NFL Survivor Pool Advice: Week 12 (2020)

As we enter Week 12 of the NFL season, the list of teams that can be targeted in survivor pools is growing. Cincinnati quarterback Joe Burrow suffered a torn ACL and MCL and is out for the year, thus making the Bengals and Ryan Finley a prime candidate to go winless the rest of the year. Add them to the list with the Jets and Jaguars, and survivor pool contestants still alive in their pools are gaining confidence as we enter the home stretch.

Favorites went 9-5 SU last week, though two of those losses came from the top four favorites. The five favorites who lost were the Minnesota Vikings (-360), Baltimore Ravens (-270), Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-174), Miami Dolphins (-146), and New England Patriots (-118).

Like always, my selections for this week will be broken down into the following categories: safest picks, riskier plays that will be popular, and contrarian plays to beat a large pool. Even though survivor pool rules say you cannot pick the same team twice, I will outline multiple scenarios in case bettors wish to navigate their own path. Here is a list of odds for all the favorites to win their matchups in Week 12.

*Odds courtesy of FanDuel

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Safest Picks

Green Bay Packers (-405), Cleveland Browns (-280), New Orleans Saints (-255),
There was a time when the Green Bay Packers vs. Chicago Bears game was must-see television, as they were always close games and always close battles. That does not apply this year, or especially this week given the state of the Bears quarterback position. It is unclear who will start for Chicago, as Mitchell Trubisky and Nick Foles are both dealing with injuries. And if Tyler Bray were to make an emergency start if neither of the other two could play, the Packers become an automatic pick if you still have them available. Either way, the Packers know how far a win over the Bears this week will go towards helping them clinch the NFC North division, as they would move three games ahead with five games to play. 

With many survivor pool contestants likely having used the Packers already, the Cleveland Browns have a chance to be the most popular survivor pick this week. Though the Jacksonville Jaguars nearly pulled upsets over the Texans and Packers in Jake Luton’s first two starts, they were exposed by the Steelers last week. Cleveland has an underrated rush defense, which is important considering Jacksonville does not have many weapons outside of running back James Robinson. Meanwhile, the two-headed monster of Nick Chubb and Kareem Hunt are licking their chops at the prospect of facing Jacksonville’s 24th-ranked run defense. Cleveland does still play the Jets later this year, but that is four weeks away and contestants should only worry about advancing this week.

I was tempted to put the New Orleans Saints in the “risky play” category, but I do not see Denver Broncos quarterback Drew Lock beating the Saints given how dominant that unit looked last week. New Orleans held the Atlanta Falcons to 248 total yards, and they have not allowed more than 13 points to an opponent in three straight weeks. After a shaky start, Taysom Hill looked comfortable by the end of the game as he amassed 284 total yards and scored two touchdowns. The Broncos are coming off an upset of the Dolphins, and picking a road team to win in the altitude is always scary. However, the Saints are more talented than the Dolphins on both sides of the ball, even with Hill as their starting quarterback.

Riskier Plays That Will Be Popular

Miami Dolphins (-280), Seattle Seahawks (-245), Buffalo Bills (-240), Minnesota Vikings (-205)
The Miami Dolphins land in the “risky play” category, even though they are playing the winless Jets. Contestants should be worried about the fact that Tua Tagovailoa was benched last week, as his confidence heading into this week may be shaken. However, this bet is more about how well home underdogs in divisional games have played. Home ‘dogs facing divisional opponents are 14-4 ATS this year. Given that the Dolphins are favored by less than a touchdown, oddsmakers feel this will be a tight game late in the fourth quarter.

The Seattle Seahawks find themselves in another primetime game, this time as road favorites on Monday night against the Philadelphia Eagles. The Eagles offense looks in disarray right now, with Carson Wentz committing many costly turnovers. Philadelphia has not scored more than 23 points in four straight weeks, which likely will not be good enough against Seattle’s high-powered offense. However, the Eagles are still a talented team on paper that is capable of clicking at any moment. There are better spots to use Russell Wilson and the Seahawks if you have not used them already.

If the Minnesota Vikings did not burn you last week with their loss to the Dallas Cowboys, they are likely to be picked by many this week against the Carolina Panthers. Carolina is likely to be without Christian McCaffrey once again, and may also be without quarterback Teddy Bridgewater for a second straight game. However, the Panthers’ defense is playing very well and is coming off a shutout against the Detroit Lions. They are more than capable of shutting down Kirk Cousins and the Vikings’ offense, and picking Minnesota off a shaky upset may not be the smartest move.

Contrarian Play To Beat a Large Pool

New York Giants (-250)
Not many people envisioned the New York Giants as a smart survivor pool pick entering Week 12, but the circumstances have changed drastically. We mentioned in the opening that the Bengals will be starting Ryan Finley in place of the injured Joe Burrow. Finley made three starts last year and had a 47.1% completion percentage while averaging less than 160 YPG. The Giants have won two straight games and seem to be buying into first-year head coach Joe Judge’s philosophy and concepts. If you wanted to save some of the better teams even this late in the season, the Giants are a great pick and should get you through this week.

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