NFL Survivor Pool Advice: Week 11 (2020)

With so many bad teams in the NFL this year, survivor pool contests everywhere are seemingly more crowded than usual as we enter Week 11. Though the Green Bay Packers gave their backers a sweat in holding off the Jacksonville Jaguars, it is likely you survived yet another week given the lack of upsets in Week 10.

Favorites went 10-3 SU last week, including outright wins from five of the top six favorites. The three favorites who lost were the Baltimore Ravens (-270), Philadelphia Eagles (-186), and Tennessee Titans (-126).

Like always, my selections for this week will be broken down by the following categories: safest picks, riskier plays that will be popular, and contrarian plays to beat a large pool. Even though survivor pool rules say you cannot pick the same team twice, I will outline multiple scenarios in case bettors wish to navigate their own path. Here is a list of odds for all the favorites to win their matchups in Week 11.

Odds courtesy of FanDuel

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Safest Picks

Pittsburgh Steelers (-500), Los Angeles Chargers (-400)
This week in survivor contests may be a tricky one considering we only have two "safe picks" to advise. There have been opportunities to use the Pittsburgh Steelers in survivor pools the last two weeks against the Cowboys and Bengals. Hopefully, you still have the Steelers left to use as they look like the safest pick on the board this week against the Jacksonville Jaguars. The 9-0 Steelers should roll the 1-8 Jaguars, provided they are not looking ahead too much to next week's Thanksgiving night showdown with the Ravens. Head coach Mike Tomlin seemed to drive home the point well they that cannot take any team lightly after almost losing to the Cowboys. They responded well with a convincing 36-10 win over the Bengals and should follow that same blueprint on the road in Jacksonville this week.

Another week and another opportunity to pick on the lowly New York Jets in survivor pools. The Jets are running out of opportunities to avoid going 0-16. Coming off a bye week and facing a 2-7 Los Angeles Chargers team should be viewed as a decent opportunity to pick up your first win. However, the Chargers are not as bad as their record would indicate. All seven of their losses have come by one possession, and the team clearly has played better offensively since naming rookie Justin Herbert as their starting quarterback. In Week 11 of survivor pools the pickings are going to start to get slim. However, one can do much worse than expecting the Chargers to beat the 0-9 Jets who have lost their 9 games by an average of 16.3 PPG.

Riskier Plays That Will Be Popular

Baltimore Ravens (-270), Kansas City Chiefs (-270), New Orleans Saints (-230)
Despite coming off a bad loss to the New England Patriots, the Baltimore Ravens will still generate a lot of looks in survivor pools given they are near touchdown favorites over the Tennessee Titans. However, the Titans pounded the Ravens in the Divisional Round of the playoffs last year. Throw in the fact that Tennessee is coming off extra rest having last played on Thursday night and the Ravens may be looking ahead to their showdown with the Steelers next week, and this is not a game I would want any part of.

The Kansas City Chiefs are 17-1 SU in their last 18 games. The lone loss in that span was a Week 5 loss at home to the Las Vegas Raiders. The Chiefs will certainly have revenge on their mind as they travel to Las Vegas off a bye week. Head coach Andy Reid is a spectacular 18-3 SU off byes in his coaching career. However, as Week 5 proved, the Raiders have the formula for how to beat the Chiefs and there will certainly be better spots to use Kansas City than against a team they have already lost to at home this year.

New Orleans Saints quarterback Drew Brees has been diagnosed with multiple rib fractures and a collapsed lung. Thus, free agent signing Jameis Winston will likely make his first start against the Atlanta Falcons this week. The Saints will still be a popular pick this week despite this news given how poorly the Falcons have played this year. However, the Falcons have won three of their last six games in New Orleans. In addition, Jameis Winston was a turnover machine as he led the league with 30 interceptions last year so it will be hard to trust him in his first start with his new team.

Contrarian Play To Beat a Large Pool

Minnesota Vikings (-360)
If the Minnesota Vikings were to lose to the Dallas Cowboys this week, their scheduling disadvantage would likely have a lot to do with it. The Cowboys are coming off a bye while the Vikings play on a short week after their Monday night contest with the Bears. Andy Dalton could be back for his first game action since Dallas's embarrassing 25-3 loss to Washington. Even if Dalton were to start, the Vikings are built to exploit Dallas's 31st-ranked rush defense that allows 157.0 YPG on the ground. The NFL's leading rusher Dalvin Cook is already licking his chops. 

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