NFL Survivor Pool Advice: Week 10 (2020)

Survivor pool contestants everywhere likely have a few more gray hairs and higher blood pressure after a crazy Week 9. All of our "safest picks" last week had their scares as all three survived last-minute efforts from their opposition. The Chiefs needed a miss on a long game-winning field goal attempt from the Panthers to escape with a victory. The Texans escaped after denying the Jaguars on a game-tying two-point conversion attempt. Meanwhile, the Steelers looked lifeless through three quarters but eventually climbed themselves out of a double-digit hole and avoided the biggest upset of the year against the Cowboys.

Favorites went 9-5 SU overall in Week 6, though six of the top seven moneyline favorites all won outright. The five favorites who lost were the Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-250), Arizona Cardinals (-205), Washington Football Team (-164), Seattle Seahawks (-158), and Los Angeles Chargers (-122).

Like always, my selections for this week will be broken down by the following categories: safest picks, riskier plays that will be popular, and contrarian plays to beat a large pool. Even though survivor pool rules say you cannot pick the same team twice, I will outline multiple scenarios in case bettors wish to navigate their own path. Here is a list of odds for all the favorites to win their matchups in Week 10 (odds courtesy of FanDuel).

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Safest Picks

Green Bay Packers (-950), New Orleans Saints (-400), Pittsburgh Steelers (-390)
The Green Bay Packers are the only double-digit favorite in Week 10 at the moment, as they are 14-point home favorites over the Jacksonville Jaguars. The Jaguars very nearly ruined survivor pools for a number of contestants last week after a late comeback against the Texans fell short. Those that may be worried that Jacksonville can upset Green Bay need not be worried. Their game last week was a home game against a division rival in which their opponent did not have any game film on rookie quarterback Jake Luton. There is not much Luton will do this week that will catch Green Bay by surprise. In addition, Aaron Rodgers and the Green Bay offense should be able to feast on a Jacksonville defense that allows 30.9 PPG which ranks 31st in the league.

The New Orleans Saints turned in arguably the best performance of the season last week given the circumstances and their opponent. They held the Tampa Bay Buccaneers to 194 total yards and forced three interceptions from Tom Brady in a dominating 38-3 win. While San Francisco is getting many of their weapons back after being put on the reserve/COVID-19 list last week, Nick Mullens does not appear ready to overcome a banged-up defense and put enough points up on a dominating Saints defense to win in the Superdome.

After the way the Pittsburgh Steelers played against the Dallas Cowboys, it will likely give many survivor pool contestants pause from using them this week. Perhaps their lethargic effort was a result of not getting motivated to face Garrett Gilbert as much as it is possible that the weight of being undefeated is getting to them. However, head coach Mike Tomlin has too much respect for the AFC North to take rookie quarterback Joe Burrow and the Cincinnati Bengals lightly. The Bengals are 6-2 ATS this season, but they likely will likely have a hard time scoring against the fifth-ranked Steelers scoring defense.

Riskier Plays That Will Be Popular

Baltimore Ravens (-270), Las Vegas Raiders (-215)
Fresh off a statement win over the Indianapolis Colts, the Baltimore Ravens hit the road once again to take on the struggling New England Patriots. However, Baltimore's offensive performance against the Colts was less than inspiring as they were held to 2.9 yards per carry. While their rushing attack should have more success against a 28th-ranked Patriots run defense, it would be foolish to ever bet against Bill Belichick in Foxborough.

The Las Vegas Raiders will be a popular pick as they have won three of their last four games, all of which have come on the road. However, their popularity this week may have as much to do with the Denver Broncos as they got down 34-13 to the Atlanta Falcons before two late touchdowns made the score close. Regardless of how poor Denver has played, divisional games are always tricky and the Raiders are an uninspiring 1-2 at home despite their stellar play of late.

Contrarian Play To Beat a Large Pool

Miami Dolphins (-144)
If you did not use the Miami Dolphins at home in Week 6 against the New York Jets, they are an interesting option as a contrarian play this week. The Dolphins have beaten two of the NFC's best teams in the Rams and Cardinals since Tua Tagovailoa has taken over as starting quarterback. They have averaged 31 PPG in those two games, and their defense has pitched in with scores of their own in back-to-back weeks. The Chargers have to be devastated after two consecutive crushing losses to the Broncos and Raiders. Now they have to travel cross-country to play a Dolphins team that is historically tough to beat in the heat and humidity even when they have poor teams. Just a warning to all of those making this bet that you are sure to be in for an emotional roller coaster as the Chargers appear incapable of playing a "normal" game.

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