The NFL season is a grueling 17-game gauntlet. The day-by-day demands of the schedule are taxing both mentally and physically. Bye weeks come as an opportunity to rest and recover. When coming off of a bye, playing a team that just competed the following week creates a rest advantage. How can we as bettors target these rest advantages to find an edge betting NFL spreads?
Over the last 10 seasons, teams with a bye week rest advantage win straight up at an above .500 clip, including a 135-130-5 record ATS. Though you won more times than you lost by betting on these teams blindly, you would have finished with a -2.7% return on investment with a standard -110 price. The sportsbooks are wise to the advantages these rested teams have, so it can be difficult to find an edge. Focusing on a couple of trends over the last decade, there are some opportunities for bettors to profit. Let's take a look at two of these trends and find some games on the 2022 schedule to target for rest advantage.
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Early Bye Week Road Underdogs
There has been a lot of data over the last few years suggesting that the effect of home-field advantage in the NFL is diminishing, and books are behind in properly pricing it. Nowhere is this more apparent than when we look at road underdogs with a rest advantage. Since 2002, these teams are covering the spread at a 56.7% rate. That trend alone exposes a slight edge, but when we focus on these games occurring week 10 or earlier, week 9 or earlier bye, we find teams covering with a 37-18 record. That 67.3% cover rate over the last 10 years would yield a 28.4% return on investment. It's important to remember that trends don't guarantee success going forward, but there is an additional reason to believe this trend continues.
The NFL season is a grueling 17-game gauntlet. The day-by-day demands of the schedule are taxing both mentally and physically. Bye weeks come as an opportunity to rest and recover. When coming off of a bye, playing a team that just competed the following week creates a rest advantage. How can we as bettors target these rest advantages to find an edge betting NFL spreads?
Over the last 10 seasons, teams with a bye week rest advantage win straight up at an above .500 clip, including a 135-130-5 record ATS. Though you won more times than you lost by betting on these teams blindly, you would have finished with a -2.7% return on investment with a standard -110 price. The sportsbooks are wise to the advantages these rested teams have, so it can be difficult to find an edge. Focusing on a couple of trends over the last decade, there are some opportunities for bettors to profit. Let's take a look at two of these trends and find some games on the 2022 schedule to target for rest advantage.
Prop Bet Analyzer: View top-rated props and historical prop performance by player >>
Early Bye Week Road Underdogs
There has been a lot of data over the last few years suggesting that the effect of home-field advantage in the NFL is diminishing, and books are behind in properly pricing it. Nowhere is this more apparent than when we look at road underdogs with a rest advantage. Since 2002, these teams are covering the spread at a 56.7% rate. That trend alone exposes a slight edge, but when we focus on these games occurring week 10 or earlier, week 9 or earlier bye, we find teams covering with a 37-18 record. That 67.3% cover rate over the last 10 years would yield a 28.4% return on investment. It's important to remember that trends don't guarantee success going forward, but there is an additional reason to believe this trend continues.
Throughout the NFL season, players break down physically. An earlier bye can provide players with a better opportunity to recover while the season hasn't quite taken its full toll on them. As injuries and other maladies pile up into November or December, that extra week of rest doesn't provide the same benefit as it did in October. Keeping this in mind, with a lessened home-field advantage, it is easy to see how this trend could continue.
Late Bye Week Home Favorites
As the NFL schedule expands, we are starting to see more bye weeks later into the season. Over the last few years, we've started to see a trend for these later post-bye week games. The home favorites with rest advantage week 12 and later, week 11 or later bye, have a 14-9 record against the spread since 2012. It is admittedly a smaller sample size but a decent ROI. A key to this trend is discovering that eventual playoff teams were 10-2 ATS as home favorites with a rest advantage.
While the calendar turns to late November and December, the playoff picture starts to shape out. The haves and the have-nots for the year start to separate, and often motivation becomes a factor. For an eventual playoff team after a bye, this final stretch can be crucial for clinching a spot and seeding. This motivation, coupled with some much-needed late-season rest, is likely why we see such a strong trend here.
With these trends in mind, let's take a look at the 2022 NFL schedule to highlight some sides that may end up providing value to us as bettors.
Week 7 – Detroit @ Dallas
Detroit will complete one of the earlier bye weeks of the NFL season, then travel to Dallas in week 7. Coming off of a big divisional matchup at home against Philadelphia in week 6, this shapes up a potential letdown spot for Dallas. Currently, Detroit is +7 underdogs for this matchup. If the lines remain about the same, this is definitely a spot to keep your eye on for a strong potential rest advantage.
Week 10 – Cleveland @ Miami
Cleveland comes off their week 9 bye for a matchup in Miami. Miami will be coming off of back-to-back road games in Detroit and Chicago while also looking forward to their own bye in week 11. This seems like a prime spot for the Browns, still without Deshaun Watson due to suspension, to sneak up on the Dolphins. Sitting as +4 underdogs for this matchup, I don't expect this line to move much in Cleveland's favor as we get closer. If this is the case, I'll look to take Cleveland here.
Week 10 – Dallas @ Green Bay
Dallas will head to Green Bay in week 10 after a bye week. They'll match up with a Green Bay team coming off of three consecutive road games against Washington, Buffalo, and Detroit. Dallas should be a well-rested team for this matchup, while Green Bay won't have their bye week until week 14. The only reason this might not be a prime spot to bet on Dallas is if the line, currently at +4, moves heavily, making Dallas favorites before game day. If things remain the same, this is a prime rest advantage spot to bet.
Week 14 – Arizona vs New England
Arizona hosts New England week 14, after their bye. Arizona has opened as a -3 favorite at some books, and that's a number to keep an eye on. New England will be in the middle of a brutal stretch to end the season with seven straight matchups against potential playoff teams. If Arizona can build off of last year's playoff berth, this would be a spot to key onto for them. We'll have a very good idea by week 14 if the Cardinals are a playoff contender, as they'll have already played 5 of their 6 divisional games. If Kyler Murray has this team headed towards the postseason, this will be a big rest advantage spot to take Arizona.
Keep an eye on these matchups throughout the season, as they could be spots to find real value in the NFL schedule.
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