Sunday Night Football brings us a classic NFC spotlight game as the Vikings head to Dallas, where the Cowboys have been obliterating teams at home all season. Dallas is averaging over 33 points per game at AT&T Stadium, and now they face a Minnesota squad coming off a rare offensive spark - but still wildly inconsistent week to week.
Whether it's J.J. McCarthy under pressure vs. this Dallas pass rush or how the Cowboys adjust to Brian Flores’ blitz-heavy scheme, SNF sets up as a perfect prop-hunting environment.
And remember - you don’t need to guess. The BettingPros Prop Bet Cheat Sheet is hitting 57% on 5-Star NFL props with +92.6 units and 7.5% ROI this season. Rushing & passing attempts have been especially profitable with 60-62% hit rates and 15% ROI.
Use the edges the market hasn't caught up to - that's how you win Sunday night.
Sunday Night Football NFL Betting Primer
Minnesota Vikings vs Dallas Cowboys - Sunday, 8:20 PM ET (SNF)
Erickson's Pick: Dallas -5.5
Confidence: ★★★★
Trends:
- The Cowboys have won each of their last 11 December home games against NFC opponents.
- Eight of the Cowboys' last 10 games have gone OVER the total points line.
- The Vikings have failed to cover the spread in each of their last seven December games as underdogs.
- Each of the Vikings’ last five games has gone UNDER the total points line.
- Minnesota is 0-5 ATS after a win (0-5 straight up) and 1-3 ATS as a road underdog this season.
- All but 16 of the Vikings' last 44 games have been decided by eight points or fewer (76%).
- Dallas is 8-3 ATS with rest advantage since 2023 (73%).
- Dallas has won 15 of their last 16 games after a loss
Overall:
I'm comfortable laying the points with Dallas at home. The Cowboys have extra rest coming off Thursday night, their pass rush can cause real problems for J.J. McCarthy, and Minnesota has been a classic "buy high, get burned" team - they're 0-5 against the spread after wins. I expect the Cowboys to control this game, cover the six, and still give you plenty of paths to an over if the Vikings do their part.
Per Next Gen Stats, Dak Prescott has thrown for at least 265 yards in each of his last four games, and has averaged 329.5 yards per game since Week 11, the second most in that span. The Vikings blitz on 49.2% of defensive snaps, the most in 2025. Prescott has a 106.2 passer rating against the blitz and has thrown for 1,123 yards (third most in NFL) in 2025.
That being said - Minnesota's defense has a way of keeping games close.
Ie. Tease the total in the game down to 40.5 (take the over) and DAL -2.5 (-115 odds on DraftKings Sportsbook).
Aaron Jones has 2.5-plus catches in 4-of-5 games. It didn't hit last week in a total blowout win. However, Jones still had two targets. Dallas has allowed the second-most receptions to RBs this season (5.4/game).
Additionally, I'd expect Jones to see some easy layup targets if McCarthy's quick passing game carries over from last week.
Per Next Gen Stats: J.J. McCarthy averaged a time to throw of 2.56 seconds in Week 14 against the Commanders, the fastest in his career by 0.28 seconds. On quick passes (under 2.5 seconds), he completed 10-of-11 attempts for 85 yards and two touchdowns, all career-highs. Entering Week 14, McCarthy had not completed more than six quick passes or thrown for more than 70 quick yards in any of the first six games of his career. The Cowboys have struggled with defending quick passes in 2025, allowing the 2nd-highest completion rate (80.9%) and tied for the 10th-most touchdowns (10).
Justin Jefferson was held to 11 receiving yards on two receptions in Week 14 against the Commanders. This marks Jefferson’s second-fewest receiving yards in a game in his career, following his career-low four receiving yards in Week 13 against the Seahawks. The superstar WR did have another catch for 10 yards wiped off on a holding call: 47 incomplete air yards and one end-zone target.
No. 1 matchup for WRs is Dallas. Most TDs allowed this season to WRs. Now or never.
Props:
Full SNF Card:
- Dallas -5.5
- Dallas -2.5 + Over 40.5 (teaser lines)
