday’s IR report), which could give the Giants’ defensive line a chance to pin their ears back.

The crowd at MetLife Stadium will have something to cheer for with Dart making his first start in Week 4. I think they give the Chargers some fits and keep this game tight. I like backing the 6.5-point underdogs at home.

Although the best bet here is probably just the game total under, it's still a tough draw for Dart in his first game to face a top-10 defense. The Chargers are 1-2 O/U this year. And since the start of 2024, when they have played on the East Coast, the point totals have been 29, 30, 37, 30, and 47. 1-4 O/U.

Probably best to view Dart's debut as a team morale boost, and not necessarily a massive jump in efficiency from the offense.

Prop Angles

Giants cornerback Andru Phillips has allowed more than twice as many receiving yards (182) as any other defensive player when in coverage against receivers aligned in the slot this season (NFL Next Gen Stats).

His 23 targets against such receivers are almost double that of the next-closest player (12). Matchup: Chargers' 13th-year receiver Keenan Allen has the highest target rate (32.6%) among pass catchers with at least 40 routes from the slot this season. He's caught 12 of 14 such targets for 102 yards and a touchdown.

Ladd McConkey leads all Chargers (and ranks 4th in the NFL) in slots run from the slot this season. But he has just eight catches for 61 yards on 11 targets.

Trust the 5-star bets. Per the Prop Bet Cheat Sheet, Dart's rushing yards are listed at 34.5 yards. This number just seems massive for a rookie QB making his first start. Projections across the board have him much closer to 19-20 rushing yards. These lines just seem straight copied and pasted from Dart's college rushing average, which was 34.5 yards. That was also nearly nine carries per game. His rushing attempts line is 6.5 with heavy juice toward the under. Ergo...something is off with this line. The only QBs who have averaged at least 35 rushing yards this season while under six rushes per game have been Lamar Jackson (5), Baker Mayfield (4), and Tyrod Taylor (5.5). The other seven were averaging over six carries per game. Also need to consider that if Dart is tackled behind LOS on a read-option play, those count as negative rushing yards, not sack yards.

Erickson’s Props:

Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs. Philadelphia Eagles

BettingPros Consensus Odds:

Erickson’s Pick: Under 44.5 (lean Buccaneers Team Total under 20.5)

Confidence: ★★★★ (4 out of 5)

Why:

Buccaneers are never an easy out as underdogs with Baker Mayfield as QB
Bus-Eagles games have trended toward UNDER the point total.
No Mike Evans.

Trends

Sides:

The Eagles have won 19 of their last 20 games.
The Eagles have won 18 of their last 24 games as favorites.
The Eagles have scored first in nine of their last 11 games.
The Eagles are 8-15-2 ATS when their defense allowed 20 or more points since the start of last season (30%).
They covered just eight spreads when they allowed 20 points on defense.
The Eagles are 17-5-2 ATS when their defense allowed fewer than 20 points since the start of last season (70%).
The underdogs have covered the spread in 17 of the Eagles' last 29 games.
The Eagles have won each of their last nine games.
The road team has covered the spread in each of the Buccaneers’ last five games.
The Buccaneers have covered the spread in 8 of their last 13 games.
As home underdogs since 2023, the Buccaneers are 4-4 ATS (3-5 straight up)

Totals:

Four of the last five games between the Eagles and Buccaneers have gone UNDER the total points line.
Ten of the Eagles’ last 16 games have gone UNDER the total points line.
Eagles are 5-9 O/U as away favorites since 2023.
Five of the Buccaneers' last eight games have gone OVER the total points line.
TB is 3-5 O/U as a home underdog since 2023.

Overall

We finally saw the Eagles get pushed, and it resulted in a game with a flurry of points. Now they wouldn't have won or covered outright had it not been for the miraculously blocked FG at the end of the game. And I'm still not 100% sold on this passing offense after they (checks notes) were held to -1 net passing yards in the first half versus the Rams. Things exploded in the second half...but that first half outcome cannot be so easily forgotten.

