Week 1 is underway with the Thursday Night Football shootout in the rearview mirror. And, with the first Sunday of games comes a plethora of player props to pick from. Because DraftKings Sportsbook is widely available and offers many player props, I’m featuring their lines below. However, I encourage bettors with free time to line shop to do so. For instance, finding a lower yardage number for a player prop you like to go over enhances your odds of cashing. Conversely, if you like an under and find a higher yardage total, the same idea applies.
Let’s take a look at a few player props for Week 1 that caught my attention.
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Gerald Everett (SEA) OVER 25.5 Receiving Yards -110
Gerald Everett accompanied Seattle’s new offensive coordinator Shane Waldron in defecting from the division rival Rams. If you want to read the tea leaves, that suggests Waldron encouraged the club to add the athletically gifted tight end in free agency. As a result, Everett should have some level of familiarity with Waldron’s offensive concepts even though head coach Sean McVay was the Rams’ play-caller. Moreover, that familiarity could lend itself toward him seamlessly integrating himself into the No. 3 spot in Seattle’s passing-game pecking order behind the top-flight receiver duo of D.K. Metcalf and Tyler Lockett.
Circling back to Waldron, it appears head coach Pete Carroll isn’t providing resistance to the new OC running a quicker-passing offense that plays faster. Stylistically, Everett fits that type of offense. According to Sports Info Solutions, Everett had an average depth of target of only 6.1 yards downfield last year. That mark’s also only 6.8 yards for his career. Everett offsets air yards with run-after-the-catch ability, averaging 6.0 YAC Per Rec in 2020.
Now, there is some risk Everett is part of a muddied glut of options behind Metcalf and Lockett. In fact, Hayden Winks of Underdog Fantasy noted Everett split time almost down the middle with Will Dissly in the preseason. However, the lack of a trusty No. 3 receiver could lend itself to the Seahawks using Everett and Dissly together in 12-personnel, and Everett’s the better bet to be sent on routes with Dissly left blocking.
Additionally, there’s a more important takeaway from Winks’ research in the linked piece. He mentioned Lockett’s ability to carve up two-high zone coverages like the Colts run. He also linked to the following tweet showcasing a higher percentage of targets to receivers intermediate and short.
Looking at some @SportsInfo_SIS coverage data. The big difference for fantasy purposes is Cover 2 zone vs. the rest of them.
Against C2 zone, a higher % of the targets to WRs are shallow (5 or fewer air yards). pic.twitter.com/SYDTnUy6O5
- Hayden Winks (@HaydenWinks) August 31, 2021
Theoretically, Everett could benefit from the shorter targets. No, he’s not a receiver. However, according to Pro Football Focus, he lined up wide 31.7% of the time and in the slot 12.1% of the time last season. Further, those marks are slightly below his career percentages. For all intents and purposes, Everett’s frequently used as a jumbo wideout. As a result, I think he’s a stellar bet to surpass his modest receiving yardage prop.
Calvin Ridley (ATL) OVER 89.5 Receiving Yards -115
The Falcons traded Julio Jones to the Titans in the offseason, leaving Ridley as the top receiver. Yes, they added unicorn tight end prospect, Kyle Pitts, in the draft. It would be unwise to ignore that. However, Ridley’s gone ham whenever Jones has missed time.
According to the 4For4 Market Share Splits App, Ridley’s target share’s ballooned to 31.0%, and his yardage has erupted to 107.0 per game without Jones. Last year, he was up to 109.3 receiving yards per game when Jones was out.
While Pitts will likely command more targets than the rag-tag collection of options behind Ridley last year, new head coach Arthur Smith could help Ridley’s outlook. The former Titans’ OC used play-action extensively. According to Pro Football Focus, Ryan Tannehill’s play-action rate of 36.4% of his dropbacks was the highest in the NFL among quarterbacks with at least 100 dropbacks. Comparatively, Matt Ryan was down at 19th at 25.8%. Presumably, Smith will lean on play-action regularly with the Falcons because Ryan thrives using it, ranking directly behind Tannehill in seventh in Pro Football Focus’s passing grade on play-action passes last year.
In addition, Atlanta could receive a pace bump this season. According to Sharp Football Stats, the Falcons played at the ninth-fastest pace with a scoring margin ranging from trailing by seven points to leading by seven points. Meanwhile, the Titans played at the second-fastest pace. I suspect Smith will make some changes to how his offense operates in Atlanta with vastly different personnel. Of course, that’s not a bad thing in Ridley’s case because Derrick Henry’s not walking through Atlanta’s locker room door, so a run-heavy offense is unlikely.
Finally, the matchup isn’t obstructive for Ridley going over his receiving yardage prop. Pro Football Focus ranks Ridley’s cornerback matchup as average. He’s not opposing lockdown corners, and he’s one of the game’s top wideouts.
Rondale Moore (ARI) OVER 2.5 Receptions -150
I’ll keep this analysis short and sweet. No, that’s not a jab at Moore’s height. Have you seen that dude? I’m not looking to poke fun at a guy who could steamroll me. Anyway, let’s get the train back on track.
The Cardinals selected Moore in the second round of this year’s draft. So the draft capital alone is a decent indication he’s expected to contribute on offense. Unfortunately, Andy Isabella was also a second-round pick in the 2018 draft and was rarely used. Thankfully, Moore’s preseason usage provides optimism things will go differently this time.
The dynamic receiver was Arizona’s most targeted player, netting eight in two games. He parlayed those into six receptions. Further, the goal seemed to be to get him the ball in open space and let him do damage after the catch, as evidenced by his average depth of target (ADOT) of 1.3 yards downfield, per Pro Football Focus.
Also, it looks like he’s a good bet to be their top slot wideout. Moore ran from the slot on 91.2% of pass snaps. Comparatively, A.J. Green’s mark was 33.3%, and Christian Kirk’s was 8.3%. So if he’s entrenched as the primary slot receiver, Moore should have no trouble going over his Week 1 reception prop.
Larry Fitzgerald was the team’s top slot wideout in 2020 with an 86.7% slot rate. Even in his diminished capacities as a 37-year-old receiver, he averaged 4.2 receptions per game. In addition, head coach Kliff Kingsbury’s offense used the slot routinely for short, quick-hitters. As a result, Fitz’s average depth of target was only 6.2 yards downfield, and he called 11 screen passes on the lumbering wideout’s 71 targets.
Finally, the Cardinals at Titans projects to be a barnburner with tons of plays run. I noted the Titans played at the third-fastest situation-neutral pace last year above. Maybe they slow things down a bit this year. However, new offensive coordinator Todd Downing was on Smith’s staff and saw first-hand how successful the offense was playing fast. More importantly, Kingsbury’s Cardinals played at the second-fastest pace. More plays mean more opportunities for pass attempts and receptions for the pass-catchers. Even if this line gets bet up to 3.0 or 3.5 receptions, I like the over. Ideally, you can catch it at 2.5 receptions, though.
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Josh Shepardson is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Josh, check out his archive and follow him @BChad50.