NFL Survivor Pool Advice: Week 1 (2020)

An increasingly popular way to bet on the NFL and to stay involved for most of the season is a survivor pool (pick one winner of an NFL game each win, but you cannot use the same team twice). Some pools that have a big entry fee or a lot of participants can have prize pools in the tens of thousands.

Depending on the size of the pool, one may employ different strategies. For example, if a pool does not have a lot of contestants, one may employ a less risky strategy and simply pick a big favorite each week. On the other hand, if one is trying to best a pool of thousands of people, they may employ a contrarian style. A way to be contrarian is to pick teams that are less likely to be selected by others and save the better teams for later in the season while others may already have used them.

Each week I will be providing advice for which teams are best to select in survivor pools. Bettors that don't enter these types of pools can still use this information from a betting perspective if they are comfortable laying big odds on money lines for example.

Here is a list of odds for all the favorites to win their matchups in Week 1 (odds courtesy of FanDuel).

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Safest Picks

Indianapolis Colts (-390), Buffalo Bills (-300)

Picking the Indianapolis Colts breaks a rule that I normally do not like violating in survivor pools. When at all possible, always aim to avoid division rivals where the favorite is on the road as the familiarity between the teams in hostile environments has been the breeding ground for many upsets in years past. However, the 2020 season will be different as many stadiums will have no fans or limited capacity for the time being. The Jaguars look like a team who have no problem vying for the No. 1 overall pick in next year's draft, especially after letting go of Leonard Fournette and Yannick Ngakoue. The Colts are a safe bet to start the Philip Rivers tenure off with a win.

The Buffalo Bills have not had this much optimism surrounding them entering a season in quite some time. They are co-favorites with the Patriots to win the AFC East, and are in search of their first division title since 1995. They have a great opportunity to take a first step towards a division title with a season-opening win over the Jets. New York seems like a team in disarray after the Jamal Adams trade and with Le'Veon Bell portrayed as at odds with head coach Adam Gase. The Jets will roll out a completely revamped offensive line in 2020, and that is not a good thing against a Buffalo defense that ranked third in the league last year. It will take the Jets time to gel, so Buffalo picking up a win over the division's projected worst team in Week 1 feels like a safe pick.

Riskier Plays That Will Be Popular

Kansas City Chiefs (-420), Baltimore Ravens (-360), New England Patriots (-320), San Francisco 49ers (-320), Philadelphia Eagles (-270), Pittsburgh Steelers (-245)

The Kansas City Chiefs are the biggest favorites on the board in Week 1, but do you trust them winning convincingly over a team that has made the playoffs four of the last five years? There are much better opportunities to use the Chiefs later in a year as opposed to betting against a team that has won at least nine games in five of the last six seasons. 

The Baltimore Ravens rolled through the regular season last year, going 14-2 and cruising to the top overall seed in the AFC playoffs. However, one of their two losses was a 40-25 home beatdown at the hands of the Cleveland Browns. The Browns once again made a number of key offseason additions and thus must be taken seriously as AFC North contenders entering the season.

The New England Patriots are big favorites to beat the rival Miami Dolphins in Week 1, but no one can predict the version of new quarterback Cam Newton that we will see. Is he completely healthy, or was there a reason he went unsigned for so long? We are better off waiting to see what the Patriots look like without Tom Brady under center before risking our survivor pool entries on them.

The San Francisco 49ers begin the defense of their NFC championship with a division rival who has been a thorn in their side. The 49ers beat the Cardinals twice last year, but both games were tough and the Cardinals averaged 25.5 PPG in the two games against them with a rookie quarterback under center. Now that Kyler Murray is in year two and has DeAndre Hopkins to throw the ball to, picking the 49ers is too risky a proposition.

Philadelphia opens up with Washington for the second season in a row. Those that took the Eagles in survivor pools last year were sweating it out when their team was down 20-7 at halftime. Philadelphia has suffered a number of worrisome injuries already between losing offensive linemen Andre Dillard for the year and promising rookie wide receiver Jalen Reagor for a couple weeks. Let's wait and see what the Washington Football Team looks like under new head coach Ron Rivera before jumping right in and picking against them.

The fact that the Pittsburgh Steelers went 8-8 last season despite getting just two starts from quarterback Ben Roethlisberger is a huge testament to their supporting cast. The Steelers bring back many pieces of a fifth-ranked defense and one that allowed just 18.9 PPG last season. However, I need to see that Roethlisberger is completely healthy and recovered from last season's elbow injury before picking them to win on the road at the Giants.

Contrarian Play To Beat a Large Pool

Las Vegas Raiders (-174)

The Las Vegas Raiders will have to wait a week before being able to unveil their new stadium in primetime on Monday Night Football. This week, the Raiders do have the "west coast team playing at 1:00 ET" factor working against them. However, they will have plenty of time getting adjusted to the time zone by kicking off the new season as opposed to having a game the week prior affect them. 

The Carolina Panthers have the third-best odds to finish the regular season with the worst record. New head coach Matt Rhule is an inspiring hire as he has turned his new teams around everywhere he has been. However, those turnarounds do not happen overnight. In a compromised offseason where a new coaching staff is breaking a new quarterback in under a new system, the Raiders make for a nice contrarian survivor pool play as the Panthers may take time to find their footing in 2020.

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Mike Spector is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Mike, check out his archive and follow him @MikeSpector01.