Given that these Bucs-Eagles games haven't resulted in a ton of points, I am leaning toward the game total under. No Mike Evans for Tampa Bay, and it remains to be seen how effective Chris Godwin will be coming off his season-ending injury.

Baker Mayfield is as gutsy as they come (especially as an underdog), which is why I am hesitant to lay the points with Philly on the road. We know the key number for Philly covering is 20 points. If the Eagles hold TB to under their team total (19.5), they will most likely also cover this game. But TB has scored at least 20 points in all three games this season - and every game since Week 3 of last year (also held to 20 points at home vs. SF in Week 10, in a game that Evans did not play in). Better off just betting the Buccaneers' team total under at 20.5 than messing with the hook on the spread (if you like the Eagles).

So yes - back to the game total under as the official play. Both these teams rank in the top 10 in red-zone defense (they also ranked in the top 10 last year).

Prop Angles

Mike Evans exited the game late in the fourth quarter with a hamstring injury and did not return in Week 3 against the Jets. He is out in Week 4.

Through three weeks, Emeka Egbuka has been targeted on 5 of 12 routes run when Evans has not been on the field (41.7%), totaling four receptions for 49 yards. Evans has out-targeted Egbuka 22 to 16 across the 82 routes both players have been on the field together, according to Next Gen Stats.

Bucky Irving gained positive EPA on just 2 of 25 carries in Week 3 against the Jets, resulting in the lowest rushing success rate (8.0%) by any running back with at least 20 carries in a game since at least 2018.

Despite the underwhelming results, Irving forced a career-high nine missed tackles on those carries. He has recorded a 30.4% forced missed tackle rate on carries through three weeks, just below his mark of 36.9% last season, which ranked 2nd-highest among running backs (min. 100 carries) according to Next Gen Stats.

Only once in 5 career games vs the Bucs has Jalen Hurts not attempted at least 30 passes.

Only once has Hurts rushed for more than 40.5 rushing yards against the Buccaneers as well. Chasing the 5-star bets again with the Prop Bet Cheat Sheet.

Per Next Gen Stats, Jalen Hurts has scrambled to run on 7.0% of his dropbacks across five career meetings with the Buccaneers dating back to 2021, including the playoffs, compared to 9.9% against all other career opponents.

He has also been less productive when scrambling to run against the Buccaneers, averaging just 4.5 yards per carry (14 carries) compared to 7.3 yards per carry against all other career opponents. He gained 63 yards and scored once across those 14 carries, recording a single explosive gain (10+ yards).

Hurts is under 43.5 rushing yards in 9 of his last 15 games played. He has also gone over this number ONCE since the start of 2024 on the road (8/9).

Erickson’s Props:

San Francisco 49ers vs. Jacksonville Jaguars

BettingPros Consensus Odds:

Erickson’s Pick: Jaguars +3.5

Confidence: ★★★ (3 out of 5)

Why:

The 49ers tend to be one of the worst home bets ATS - massively overvalued by the market.
Market down on Jaguars. However, their defense ranks have been quietly fantastic.
- Second in EPA/allowed, 8^th in yards per play, and 5^th in PPG defensively.
No Nick Bosa for the 49ers defense.

Trends

Sides:

The 49ers have failed to cover the spread in 11 of their last 12 games against teams with winning records.
The 49ers have failed to cover the spread in 14 of their last 17 home games.
The 49ers were the most overrated team at home in 2023 ATS, going 3-7, which was fourth-worst in the NFL in 2023.
In 2024, they went 4-5 ATS at home. They covered against the Patriots/Jets/Cowboys/Bears but not against Arizona/Kansas City/Seattle/L.A. Rams/Lions.
The 49ers have covered the spread four times in their last 17 home games.
San Francisco is 16-9 ATS when they score 23-plus points since the start of 2023.
The 49ers have failed to cover the spread in each of their last 10 home games following a win.
The Jaguars have lost each of their last 11 games against teams that held a winning record.
The Jaguars have covered the spread in 9 of their last 13 games.
The Jaguars have covered the spread in 16 of their last 23 road games (not in Jacksonville).
The Jags are just 3-17 as an underdog since the start of last season.
The Jaguars have lost 15 of their last 16 games as underdogs.
The Jacksonville Jaguars are 11-6 overall as a favorite, dating back to 2023 (9-7 ATS).

