NFL Monday Night Football Betting Primer (Packers vs. Eagles)

Wrap up the week with two franchises loaded with storylines and NFC playoff implications. I'll reveal the card lean, best player props, and suggest some teaser legs for those looking for same-game parlay action. Go Birds.

If you’ve been tailing the system, you know the drill – the data-driven prop sheet stays green. From expert insights on the spread/total, live betting opportunities, and can’t-miss player props, I’ll help you craft the perfect same-game parlay (SGP) to close out a profitable (hopefully) betting week.

Get ready, folks-it’s time to place those bets. Let’s dive into my top picks and player prop bets for Monday Night Football.

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Monday Night Football Betting Primer

Green Bay Packers vs Philadelphia Eagles - Monday, 8:15 PM ET

Erickson’s Pick: Eagles Moneyline

Confidence: ★★★☆☆

Trends:

The Eagles have been the first to 15 points in each of their last 10 road games.
The Eagles have won each of their last seven games against teams that held a winning record.
Each of the Eagles’ last five games against NFC opponents have gone OVER the total points line.
The Eagles have covered the spread in their last four games as underdogs
The Eagles have won five straight as underdogs (3-0 as road underdogs).
The Packers have failed to cover the spread in five of their last six games.
The Packers are 0-3-1 O/U at home this season.
Since 2023, the Packers are 8-6 ATS as a home favorite.
The home team has covered the spread in six of the Packers’ last nine games.

Overall:

Every amount of betting content I have consumed this week has suggested the Eagles with the upset, and it makes sense. Green Bay just lost to the Panthers, while also losing their most explosive playmaker, Tucker Kraft, in the carnage (along with all their other WRs dealing with some sort of injury).

The Eagles went on a tear last year after their bye week, and they have smashed as underdogs.

Sure, Lambeau is a tough place to play but the Eagles have the team that can come away with an upset.

Note this stat from Next Gen Stats.

Jordan Love has not thrown any 13 of his touchdowns against split-safety coverages, averaging 7.7 yards per attempt when facing such shells compared to 8.6 otherwise. The Packers are 3-0 in games in which they have faced split-safety on fewer than 25% of dropbacks, compared to 2-2-1 when facing it over 35% of the time. While the Eagles have used split-safety at the 10th-lowest rate in the NFL (38.7%), they have allowed the 8th-lowest success rate (39.8%) out of such shells, compared to a 45.3% success rate out of single-high coverage shells.

Love has targeted receivers running seam routes on a career-high 51.6% of his attempts. When doing so, Love has completed 105 of his 129 attempts (81.4%, 4th-highest) for an average of 9.2 yards per attempt (3rd-most), eight touchdowns, and two interceptions. The Eagles have allowed 6.2 yards per attempt (3rd-fewest), a 67.3% completion percentage (3rd-lowest), two touchdowns, and three interceptions in the seams.

The fill-in host on the Week 10 NFL Best Bets Show, Seth Woolcock, also loves the Eagles in this spot as the upset special of the week. Here was his breakdown from the show.

Bet: Eagles moneyline vs. Packers (MNF).
Line value: Lookahead lines flipped from PHI -1.5 to GB -2.5 and calling it a "gift," preferring the plus-money side.
Form & ATS notes: Eagles 5-3 ATS, 3-1 ATS on the road; Packers 3-5 ATS and coming off a home loss to Carolina.
Matchup history (Jordan Love era): Packers 0-2 vs. Eagles, losing by an average of 8.5 points (one at the Linc, one in Brazil).
Roster angle (PHI): Philly just added reinforcements (EDGE Jaylen Phillips, CB Jaire Alexander, CB Michael Carter reuniting with former executive from New York, Joe Douglas) and expects Saquon Barkley, A.J. Brown, Nolan Carter to be available; overall takeaway: Eagles trending healthier/deeper post-bye week.
Green Bay concerns: Anticipates growing pains for the offense, especially without TE Tucker Kraft and with other nicks.
Conclusion: Number is mispriced; he's on Eagles ML +116

We also know that if Woolcock crashes and burns with all his other picks from the show…well he's is “DUE” for a rebound on MNF.

This player prop is always on my betting card whenever the books post it.

DeVonta Smith UNDER 4.5 receptions.

In his last 13 games played with Dallas, Goedert and A.J. Brown healthy in the lineup...Smith has gone over this number just four times (31%). And only one of those times has it been on the road.

This season, it's been closer to a 50/50 hit rate. However( the long sample size suggests this is a +EV bet to make. Especially if we get a run-heavy Eagles offense out of the bye week, like we did last season.

The Packers have also allowed more production to perimeter WRs than slot ones this season.

Another 5-star bet per the Prop Bet Cheat Sheet:

Josh Jacobs UNDER 91.5 combined rushing and receiving yards.

Jacobs is just 3-of-8 toward the Over this season (38%). Additionally, all of those Overs came in softer matchups versus the Cowboys, Bengals, and Panthers.

He has been splitting more snaps with Emmanuel Wilson as he continues to nurse a calf injury.

Ergo, last week marked the third straight game under 60% - although he was north of 20 touches for the first time in three games. Jacobs was limited all week leading up to Week 9 with his calf injury.

The Eagles’ defense is healthy coming off a bye week with trade reinforcements to boot. I love the Under on Jacobs' total yardage prop on Monday Night Football.

Per NGS…Outside the redzone, Jacobs has recorded a career-low 0.8 yards before contact (10th-fewest, min. 50 such carries) and has been hit behind the line of scrimmage on a career-high 42.7% of attempts.

Combine these two props with the Eagles teased up to +8.5. Close to 3-1 SGP for Monday Night Football. Go Birds.

Props:

DeVonta Smith: UNDER 4.5 Receptions
Josh Jacobs: UNDER 91.5 Rushing+Receiving Yards
Eagles +8.5

Full MNF Card

Eagles ML