Week 8 was a brutal one from a survivor pool perspective, as it was the first week of the NFL season where more underdogs than favorites won outright. It was not just the fact that underdogs went 8-7, but that one of the week’s biggest favorites lost and likely eliminated many people.
The Cincinnati Bengals were a likely popular pick given that they faced the previously one-win Jets with Mike White making his first career start at quarterback. The Bengals had an 11-point fourth quarter lead but then collapsed and allowed the game’s final 14 points. However, timing can be everything in survivor pools, as many contestants made it out unscathed this week if they used Cincinnati in their Week 4 Thursday night contest against the Jaguars.
On paper, Week 9 looks like another tough week as ten of the 15 favorites have point spreads of less than a touchdown. However, three favorites have double-digit point spreads, so survivor pool contestants should feel good about their chances this week if they have one of those teams still available.
Like last week, my selections for this week will be broken down into the following categories: safest picks, riskier plays that will be popular, and contrarian plays to beat a large pool. Even though survivor pool rules say you cannot pick the same team twice, I will outline multiple scenarios if bettors wish to navigate their own path.
Here is a list of odds for all the favorites to win their matchups in Week 9 (odds courtesy of FanDuel).
Safest Picks
Buffalo Bills (-1100), Indianapolis Colts (-560), Dallas Cowboys (-450)
The Buffalo Bills are the biggest favorites for the second consecutive week, as they are two-touchdown road favorites over the Jacksonville Jaguars. The Jaguars have not won a game on American soil yet this year, as their lone win of the season was in London against the Dolphins. Buffalo started slowly against the Dolphins last week, entering the half tied 3-3. However, the Bills outscored the Dolphins 23-8 in the second half and improved to 5-2. While the familiarity between division rivals can explain Buffalo’s struggles against Miami, the Bills should have no such troubles with the Jaguars this week. Jacksonville had to fly all back across the country after last week’s 24-point loss to the Seahawks.
The Indianapolis Colts were dealt a gut-punching overtime loss by the Titans last week, in a game they were leading 14-0 early. The Colts now trail the Titans by three games in the AFC South race, which is four games when including Tennessee’s head-to-head tiebreaker. However, the good news is that Indianapolis has a short week to stew over that loss, with a game against the Jets on Thursday night. While New York is coming off a stunning upset of Cincinnati, we do not expect Mike White to throw for another 400+ yards and three touchdowns like he did in Week 8. The Colts had a historically demanding schedule to this point, but they are much better than their 3-5 record indicates.
The Dallas Cowboys turned in their best defensive performance of the season last week, with season lows allowed in points (16) and yards (278) to the Vikings. However, perhaps the most impressive part of Dallas’ win is that their offense did not miss a beat without Dak Prescott, as Cooper Rush threw for 325 yards in his first career start. Though Denver is 4-4, they have the feel of a team “waving the white flag” on the season after trading away Von Miller. That is a massive blow to their second-ranked scoring defense.
Riskier Plays That Will Be Popular
Los Angeles Rams (-360), Pittsburgh Steelers (-290), New Orleans Saints (-260)
Like with picking Arizona over the Packers last week, many will select the Rams to beat the 6-2 Titans simply because of injury news. All-Pro running back Derrick Henry is out indefinitely with a foot injury, while the Rams received a big boost with the acquisition of Von Miller. Miller and Aaron Donald each rank in the top four of the league in pressures per game over the last five seasons, and they should be able to make Titans quarterback Ryan Tannehill’s life miserable in this game. However, with three other huge favorites on the slate, it does not make a lot of sense to risk your survivor pool lives opposing a six-win team with victories over Buffalo and Kansas City this year.
The Pittsburgh Steelers have won three consecutive games after a 1-3 start and host the Chicago Bears on Monday Night Football this week. Though it still resulted in a loss, Bears quarterback Justin Fields is coming off his best game of the season last week. The Steelers have run for more than 100 yards as a team in each of the previous three games, and Chicago’s defense ranks fifth against the run. However, there are better spots to use Pittsburgh and much safer picks out there this week.
The New Orleans Saints are riding high after an emotional 36-27 win over the Buccaneers. However, the Saints are not immune to bad losses (see Giants game in Week 4), and this could be a letdown spot after a win over one of the best teams in football. In addition, Trevor Siemian makes his first start with the team in replace of the injured Jameis Winston, and one would not expect him to have their offense humming as well as it has been to this point.
Contrarian Play To Beat a Large Pool
Miami Dolphins (-290)
Though it seems blasphemous to risk survivor pool entries on a team that has lost seven consecutive games, the Dolphins are a great fallback plan for those that do not have the Bills, Colts, or Cowboys available. Davis Mills is simply not the answer for the Texans at quarterback, and Houston has totaled just eight points in their last three road games combined. The Dolphins look like they are ready to turn the corner defensively after holding Buffalo’s high-powered offense to three first-half points last week. Thus, this could be another ugly offensive day for Mills and the Texans.
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Mike Spector is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Mike, check out his archive and follow him @MikeSpector01.