Totals:

Each of the Jaguars’ last seven games following a win has gone OVER the total points line.
Seven of the 49ers’ last eight games following a win have gone UNDER the total points line.

Overall

The 49ers are such a tough team to back at home. And it's usually because they are tasked with covering massive spreads. Not necessarily the case in Week 3, but the +3.5 should make any 49ers-backer a bit hesitant. The team (per usual) is also extremely banged up, with the latest being Nick Bosa, lost for the season. That's a major blow to this team's pass rush. Not to mention, both Mac Jones and Brock Purdy have been practicing in a limited capacity.

I like the Jags with the points on the road. The offense has shown enough glimpses to be optimistic that it can score against a weakened defensive unit. Trevor Lawrence will have time to operate from a clean pocket, and he just needs his WRs to catch the ball for them to put up points. Fewer interceptions will also ensure the Jags cover the point spread.

According to Next Gen Stats, during Bosa's seven-year career, the 49ers' pressure rate with him on the field (39.2%) is 7.1 percentage points higher than their mark with him off the field (32.1%). Bosa will miss the remainder of the season with a torn ACL.

The Jaguars have allowed the NFL's 2nd-lowest pressure rate (22.5%) and sack rate (2.5%) this season. Right tackle Anton Harrison has allowed five pressures on 119 pass blocks, giving him the 2nd-lowest allowed pressure rate (4.2%) at his position (min. 50 pass blocks).

Prop Angles

Brian Thomas Jr. hit the over last week, but it didn't count because he had an 18-yard completion come back on a penalty. Also, he hasn't been the most reliable when it comes to drops. Needless to say, BTJ is seeing the usage we want for WRs to hit overs. And I think the 46-yard gain he and Lawrence connected on will build momentum into Week 4. Dyami Brown being out (and Parker Washington also dropping a ton of passes last week) suggests that BTJ will emerge as the top WR in volume in Week 4.

Erickson’s Props:

Brian Thomas Jr: OVER 57.5 receiving yards

Los Angeles Rams vs. Indianapolis Colts

BettingPros Consensus Odds:

Erickson’s Pick: Rams -3.5

Confidence: ★★★★ (4 out of 5)

Why:

The Colts have historically dominated as small favorites under Shane Steichen, but face a different test here as road underdogs.
Shane Steichen owns the second-best record ATS as a favorite (65%, 10-5). But since 2023, the Colts are 7-15 SU as underdogs.

Trends

Sides:

The Rams have covered the spread in each of their last five games against AFC opponents.
The Rams have covered the spread in nine of their last 11 games.
The Rams have covered the spread in 9 of their last 11 games against teams that held a winning record.
The favorites have won 28 of the Rams' last 32 games.
The Rams have won 11 of their last 15 home games.
The Colts have lost each of their last nine games as underdogs against NFC opponents.
The favorites have won 25 of the Colts' last 32 games.
Since 2023, the Colts are 7-15 SU as underdogs.
The Colts are 7-4 ATS as an underdog (4-7 overall).
The Colts are 6-3 ATS as favorites since the start of 2024.
The Colts are 13-2 as favorites straight up since the start of 2023.
The Colts have covered the spread in 13 of their last 20 games.
The Colts have covered the spread in 12 of their last 18 games.

Totals:

Seven of the Colts’ last eight games have gone OVER the total points line.
Seven of the Rams’ last nine games as favorites have gone UNDER the total points line.
Ten of the Rams' last 17 games have gone UNDER the total points line (65%).

Overall

This is where the Colts’ undefeated run comes to an end. They've taken care of business against two teams who will be looking for new head coaches sooner rather than later. And they should have lost to the Broncos at home. The Colts don't often win and/cover when they are underdogs. This has been a strong trend throughout the Shane Steichen era. Don't jump ship now.

