The premise of NFL survivor pools is simple: Pick one team each week to win, and you cannot pick the same team twice. But talk to any survivor pool contestants who have been knocked out of their pools before the end of September, and they will tell you it is not that easy. You will come to learn that with our weekly NFL survivor pool advice.
This year’s NFL Week 1 is setting up to be a difficult one from a survivor pool perspective, as 11 of the 16 games have point spreads of 3.5 or lower.
NFL Survivor in September is a gauntlet.
Since 2015, the median result is only 35% of entries surviving the first four weeks.
But every season tells a different story.
2024: under 5% survived.
2025: more than 50%.You need a plan before Week 1, but you also need to expect...
— PoolGenius (@PoolGenius) September 3, 2026
Each week, I will advise which teams are best to select in survivor pools. Bettors who don’t enter these types of pools can still use this information from a betting perspective if they are comfortable laying big odds on Moneylines. Here are my top NFL survivor pool picks for Week 1.
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NFL Survivor Pool Advice for Week 1: Picks & Predictions (2026)
(Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook)
Here is a list of odds for the top 10 favorites to win their matchups in Week 1.
Week 1 NFL Moneyline Odds
| TEAM | ODDS |
| Los Angeles Chargers | -550 |
| Jacksonville Jaguars | -410 |
| Detroit Lions | -305 |
| Philadelphia Eagles | -218 |
| Cincinnati Bengals | -205 |
| Los Angeles Rams | -192 |
| Las Vegas Raiders | -192 |
| Pittsburgh Steelers | -185 |
| Seattle Seahawks | -180 |
| Baltimore Ravens | -175 |
Safest Picks
Los Angeles Chargers, Jacksonville Jaguars, Detroit Lions
If you want to avoid the dreaded Week 1 survivor pool loss, you can do no worse than picking the only team that is a double-digit favorite. The Chargers are in little jeopardy of losing to a Cardinals team that ranked 26th in total quarterback ranking despite running the highest percentage of designed pass plays last season. Los Angeles' season was derailed by offensive line issues that led to the second-most sacks allowed in the league. That's why I'm excited to back the Chargers while they're at their healthiest.
Cleveland went with the surprise choice of naming Deshaun Watson as its starting quarterback. Since joining the Browns in 2022, among 50 quarterbacks with 15 starts, Watson ranks 46th in off-target percentage, 48th in yards per attempt and 49th in total quarterback rating. I don't expect Watson, who is making his first start in 693 days, to beat a Jaguars team that was playing its best football at the end of last season. Jacksonville looks to regain the momentum from its eight-game winning streak to finish the regular season, when Trevor Lawrence had a 19:5 touchdown-to-interception ratio.
If we're nitpicking anything about Detroit from last season, it is its offensive line, which ranked 31st in pass-block win rate and 20th in run-block win rate. And the Lions’ defense also allowed the most pass plays of 30+ yards.
Detroit isn't in serious jeopardy of losing to New Orleans, but it's a team to avoid using this week, as it has more appeal in survivor pools in a Week 3 home game against the Jets or a Week 5 road matchup against the Cardinals.
Risky Popular Plays
Philadelphia Eagles, Los Angeles Rams
Philadelphia is the only team favored by more than 4.5 points to land in the “risky play” category. But a lot of that has to do with the fact that it is also the only team of that bunch playing a divisional game. Jayden Daniels is also healthy under center, and that cannot be understated. In two seasons with Kliff Kingsbury as his offensive coordinator, Daniels was 14-10 with 205 passing yards per game, a 37:14 touchdown-to-interception ratio and a 43% third-down conversion rate. All other Commanders quarterbacks in that span combined to go 3-7 with 187 passing yards per game, an 11:7 touchdown-to-interception ratio and a 38% third-down conversion rate. Kingsbury is no longer with the team.
Los Angeles is the preseason Super Bowl favorite, and that alone will make the Rams a popular survivor pool pick as early as this week versus the 49ers. In addition, San Francisco’s 2.7 yards per rush against the Rams in two games last season was its fewest against a single opponent in 2025. But this game is also in Australia, and the uncertainty about how each team will handle the travel and time difference makes it untouchable for me in survivor pools.
Contrarian Play to Beat a Large Pool
Las Vegas Raiders
If you want to zig while others zag, the Raiders are a great contrarian survivor pool pick this week, given their projected season wins total of 5.5 wins. Las Vegas is coming off a season where it ran the fewest plays per game and scored the fewest points per game. But Klint Kubiak was hired in large part to rejuvenate the offense, and should find immediate success with Kirk Cousins, who had a 10:5 touchdown-to-interception ratio in eight starts for Atlanta last season.
Mike Spector is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Mike, check out his archive and follow him @MikeSpector01.