After 14 NFL preseason games have been played since Thursday, the action comes to a close on Sunday with a much smaller two-game slate in comparison.
Both games will feature a brand new head coach with offensive minds, as Ben Johnson makes his head coaching debut for the Chicago Bears, while Kellen Moore leads the New Orleans Saints for the first time in the second game of the NFL Network’s doubleheader. How will that impact our two game picks? Here are our top NFL preseason picks for Sunday’s Week 1 games.
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Sunday’s Best NFL Preseason Picks & Bets
(Odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook)
Miami Dolphins (+3) vs. Chicago Bears (-170) | O/U 35.5 (-110/-110)
Chicago opened as a 2.5-point favorite but was bet up to the key number of three later in the week. However, I am not sure that movement was justified given that Bears head coach Ben Johnson declared that at least 17 starters would not be playing on Sunday.
As with most preseason games, this wager comes down to which stable of backup quarterbacks one feels more confident in. Chicago's Tyson Bagent is a respectable 2-2 in his career as a starter, but he also has an unappealing 3:6 TD:INT ratio in his nine career appearances.
While Zach Wilson was a disaster leading the New York Jets, he still has much more game experience than Bagent to draw upon.
I am hesitant to fade Johnson in his coaching debut, but I will instead back Mike McDaniel, who needs positive momentum given that his seat may be the hottest of any NFL coach.
Pick: Dolphins +3 (-110)
New Orleans Saints (-1.5) vs. Los Angeles Chargers (-110) | O/U 37.5 (-105/-115)
Los Angeles jumped out early on Detroit in its first preseason action in the Hall of Fame Game and never looked back. The Chargers scored touchdowns on two of their first three possessions, and had a chance at more points on the other but missed a field goal. However, I expect an eager Saints team to get off to the quicker start in this one.
New Orleans will begin with Spencer Rattler under center, who started six games as a rookie last year. While Rattler failed to lead the team to a win in any of those six starts, he has reportedly shown great command of the offense so far in camp.
I am limiting this wager to just the first half, as it is anyone's guess what to expect from Saints rookie quarterback Tyler Shough when he takes over. We will just have to hold our breath that Rattler gets at least the whole first quarter, while Shough doesn’t see the brunt of his work until the second half.
Meanwhile, I expect Kellen Moore's New Orleans squad to be the much more aggressive team in terms of play-calling in his head coaching debut, compared to Jim Harbaugh's team that called 35 runs to 23 passes in the preseason opener.
The first half spread is the same as the full-game spread, but the +118 odds to lay the points over the first 30 minutes are too good to pass up.
Pick: Saints 1H -1.5 (+118)
Mike Spector is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Mike, check out his archive and follow him @MikeSpector01