Once again, I'm using DraftKings Sportsbook for props because of the volume they have to choose from. Still, I suggest that you do some line shopping for more favorable player totals across multiple sportsbooks if you have time. For instance, finding a lower yardage number for a player prop you like enhances your odds of cashing the over. Conversely, if you want an under and find a higher yardage total, the same idea applies.
Let's take a look at a few player props for Week 14 that caught my attention.
View the best player prop bets for this week's slate with our NFL Prop Bet Cheat Sheet >>
Cole Beasley over 4.5 receptions (-115)
Once in a while, research leads to a statistical nugget worth milking for all its worth. Sometimes, I stumble upon something in my own research. Other times, sharp folks within the fantasy sports and sports betting world bring eye-brow-raising info to my attention. This week, Dwain McFarland of Pro Football Focus shared a noteworthy tweet about Cole Beasley in this week’s matchup against the Bucs.
The Buccaneers play zone coverage the fourth-most in the NFL (75%) ✅
Cole Beasley is the Bills’ zone killer with 25% targets per route run (most on the team) ✅
Wheels up✈️ https://t.co/uNNcV0gYS3
- Dwain McFarland (@dwainmcfarland) December 8, 2021
As McFarland states, Beasley is a zone killer. I dug in a little deeper after reading this tweet. According to Pro Football Focus, out of 72 receivers in 2021, Beasley is tied for ninth with 43 receptions against zone coverage. Further, he’s attached to an up-tempo offense that’s pass-happy. As a result, FantasyPros projects Beasley to haul in 5.0 receptions this week. So, let’s jump on this over with the confidence of backing from FantasyPros’ projection algorithm.
Alvin Kamara over 105.5 Rushing + Receiving Yards (-115)
It feels like a donkey maneuver chasing another over. However, Alvin Kamara has a mouthwatering matchup with fresh legs. This week, he has practiced fully, setting the stage for a return to his do-it-all back role against a defense that’s inept stopping running backs.
First, according to Football Outsiders, the New York Jets are 30th in rush defense Defense-adjusted Value Over Average (DVOA). Second, running backs are smashing them on the ground and through the air. According to Pro-Football-Reference, Gang Green allows the fourth-most rushing yards (1,411) and second-most receiving yards (753) to running backs. As a result, they’re getting trounced for 180.33 rushing plus receiving yards per game by running backs.
As for Kamara, he has had more than 105.5 rushing plus receiving yards in half of his games this season. Given the soft matchup, a coin flip should land in favor of Kamara passing his scrimmage yardage prop. Finally, FantasyPros agrees, projecting 106.1 scrimmage yards for Kamara.
Davante Adams to score anytime and the Packers win (+100)
Last week, we hit on this wager with Jonathan Taylor and the Indianapolis Colts winning. So, let’s go back to the well this week. First, the BettingPros Consensus line is the 9-3 Green Bay Packers laying 12.5 points out of their bye against the visiting Chicago Bears. In addition, their consensus moneyline is -700. So, I feel great about Green Bay beating the Bears for a second time this year, having won 24-14 in Week 6.
Next, Davante Adams has to score a touchdown to cash this bet. Unfortunately, he’s scored only five touchdowns in 11 games this year. Still, he’s a target hog. According to Sports Info Solutions, Adam has had the second-highest target share (29.0%) this year.
In addition, he’s the apple of Aaron Rodgers’ eye in the red zone. According to FantasyPros’ red zone stats, Adams’ 16 targets inside the 20-yard line lead the Packers. Thus, his usage forbodes well for more touchdown scoring opportunities for the 2020 leader in touchdown receptions.
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Josh Shepardson is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Josh, check out his archive and follow him @BChad50.