NFL Survivor Pool Advice: Week 1 (2019)

An increasingly popular way to bet on the NFL and to stay involved for most of the season is a survivor pool (pick one winner of an NFL game each win, but you cannot use the same team twice). Some pools that have a big entry fee or a lot of participants can have prize pools in the tens of thousands. 

Depending on the size of the pool, one may employ different strategies. For example, if a pool does not have a lot of contestants, one may employ a less risky strategy and simply pick a big favorite each week. On the other hand, if one is trying to best a pool of thousands of people, they may employ a contrarian style. A way to be contrarian is to pick teams that are less likely to be selected by others and save the better teams for later in the season while others may already have used them. 

Each week I will be providing advice for which teams are best to select in survivor pools. Bettors that don't enter these types of pools can still use this information from a betting perspective if they are comfortable laying big odds on money lines for example. 

Here is a list of odds for all the favorites to win their matchups in Week 1 (odds courtesy of Fanduel).

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Safest Picks

Philadelphia Eagles (-420), Seattle Seahawks (-400)
I am going with chalk in Week 1, predicting that the two safest picks are the two biggest favorites. There are two general rules I try to follow when making survivor picks: when possible never pick a road team and try as much as possible to avoid division games.

I am violating my second rule in picking the Eagles as I usually avoid inter-division games. Since divisional opponents meet twice a year, there is more familiarity between the teams, which produces a greater chance for an upset. I will make an exception in the Eagles-Redskins matchup since I think the Redskins will be one of the worst teams in the league this year. In addition, Eagles quarterback Carson Wentz has a history of injuries, so I'd look to take the Eagles early while you know Wentz will be their quarterback.

The Seattle Seahawks are also a great pick this week as they play the injury-plagued Cincinnati Bengals. The Seahawks may hover around .500 this year, but this is one win most will feel confident about. CenturyLink Field is one of the best homefield advantages in all of football. The Bengals offensive line has been decimated by injury, and star receiver A.J. Green will miss most of the first half of the season. I envision the Seahawks loading up to stop Joe Mixon, making Andy Dalton and the Cincinnati offense one-dimensional. Given how balanced the NFC West is projected to be, it would be smart to jump on the Seahawks now as they will have a lot of head-scratching games in the future.

Riskier Plays That Will Be Popular

Dallas Cowboys (-380), New Orleans Saints (-300), Baltimore Ravens (-290), Los Angeles Chargers (-280)
The Dallas Cowboys are 5-1 in their last six home games since 2013 against the New York Giants. 

The New Orleans Saints are a big favorite over the Houston Texans, a team which won their division last year. The Saints are prone to early-season upsets. Does anyone remember the Tampa Bay Buccaneers going to the Superdome and pulling off the upset in Week 1 last year? The Texans are a lot better team than those Buccaneers.

The Baltimore Ravens are the highest priced road favorites and for good reason. The Dolphins are in the midst of a rebuild, as evident by recently trading away Laremy Tunsil and Kenny Stills. However, I avoid road teams at all costs when possible. Many superior teams have gone to Miami and lost in recent years since they get worn down by the heat and humidity. The Ravens will have spots I'd feel more comfortable with in the future. 

The Los Angeles Chargers are suddenly a big favorite over the Indianapolis Colts after the surprising news of Andrew Luck's retirement. However, the Colts roster is still loaded, and Jacoby Brissett isn't exactly an inexperienced backup. Tread lightly if picking this game. 

Contrarian Play to Beat a Large Pool

Detroit Lions (-140)
The Detroit Lions are another example of a road favorite that I almost always avoid. However, they are not the worst contrarian play to employ this week. They face an Arizona Cardinals team with a lot of question marks, given that it is the debut of coach Kliff Kingsbury and quarterback Kyler Murray. Is the Cardinals offense as bad as we saw in the preseason? Or will the offense open it up and show what they are capable of? That is the biggest risk with picking the Lions this week. However, there are not going to be many games where the Lions look like a good bet, so if you pick them this week and they win you are at a huge advantage. One other tidbit that helps their case is that the Cardinals will be without their top-two cornerbacks.

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Mike Spector is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Mike, check out his archive and follow him @MikeSpector01.