NFL Player Prop Bets: Week 8 (2021)

Once again, I'm using DraftKings Sportsbook for props because of the volume they have to choose from. Still, I suggest that you do some line shopping for more favorable player totals across multiple sportsbooks if you have time. For instance, finding a lower yardage number for a player prop you like enhances your odds of cashing the over. Conversely, if you want an under and find a higher yardage total, the same idea applies.

Let's take a look at a few player props for Week 8 that caught my attention.

View the best player prop bets for this week's slate with our NFL Prop Bet Cheat Sheet >>

Kyle Pitts Over 4.5 Receptions (-130)

The Atlanta Falcons had a nightmarish start to the season in Week 1. However, new head coach Arthur Smith kept the offensive starters in bubble wrap for almost the entire preseason. So, it shouldn’t come as a shocker they stumbled out of the blocks, running a new offense in a game that mattered after doing very little ironing out the kinks in the preseason.

They’ve since found their footing, and they’re one of the NFL’s most pass-happy offenses. According to Sharp Football Stats, in Week 2 through Week 7, when the scoring margin is between trailing by seven points and leading by seven points, the Falcons are passing at the third-highest rate (64%). Also, according to Football Outsiders, they run a slightly faster than average offense in neutral situations, ranking ninth-fastest (29.64 seconds between plays compared to an average of 31.03 seconds).

A pass-happy and uptempo offense is ideal for Kyle Pitts and going over 4.5 receptions. Additionally, he’s playing at an exceptionally high level and finding his footing in the pros. According to Pro-Football-Reference, he’s averaging 5.2 receptions per game. Further, he’s tallied his two highest single-game reception totals in his previous two games, hauling in nine in Week 5 and seven in Week 7.

The rookie’s per-game route total ranks behind Calvin Ridley, but his 207 routes, per Pro Football Focus, are the highest total on the team. In addition, calling him a tight end is slightly disingenuous. Instead, he’s most accurately described as a wide receiver and tight end hybrid, aligning inline 45 times, wide 72 times, and in the slot 111 times.

Wagering on Pitts hauling in five or more passes appears to be the best play here. However, don’t just take my word for it. The projections at FantasyPros project him to amass 4.9 receptions this week.

Mike Davis Under 35.5 Rushing Yards (-125)

Wagering on Mike Davis finishing Sunday’s contest with under 36 rushing yards is a nifty correlation play if you expect Pitts to surpass his prop for receptions. Atlanta’s pass-heavy offense I discussed above benefits the pass-catchers to the detriment of the ball-carriers.

Yet, the play-calling is the least of Davis’ concerns. According to the snap counts at FantasyPros, Davis tied his season-low by playing only 60% of the team’s snaps coming out of their bye. Meanwhile, Cordarrelle Patterson played a season-high 73% of the snaps.

In addition to tying his season-low for playing time, Davis set new lows for rush attempts (four) and rushing yards (10). Further, last week was the second time he’s rushed for fewer than 20 yards in the previous three games. He’s on a slippery slope to being phased out of the offense or serving in little more than a change-of-pace gig. Therefore, I like his under. Once again, FantasyPros’ projections support taking this wager as well, projecting Davis for a meager 33.9 rushing yards in Week 8.

Gabriel Davis Anytime Touchdown Scorer (+450)

I frequently like to close this piece with a juicy long-shot bet that captures my attention. Gabriel Davis’s anytime touchdown prop fits the bill — bad pun intended for the second-year receiver on the Bills. Buffalo has the highest implied total this week at a tasty 31.5 points. Therefore, they’re a great bet to find paydirt a few times against the hapless Miami Dolphins.

Further, the Dolphins are worse against the pass than the run. According to Football Outsiders, the Dolphins rank 26th in pass defense, Defense-adjusted Value Over Average (DVOA), and 18th in rush defense DVOA. Meanwhile, the Bills utilize a fast-tempo, pass-heavy offense. As a result, Buffalo plays at the third-fastest situation neutral pace and passes at the fifth-highest rate (64%) when the offensive scoring margin ranges from trailing by seven points to leading by seven points. In addition, they keep the pedal to the metal against the opposition, passing at a 48% rate when leading by eight points or more, three percent above the league average for teams leading by that margin.

Finally, the red zone data sews up my interest in Davis’ anytime touchdown prop. According to FantasyPros, despite the Bills having a bye already, Josh Allen has the second-most pass attempts (49) in the red zone, inside the 15-yard line and the 10-yard line. Inside the five-yard line, he’s tied for the fourth-most pass attempts. Therefore, the Bills are likely to air it out in the scoring territory.

Davis is on Allen’s radar in that area of the field with two targets inside of the ten on Allen’s 23 attempts in that part of the field. However, he might have an enhanced role with Dawson Knox out. The third-year breakout tight end ties for the team lead with four targets inside the ten this year. Davis isn’t a lock to capture the vacated targets. However, they’re vacated, and Davis might throw his hat in the ring for more red-zone love. The Bills should pile up points this week, so let’s jump on a long shot with a theoretical path to paydirt.

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Josh Shepardson is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Josh, check out his archive and follow him @BChad50.