As we head into Week 15, many survivor pools start requiring their contestants to make two selections per week. In most years that would seem like a daunting task considering how few elite teams are left to choose from. However, there are so many bad football teams in 2020 that there are still likely to be plenty of enticing matchups to choose from. From a betting perspective, you know there is a clear divide in talent when there are five favorites with moneyline odds of greater than -400.
Favorites went 11-5 SU last week, though six of the top seven favorites won outright. The five favorites who lost were the New Orleans Saints (-310), San Francisco 49ers (-205), Carolina Panthers (-180), Atlanta Falcons (-134), and Houston Texans (-130).
Like always, my selections for this week will be broken down into the following categories: safest picks, riskier plays that will be popular, and contrarian plays to beat a large pool. Even though survivor pool rules say you cannot pick the same team twice, I will outline multiple scenarios in case bettors wish to navigate their own path. Here is a list of odds for all the favorites to win their matchups in Week 15.
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Safest Picks
Los Angeles Rams (-1600), Pittsburgh Steelers (-620), Tennessee Titans (-600), Green Bay Packers (-405), Buffalo Bills (-300)
Two weeks after the Las Vegas Raiders were the biggest road favorites they had been since 2002 when they played the New York Jets, the Los Angeles Rams are the biggest favorites they have been since 2001 when they face the Jets this week. New York going 0-16 is more than a possibility at this point, and the Rams have everything going for them in this matchup. They are on longer rest having last played on Thursday night, and face a Jets team who is playing their second West Coast road game in a row. The Jets seemed disinterested to compete in a 40-3 loss to the Seahawks, and now arguably face a more physical team with a much better defense this week.
Panic is starting to set in after two consecutive losses, but the Pittsburgh Steelers have a great opportunity to get right against the Cincinnati Bengals this week. The Steelers beat the Bengals 36-10 in Week 10, and Cincinnati has topped that pedestrian point total in just one game since. Cincinnati has lost three of their last four games to NFC East teams by an average of 12 PPG. The Steelers are head and shoulders better than those teams, and this one could get ugly quick.
The Tennessee Titans were always going to be big favorites over the Detroit Lions, but their odds will see a massive surge if Lions quarterback Matthew Stafford is ruled out this week. Stafford left last week’s game late in the fourth quarter with a rib injury, and we now await word on the severity of that injury. The Lions have the league’s 29th-ranked run defense, which is never a good recipe when facing the league’s leading rusher in Derrick Henry. A second straight 200+ yard day may be in order for the bruising back.
By virtue of New Orleans’s stunning loss to the Philadelphia Eagles, the Green Bay Packers enter Week 15 as the No. 1 seed in the NFC. The Packers are not about to squander their opportunity to be the only team in the conference with a bye in the playoffs by losing to the 4-9 Panthers. Carolina may get a boost from the return of Christian McCaffrey, but even if he is back Aaron Rodgers and the Green Bay offense should prove to be too much. The game could kick off with temperatures in the high teens, and the Packers are much more used to that cold than the Panthers are.
The Buffalo Bills are coming off back-to-back impressive wins over the 49ers and Steelers in front of a national audience. They once again get the national spotlight with a rare standalone Saturday afternoon game against the Broncos. The Bills have a two game lead in the AFC East with three games left to play. They have not won the division since 1995. Though a trip to Denver could be considered a letdown spot after an emotionally charged win on Monday night against the Steelers, they will not squander an opportunity to do something the franchise has not done in 25 years by losing a game of this magnitude.
Riskier Plays That Will Be Popular
Baltimore Ravens (-700), Indianapolis Colts (-300), Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-260), Seattle Seahawks (-240)
The Baltimore Ravens are quite possibly our highest-priced moneyline favorite to land in the risky play category this year. The reason has nothing to do with their Monday night performance, as their offense and specifically their running game was nothing short of sensational. It has more to do with the fact of how pesky the Jacksonville Jaguars have been for a month and a half. Outside of two poor performances against the Steelers and Titans, the Jaguars had opportunities to win each of their last seven games. The Jaguars have switched back to a fully healthy Gardner Minshew at quarterback, and he seemed to revive the offense in limited action. The Ravens are a solid pick if you still have them available, but do not be surprised if the game is closer than the oddsmakers predict it will be.
The Indianapolis Colts play the Houston Texans for the second time in three weeks. If that familiarity between them is not scary enough, the Texans nearly upset the Colts in the first matchup. A late fourth quarter fumble by Deshaun Watson deep in Indianapolis’s territory prevented Houston from pulling the upset, and another tough battle could be in store this week.
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers did not look as sharp as many expected them to coming off a bye to face the Vikings. Though they won by 12, they were helped out tremendously by Dan Bailey’s kicking problems as he missed three field goals and an extra point for Minnesota. The porous Vikings pass defense held Tom Brady to just 196 yards passing and now there are reports that running back Ronald Jones may have a fractured pinky. Atlanta has won six of the last seven meetings between these teams, and even though Tom Brady was not the quarterback for any of those losses, a trend like that should give survivor pool contestants pause.
The Seattle Seahawks are 5.5 point road favorites against the first place Washington Football Team. This is due in large part due to a calf injury that Washington quarterback Alex Smith suffered that forced him to leave last week’s game. If Dwayne Haskins were needed to start for Washington this week, that would severely limit Washington’s offensive potential. However, their defense is good enough to keep them in any football game, and we just saw the Giants’ ability to shut down this Seattle offense two weeks ago.
Contrarian Play To Beat a Large Pool
Cleveland Browns (-198)
Someone had to lose the Monday night thriller, and unfortunately for Ohioans it was the Cleveland Browns. However, there are more positives than negatives that the Browns can take away from the loss, starting with the fact that they scored 42 points on a very good Ravens defense. The Giants came crashing down to earth after their four-game winning streak was snapped by the Arizona Cardinals last week. New York managed just seven points against Arizona, and statistically speaking Cleveland’s defense is better than Arizona’s. The Browns do play the Jets next week, but if you cannot afford to save them and are desperate for a pick to survive this week, you can do much worse than picking the Browns.
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