The Rams have one of the best defensive lines in the NFL, and that will prove to be a major factor in this contest. The Colts also just lost their best CB, Kenny Moore, to an Achilles injury.

Prop Angles

Keep an eye on Adonai Mitchell’s props. Last week, he picked up a DPI call on a deep ball from Daniel Jones. Mitchell will see his role increase the most with Alec Pierce (concussion) out in Week 4 (especially downfield). He is very talented and an excellent separator. The coaches have expressed a lot of faith in him, not just seeing a bigger role if Pierce is out, but that he will THRIVE in that role, expanded position.

Erickson’s Props:

Adonai Mitchell: OVER 34.5 receiving yards

Kansas City Chiefs vs. Baltimore Ravens

BettingPros Consensus Odds:

Erickson’s Pick: Chiefs ML +135 (shy away from total)

Confidence: ★★★ (3 out of 5)

Why:

Bet on Patrick Mahomes as an underdog.
KC has won eight of its last 11 games as underdogs.

Trends

Sides:

The Chiefs have won each of their last 15 home games when playing with a rest advantage.
The Chiefs have scored first in each of their last five home games against AFC opponents.
The Chiefs have covered the spread in four of their last five games against the Ravens.
The Chiefs have failed to cover the spread in 12 of their last 17 games.
The Chiefs have won eight of their last 11 games as underdogs.
The home team has covered the spread in five of the Ravens’ last six games.
The Ravens have covered the spread in 13 of their last 16 games following a loss.
Ravens are 17-8 ATS on the road over the last two seasons (70%)
Ravens are 13-8 ATS as a road favorite in their last 20 appearances.

Totals:

Each of the Ravens’ last four games has gone OVER the total points line.
Each of the Ravens’ last eight games following a loss has gone OVER the total points line.
Ravens road games? 10 of last 11 OVER
The Ravens are 17-5 toward the Over since the start of 2024 (14 of last 18 over).
Twenty-one of the Chiefs' last 28 games at GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium have gone UNDER the total points line (75%).

Overall

Who would have thought through four weeks of the 2025 NFL season that one of the Ravens/Chiefs would be 1-3? Football is crazy.

But that's the reality we are living in.

Although the paths for these two teams up to this point couldn't be any different, the Ravens, at times, look unstoppable. But a few lapses late in games have led to losses. And there are pass protection and defensive issues.

Meanwhile, the Chiefs...everything they do offensively looks like a struggle. We always talk about how the great teams make it look easy. KC's offense is the opposite of that. Patrick Mahomes has to create magic just to get a first down.

Getting Xavier Worthy back for KC's offense figures to be a big boost for the Chiefs’ anemic passing game. But to the extent that this undermanned unit can take advantage of a Ravens defensive line missing Travis Jones and Nnamdi Madubike seems unlikely with Kareem Hunt and Isiah Pacheco leading the fold.

Even so, this is Andy Reid and Mahomes with the rest advantage. Mahomes is an underdog at home AGAIN. He had been a home underdog once in his career before this season. He's been a home underdog TWICE in the last three weeks.

Now he's 0-2 straight up and ATS in those spots. But this spot feels different with the Ravens looking vulnerable on both sides of the ball. And if KC pulls off the upset, I'd imagine their defense plays a big part in making a few key spots.

The Chiefs have traditionally owned this matchup ATS versus Baltimore. And I think that continues in Week 4.

I'm pretty torn on the total...because the Ravens team drives game total overs like no other. And I just can't live with myself if I bet an under between two of the best QBs in the NFL. Last year's game should have surpassed 50 points if Isaiah Likely had gotten his feet in bounds.

Prop Angles

Don't stop betting Lamar Jackson over 1.5 passing TDs. Odds are that Lamar throws at least two TDs in this matchup...He has thrown for 1.5-plus passing TDs in 15 of his last 16 games played (including 11 straight).

Patrick Mahomes has rushed at least 5 times in every game this season.

