Many sports bettors love betting on a favorite. It doesn’t matter if that team is home or on the road. Bettors will usually take the team that looks better on paper and forget all of the other circumstances. However, that hasn’t been such a bad decision recently. Below, I’ll share a premium betting system that has won a lot of money for bettors who are betting road favorites this season.
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Performance Of Road Favorites
Before November 17, road teams are 73-89-1 and have won nearly 45% of the time. Meanwhile, road favorites are currently 47-22-1, winning 67.1% of the time. Ultimately, road favorites have won two of every three games this season.
In addition, road teams are 79-81-3 against the spread, but road favorites are 37-32-1, winning nearly 54% of the time. It’s not such a bad idea to back road favorites in the NFL. Many bettors tend to avoid road teams, but the reality is that if the road team is favored, oddsmakers likely believe that team is significantly better than the opposition. Remember: home teams often get additional points when looking at the spread.
Road favorites are never overpriced. They’re usually underpriced. The market doesn’t inflate these lines as much as the public sometimes thinks.
BettingPros System Trend
High Vig Moneyline Favorites (Road)
The “High Vig Moneyline Favorites (Road)" has earned an 11.5% ROI over the last 14 bets. These are teams that are -200 to -160 on the road in the NFL. The average odds for these favorites were about -178 over the last 14 games. These bets also added a 71.43% win rate, which is obviously greater than backing every road favorite for only a 67.1% win rate.
The characteristics of a road favorite typically include a better quarterback, a better coach, a better defense, and/or a more consistent offense. Many bettors will look at road favorites as risky, but sometimes some factors will create value. As the year goes on, the home underdog could be significantly injured, tanking, or not be a good football team. The crowd won’t be heavily involved in the game if their team is already out of the playoff race, for example.
We talk about travel like it’s terrible, but teams fly on private charters. Travel these days is less impactful on players.
When you’re looking to bet this system trend, consider teams in these spots if they have the better quarterback, playing a non-divisional game, and the spread is around -1 to -4. It might also be smart to avoid teams playing back-to-back road games. That could take a toll on players.
