Sunday night always brings the market's sharpest numbers, but also prime-time volatility - perfect for prop value. Whether you are licking your wounds or riding high into Sunday night…BettingPros has got you covered (like the Seahawks, hopefully, do as well).
We'll continue following the data-driven edge from BettingPros' 5-Star Prop Cheat Sheet, which has delivered a 59% win rate and +105 units through eight weeks, including a 70% hit rate on yardage props.
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Sunday Night Football Betting Primer
Washington Commanders vs Seattle Seahawks - Sunday, 8:20 PM ET (NBC)
Erickson's Pick: Seahawks -3
Confidence: ★★★★★
Trends:
- The Seahawks have won each of their last nine road games (10 wins in a row as road favorites).
- The Seahawks are 10-1 SU on the road since the start of 2024…
- The Seahawks have been the first to 20 points in each of their last four road games.
- The Seahawks have covered the spread in five of their last six games.
- When Washington allows 20 points or fewer on defense since the start of last season, they are 10-4 toward the under; when they allow at least 20 points on defense, they are 24-7 toward the OVER
- Jayden Daniels is 6-6 ATS as an underdog.
Overall:
Seattle has been a wagon on the road the last two years (10-1 straight up since 2024). They're off a bye; Washington is off a short week and banged up. Seattle's pass rush has posted 50% pressure rates in back-to-back games-bad news for a not-100% Jayden Daniels behind a compromised OL (Laremy Tunsil got hurt last week).
I'll lay the field goal with Seattle as road warriors.
Betting versus Daniels as a home underdog feels scary, but the vibes around the Commanders aren't as good as they were last season. They've regressed. Last year was the Commanders' magic season; this year everything's tilted the other way. Seattle is legit, off a bye, and Mike Macdonald has lost once on the road as HC.
Seattle is also getting their starting fullback back, so we could see big things from their run game.
I like both of their RBs to do what they do best.
Kenneth Walker should be an efficient rusher. And Zach Charbonnet should pile drive his way into the end zone.
The Commanders are weak against outside runs and red zone rush attempts.
Per Next Gen Stats...Walker has forced a missed tackle on 28.4% of his carries (8th-highest, min. 50 carries) and produced an explosive run on 14.7% (9th-highest), while teammate Zach Charbonnet owns the league's lowest explosive run rate at 2.8% (22.2% MTF rate).
Walker's burst has been key, averaging 11.04 MPH at the line of scrimmage on his carries (4th-fastest), compared to Charbonnet's 9.21 MPH (8th-slowest). The Commanders defense has missed a tackle on 27.2% of opponent rushes in 2025, the 5th-highest rate in the league.
Walker has also rushed outside the tackles on 61.1% of his rushes this season, 11.1% higher than Zach Charbonnet's 50.0%.
Charbonnet has handled 7 of the Seahawks 10 third and short carries (less than two yards) in 2025, with Walker recording none.
Charbonnet has also received 5 of the 6 goal line carries this season (4 touchdowns) compared to Walker's 1 (1 TD). The Commanders defense has allowed the 7th-most yards per carry against outside rushes (5.7) but the 9th-fewest against inside rushes (3.7).
Walker has rushed for 53.5 yards in four of his last six games. BP Projections also have him hitting the over.
Charbonnet has scored in all but two games this season.
Also…how effective will Daniels be as a runner coming back from the injury? It's his second injury this season that has caused him to miss time.
First it was his knee, then it was his hamstring.
We bet the under on his rushing attempts after his first injury to success.
He has only gone over 8.5 carries once since his first knee injury.
When he is dealing with lower-leg injuries, there's just less designed run calls for Daniels. Per NGS...He has averaged 1.0 fewer designed rushes per game this season compared to 2024.
This is also a tough spot for Washington’s rushing attack to get back on track.
The Seahawks lead the NFL, allowing just 3.0 yards per carry to running backs in 2025.
According to Next Gen Stats…no other team has allowed 3.0-or-fewer yards per carry to running backs over a full season since 2020. The Seahawks defense has allowed -113 rushing yards over expected this season, the fewest in the NFL and a big difference to the league-high +1,039 RYOE they allowed from 2022-2024.
One RB this season has hit the over on their rushing yards prop versus Seattle.
Props:
- Jayden Daniels: Under 8.5 carries
- Jacory Croskey-Merritt: Under 44.5 rushing yards
- Kenneth Walker: OVER 53.5 rushing yards
- Zach Charbonnet: Anytime TD (+110)
Full SNF Card
- Seahawks -3