SLAM the under on Marquise Brown. Xavier Worthy will be back, and that could hurt Brown's involvement in Week 4. He's been under in back-to-back games. It took him 16 targets back in Week 1 to hit the over. With just 5.5 targets per game the last two weeks, fade Hollywood Brown in this #revengegame.

Erickson’s Props:

Las Vegas Raiders vs. Chicago Bears

BettingPros Consensus Odds:

Erickson’s Pick: Raiders ML -120 (lean game total under 48)

Confidence: ★★ (2 out of 5)

Why:

Four-outcome game
Bears don’t perform well as underdogs
Fade offenses the following week after playing Dallas.

Trends

Sides:

Per the Action Network…Caleb Williams has started eight career NFL games in the afternoon or primetime window (4 p.m. ET or later), and the Bears are 1-7 SU in those games. The seven losses were games by an average of 11.1 PPG.
The Bears have lost 12 of their last 14 games.
The Bears are 14-13-1 ATS and 12-16 straight up in their last 28 games.
The home team has covered the spread in 17 of the Bears’ last 24 games.
The Bears have won 9 of their last 15 home games.
The Bears have covered the spread in five of their last seven games as favorites.
The Bears have lost each of their last 10 road games following a win.
The Bears have failed to cover the spread in each of their last eight road games against teams that held a losing record.
Caleb Williams is 4-2 ATS as a favorite. Chicago is 6-5-1 ATS as a favorite.
Williams is 6-7 ATS as an underdog.
The Raiders have lost 13 of their last 16 games.
The Raiders are 14-10-1 ATS at home over their last 25 games. They are 5-7-1 as home underdogs ATS but just 2-9 straight up.
Over the last three seasons…Geno Smith is 9-4 ATS as a road underdog (7-6 straight up).

Totals:

Each of the Bears’ last four road games against AFC opponents has gone UNDER the total points line.
The Bears are 15-10-1 under the point total in their last 26 games.
The Bears are 6-4 O/U at home since 2024, and those games averaged under 42 points per game (PPG).
Seven of the Raiders' last nine games have gone UNDER the total points line.
Seven of the Raiders' last 11 home games have gone OVER the total points line.

Overall

We've reached our final game of the Sunday main slate, and it's easily the one giving me the most four-range outcome vibes. The Raiders are slight favorites at home versus the Bears. LV is coming off back-to-back bad losses, while Chicago is riding high after demolishing the Dallas Cowboys' defense. I got cooked backing Dallas last week, along with several others. The line moved to make Dallas a slight road favorite, and that couldn't have been farther from the right move to make. Chicago has always been better as a favorite, and when they play at home, trends I should have stuck closer to when betting DAL-CHI in Week 3.

So again, I think it's telling the Raiders are favored here even after how bad they have played the last two weeks. Seems like public money would be pouring on the Bears based on their performance versus Dallas. But maybe bettors are keen on fading total points in games after teams face Dallas...(0-2 O/U).

Definitely leaning toward the under here with the total skyrocketing up to 48 points, along with backing the Raiders as the small home favorite.

If anything, I am just most confident about this being the breakout game for Ashton Jeanty....

Prop Angles

Rookie running back Ashton Jeanty has forced 13 missed tackles on run plays through three weeks, the 8th-most among all running backs (Next Gen Stats).

Despite forcing a 28.3% missed tackle rate, he has averaged just 2.4 yards after contact, the fewest among backs with at least 25 carries. Jeanty has also rushed for -43 yards over expected, the 3rd-lowest total among running backs this season.

No team is allowing more yards before contact than the Chicago Bears (2.50). 5.5 ypc allowed this season. All 3 RBs that have faced the Bears this season? 3 straight rushing yardage prop overs.

5-star BP bet: Geno Smith UNDER 34.5 passing attempts. Only one QB has attempted more than 30 passes versus the Bears this season. If the Raiders can run the ball effectively, I think Smith finishes under this mark. He ranks second in the NFL in passing yards in the fourth quarter...which has mostly been tied to game scripts.

Erickson’s Props: