Once again, I’m using DraftKings Sportsbook for props because of the volume they have to choose from. Still, I suggest that you do some line shopping for more favorable player totals across multiple sportsbooks if you have time. For instance, finding a lower yardage number for a player prop you like enhances your odds of cashing the over. Conversely, if you want an under and find a higher yardage total, the same idea applies.
Let’s take a look at a few player props for Week 18 that caught my attention.
Devin Singletary Over 89.5 Rushing + Receiving Yards (-115)
First, the Buffalo Bills are motivated to win since they’ll claim the AFC East crown with a victory. Second, they’re huge 16.5-point favorites against the New York Jets. Therefore, the game script will likely be perfect for feeding Devin Singletary against Gang Green’s hapless run defense.
According to Football Outsiders, the Jets are 26th in rush defense Defense-adjusted Value Over Average (DVOA). In addition, according to Pro-Football-Reference, the Jets allow an eye-popping 169.44 scrimmage yards per game to running backs. So, I ask, why wouldn’t the Bills protect franchise quarterback Josh Allen by utilizing Motor more often in a mouthwatering matchup this week? I can’t come up with a reason why they won’t.
Moreover, Singletary has ascended to feature-back status for the Bills. According to the NFL Snap Count Leaders at FantasyPros, Singletary has had offensive snap shares of 82%, 93%, 68%, and 80%, working from Week 14 through Week 17. He has had more than 89.5 scrimmage yards twice in that four-game stretch, falling only a half-yard short in one of the other games. Singletary should have little trouble steamrolling the Jets this week.
Dalvin Cook Under 107.5 Rushing + Receiving Yards (-115)
The Minnesota Vikings are out of the playoffs. Further, I haven’t seen Dalvin Cook’s name come up in the fantasy football/betting Twitter discourse about player incentives. As a result, this over feels high for Minnesota’s star running back. Seriously, why punish him with an unnecessarily high workload in a meaningless game with capable backup Alexander Mattison available?
Last week, Cook handled just a 54% offensive snap share, touching the ball 12 times for 13 yards. Yes, obviously, Kirk Cousins is back this week. However, even with Cousins running the offense against the Chicago Bears in Week 15, Cook totaled only 91 yards on 30 touches.
Surprisingly, Cook hasn’t been incredibly efficient against the Bears, despite Chicago having a below-average run defense. Sure, he had a blow-up game in Week 15 last year, but he also needed 30 carries and four receptions to total 112 yards in Week 10 last year. Frankly, it would be irresponsible for the Vikings to force-feed oft-bang-up Cook the ball that many times in the regular-season finale. Even with his regular bell-cow role, Cook isn’t a shoo-in to go over. So, factor in the possibility of a reduced workload, and I love the under.
Michael Pittman Jr. Anytime Touchdown/Indianapolis to Win (+120)
The Indianapolis Colts must win to assure themselves a playoff berth. Thankfully, the dysfunctional Jacksonville Jaguars are unlikely to put up much of a fight. Seemingly everyone is fixated on Jonathan Taylor likely steamrolling them. However, there might be plenty of touchdowns to go around. Indy has a gaudy implied total of 29.75 points.
So, it’s possible for Taylor to score multiple touchdowns and others to get in on the fun as well. Michael Pittman Jr. is my favorite of Indy’s other options to reach pay dirt. According to FantasyPros Red Zone Stats, Pittman’s 16 red-zone targets are the most on the Colts, accounting for a stellar 23.53% target share inside the 20. Additionally, he has one rush attempt inside the 20.
The matchup isn’t too shabby for Pittman, either. The Jaguars are 32nd in pass defense DVOA. Moreover, Jacksonville’s coughed up 16 receiving touchdowns to wideouts this season. Unfortunately, Pittman and a Colts win don’t offer us a juicy betting line like many of the player-touchdown/team-win props from previous weeks. Nevertheless, it caught my attention, and we won’t complain if it’s a winning wager.
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