Don't forget to set your alarm clocks bright and early on Sunday morning, as the NFL is back with another international game. This week, the league heads to Germany for an intriguing clash between the Atlanta Falcons (3-5) and the Indianapolis Colts (7-2). Kick-off is scheduled for 9:30 a.m. ET from Olympic Stadium Berlin in Berlin, Germany.
Below, I'll dive into Sunday's opener from a sports betting angle with my NFL Week 10 best bets. I have a play on the side, and I've also listed a player prop I like. If you're a premium member at BettingPros, make sure to check out my weekly PrizePicks article, where I have a write-up with an additional Daniel Jones prop.
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NFL Week 10 Best Bets: Falcons vs. Colts
(Odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook)
Falcons vs. Colts Best Bet
This spread is a bit lofty - especially for a neutral-site game out of the country - but at the same time, I think it's warranted considering Indianapolis' high-powered offense. I'm going to lay the points with the Colts, as I do believe a victory of seven points or more is well within the realm of possibilities.
I specifically want to start with Atlanta's injury concerns. On the offensive side, both of the Falcons' guards are on the injury report. Left guard Matthew Bergeron (ankle) is confirmed out, while right guard Chris Lindstrom (foot) is unspecified, but he did not practice on Wednesday. Defensively, linebacker Leonard Floyd (hamstring) is confirmed out, while strong safety Jessie Bates III (knee) and cornerback Mike Hughes (neck) are both questionable. These are extremely important injury concerns against an absolutely loaded Colts squad.
The Colts are scoring a league-leading 32.2 points per game. They rank sixth in third-down efficiency (45%) and fifth in red-zone touchdown rate (70%). Indianapolis is going to get its points, and being that Atlanta will be short-handed in the trenches offensively, I don't think they'll be able to keep pace. Pro Football Focus (PFF) grades the Falcons as the 29th-best passing unit in the league, and with the Colts bringing in cornerback Sauce Gardner to bolster the secondary, that's another strike against the Falcons in this one. Give me the Colts -6.5.
Bet: Indianapolis Colts -6.5 (-112)
Falcons vs. Colts Best Prop Bet
You could probably consider this prop bet a square play, but hey, square bets are known to win from time to time. I'm taking Jonathan Taylor to go over 91.5 rushing yards. Taylor has been an absolute savage this season, leading the NFL in rushing yards (895), touchdowns (12) and carries (157). His 5.7 yards per carry are the most in the NFL amongst qualified players.
This is a favorable matchup for Taylor, as he'll be looking to amass yards against a Falcons defense allowing 124.4 rushing yards per game (23rd). Atlanta is conceding 4.4 yards per carry (20th) as well. Atlanta grades as the 25th-best rush defense, according to PFF, and they're a modest 10th in tackling. Taylor will be running behind the fourth-best graded run-blocking unit that the Colts possess. Give me Taylor to eclipse the 92-yard threshold for what will be the fourth time in five tries.
Bet: Jonathan Taylor Over 91.5 Rushing Yards (-114)
