So you thought lasting 17 weeks in a survivor pool was easy, huh? You thought that these pools were more of a “walk in a park” because the Jets were destined to go 0-16, and there were several other terrible teams like the Jaguars and Bengals to pick on. With so many drama-free weeks in survivor pools this year, Week 15 was anything but, as history was made on many levels.
Two NFL underdogs of 14+ points won outright in the same week for the first time since Week 13 of the 1973 season. https://t.co/J2dNbuRnsP
— David Payne Purdum (@DavidPurdum) December 22, 2020
#Jets 9th NFL upset by an underdog bigger than 2 TDs (going back 32 seasons) … 9 wins; 141 losses
8 of 9 big upsets Week 10 or later
5 big upsets between 1992-1995
4 big upsets in the 25 years since pic.twitter.com/tPnyUeGgVT— RJ Bell (@RJinVegas) December 21, 2020
A $100 money-line parlay on the Bengals and Jets would've paid around $13,000.
— David Bearman (@DavidBearman) December 22, 2020
Favorites went 11-5 SU last week, but two of the losses were from the top three favorites. Sometimes, it’s better to be lucky than good in survivor pools, since you would most likely have picked the Rams or Steelers if you had them available. The five favorites who lost were the Los Angeles Rams (-1600), Pittsburgh Steelers (-620), Las Vegas Raiders (-198), Minnesota Vikings (-176), and San Francisco 49ers (-148).
Like always, my selections for this week will be broken down into the following categories: safest picks, riskier plays that will be popular, and contrarian plays to beat a large pool. Even though survivor pool rules say you cannot pick the same team twice, I will outline multiple scenarios in case bettors wish to navigate their own path. Here is a list of odds for all the favorites to win their matchups in Week 16.
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Safest Picks
Baltimore Ravens (-590), Kansas City Chiefs (-490), Cleveland Browns (-460), Houston Texans (-400), Chicago Bears (-350)
Though the Baltimore Ravens would still not be a playoff team if the postseason started today, they are starting to take on the aura of a team that nobody wants to see in the playoffs. Their running game is rolling, and Lamar Jackson is returning to MVP form. Baltimore’s offense has averaged 40.3 PPG, and the Ravens are 4-0 ATS in their last four games. If that wasn’t enough, Lamar Jackson has never lost a start against an NFC opponent. New York’s defense has been playing well of late, but none of that matters if they cannot move the football. Daniel Jones’ status is still in doubt, and Colt McCoy has led the offense to just 23 total points in his two starts. New York was once rolling after four straight wins, but have come crashing down to earth with two losses by a combined 33 points in the last two weeks.
It would have been easy for the Kansas City Chiefs’ upcoming game against the Falcons to be considered a letdown spot after their big win at New Orleans. However, Pittsburgh’s surprising loss to Cincinnati on Monday night means that the Chiefs can clinch a first round bye and homefield advantage throughout the playoffs with a win this week. Kansas City controlled their own destiny for the No. 1 seed entering Week 15, but now they are in a position to rest key starters in Week 17 if they take care of business this week. Atlanta is in somewhat of a trap spot, as this game is sandwiched in between two meetings with the Buccaneers. The Falcons defense allowed Tampa Bay to score 31 second-half points en route to blowing a 17-point third quarter lead. If the Buccaneers offense can score that many points that quickly against Atlanta, imagine what Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs can do.
The Cleveland Browns will play their second-straight road game in the same stadium as they face the Jets one week after playing the Giants. Some may pause when thinking about whether targeting the Jets is the smartest thing to do one week after their stunning upset. However, the argument can be made that this is the best time to pick against New York, as they will likely just be relieved to have gotten the 0-16 monkey off their backs. The Jets are still alive for the No. 1 overall draft pick if the Jaguars win one more game, while Cleveland’s chances for a division title increased dramatically after Pittsburgh’s loss. The Browns play Pittsburgh next week, but they will be focused on the task at hand as their hopes for an AFC North title may evaporate if they look past the Jets.
The Houston Texans are another team that lands in the “safest picks” category despite facing an opponent coming off a big upset. While the Bengals had their way with a struggling Steelers offense on Monday night, Deshaun Watson is a considerably more dangerous quarterback at this stage of his career than Ben Roethlisberger. The Bengals’ defense will not be able to sit on short passing routes all game long, as Watson has can throw the ball downfield. Cincinnati treated their Monday night matchup with Pittsburgh as their Super Bowl, and a Week 16 hangover on a short week isn’t out of the question.
The Chicago Bears are admittedly the least safe of our “safest picks,” but if you have them available, circumstances dictate that they should help you survive. After Chicago’s huge win over Minnesota, they sit one game back of Arizona for the NFC’s final playoff spot. As a result, two wins in their final two games are imperative if they have any hopes of playing in the postseason. The Jaguars had a stretch where they played competitive football, but they have now lost back-to-back games by at least 21 points. Their star running back, James Robinson, may miss this game with an ankle injury he suffered last week. Most importantly, the Jaguars would own the rights to the No. 1 draft pick if they lose their next two games, so the idea that they would tank this game is definitely in play.
Riskier Plays That Will Be Popular
Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-430), Buffalo Bills (-310), New Orleans Saints (-300)
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers were getting shut out at halftime of last week’s game against the Falcons. This offense hasn’t looked right for quite some time, as they seem to lack an identity of any kind. The Detroit Lions have lost nine-straight games as home underdogs, but they have an ability to score points in bunches as long as Matthew Stafford is healthy. That isn’t something one can say confidently about the Buccaneers.
The newly crowned AFC East champion Buffalo Bills will be proud to bring that honor to Foxborough when facing the team that dominated their division for the last two decades. While the divisional torch may have officially been passed, the fact remains that the Bills still struggle to dominate the Patriots even when they aren’t at their best. New England was on their way to upsetting Buffalo on the road in early November, but Cam Newton fumbled deep in Bills territory and Buffalo escaped with a 24-21 win. Josh Allen is 1-3 SU in his career against the Patriots, and Bill Belichick should have his men up to playing the role of spoiler even though they have been eliminated from playoff contention.
The New Orleans Saints should be able to take care of a Vikings team that just saw their playoff hopes evaporate after a loss to the Bears. However, this game will be played on Christmas Day, which is a scary proposition, as one never knows if the players’ attention may be somewhat diverted while away from their families. Also, Drew Brees did not look crisp in his first game back from injury. He was just 15-for-34 for 234 yards passing, and the Saints offense held the ball for just 19 minutes compared to Kansas City’s 41. Minnesota can take a similar ball-control approach with Dalvin Cook, so there are much better options than the Saints this week.
Contrarian Play To Beat a Large Pool
Arizona Cardinals (-210)
The Arizona Cardinals control their own destiny for a postseason berth, as they enter this week with sole possession of the seventh seed in the NFC. They took Philadelphia’s best punch last week behind a rejuvenated offense and walked out with an impressive 33-26 victory. They now face a 49ers team that just committed four turnovers and allowed 41 points in a loss to the Cowboys. Arizona beat a completely healthy and intact 49ers team on the road in Week 1, so there should be no doubt of their ability to beat Nick Mullens-led offense and a decimated defense at home this week.
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