NFL Survivor Pool Advice: Week 16

Favorites went 10-6 SU and 9-6-1 ATS in Week 15. Of the six SU losses, two of them were from favorites whose money lines were -200 or higher. If you followed last week's column, you knew the 49ers were considered a risky play given the tough two-game stretch they were coming off of. Survivor pool contestants that are still alive entering Week 16 are likely struggling to find teams to use. The good news is that this week has teams that are "safe picks" that one likely has not used yet this year.

With just two weeks remaining, kudos to all contestants who have lasted this far. Even if your survivor pool days did not last long this year, hopefully our readers are gaining an edge betting-wise, with money to be had on the money lines of each game. 

This week's column will outline the following categories: Safest Picks, Riskier Plays That Will Be Popular, and the Picks to Stay Far Away From. Even though survivor pool rules say you cannot pick the same team twice, I will outline multiple scenarios in case bettors wish to navigate their own path or have already used the teams I will suggest.

Here is a list of odds for all the favorites to win their matchups in Week 16 (odds courtesy of FanDuel).

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Safest Picks

Baltimore Ravens (-450), Seattle Seahawks (-390), Atlanta Falcons (-310), Denver Broncos (-290), Indianapolis Colts (-260)
For the second week in a row, we provide a five-pack of the safest picks. This is because it is likely survivor pool contestants have used many of these teams, but from a betting standpoint, all of these five teams have favorable matchups.

Baltimore Ravens
The Ravens are on a 10-game winning streak and come into this game on longer rest. They will look to exact revenge on the Browns, who handed them their last loss back in Week 4. Divisional games on the road are always a risky proposition, but the Ravens are playing too well right now. Lamar Jackson's quad appeared to be just fine last week, as he threw for five touchdowns and ran for 86 yards. The Ravens would like nothing better than to officially eliminate the Browns from playoff contention with a win, while locking down homefield advantage throughout the playoffs in the process.

Seattle Seahawks
The Seahawks are in somewhat of a "trap game" spot. Their Week 17 showdown against the 49ers will likely decide the NFC West and maybe even the No. 1 seed in the playoffs. The Cardinals are just 2-4 on the road this year with their lone wins coming against the Bengals and Giants. Arizona is 25th in the league in rush defense, allowing 122.7 YPG. This game may be tighter than expected, but look for a heavy dose of Chris Carson to wear down the Cardinals in the fourth quarter and for the Seahawks to pull away late.

Atlanta Falcons
The Falcons have quietly been playing better football of late, having won four of their last six games. They must avoid a letdown off a big win over the 49ers. The Jaguars ruined the Raiders’ home finale last week, but prior to that had lost five games in a row by 17 or more points. One road win over Oakland is just a mirage for what are clearly deep-rooted problems. The Falcons will keep their momentum going against an unmotivated Jaguars team.

Denver Broncos
Denver's loss in Arrowhead to the Chiefs was expected and is excusable. Before that, Drew Lock led the Broncos to wins over the Chargers and Texans, averaging 30.5 PPG in the process. The Lions look completely lost right now and just got torched by the Buccaneers. Denver's defense should wreak havoc on David Blough en route to a big win at Mile High. 

Indianapolis Colts
The Colts should beat the Carolina Panthers this week, even considering their poor performance on Monday Night Football. Will Grier makes his first NFL start this week for Carolina, making this a safe pick. The Colts allow less than 100 yards rushing per game and rank in the top 10 in the league in rush defense. They should be able to limit Christian McCaffrey's big play ability, while Jacoby Brissett should carve up a leaky Carolina defense that has allowed 32.4 PPG over their last five games.

Riskier Plays That Will Be Popular

San Francisco 49ers (-300), Los Angeles Chargers (-260), Kansas City Chiefs (-220), Pittsburgh Steelers (-142)

San Francisco 49ers
The 49ers will look to get the bad taste out of their mouth against the Rams this week after a disappointing loss to the Falcons. The Rams are fresh off a beatdown at the hands of the Cowboys and are barely hanging onto their playoff hopes. The 49ers still have the top seed in the NFC within their reach and will play like the more motivated team this week.

Los Angeles Chargers
Their opponent, the Raiders, are on a four-game losing streak and are just 1-5 on the road this year. Survivor pool contestants that pick the Chargers would be doing so based on the trends of their opponent and not because Philip Rivers inspires any confidence at the moment.

Kansas City Chiefs
The Chiefs’ defense has quietly played excellent football of late. They have allowed 17 points or less in each of their last four games. Heading to Soldier Field is always a risky proposition given how well the Bears’ defense can play. However, now that the Bears have officially been eliminated from playoff contention, there will likely be less motivation from their sidelines.

Pittsburgh Steelers
The Steelers have a solid defense, allowing 307.4 YPG (fourth best in the league). However, as long as Devlin Hodges is under center, the Steelers are capable of being beaten by anyone. Pittsburgh has topped 20 points just once in their last six games. The Jets are off more rest, having played last Thursday. They also have the second-best run defense in the league. If they can force Hodges to beat them through the air, Pittsburgh is not a slam dunk to win this game on the road.

Picks to Stay Far Away From

New England Patriots (-245), Minnesota Vikings (-200), Washington Redskins (-138), Dallas Cowboys (-136), New Orleans Saints (-130), Houston Texans (-122), Miami Dolphins (-108)

New England Patriots
The Buffalo Bills went toe-to-toe with the Patriots in Week 4. If Josh Allen did not leave the game early that day, things could've been vastly different. With as poorly as New England's offense has played lately, the Bills are more than capable of shutting them down and winning a defensive battle.

Minnesota Vikings
The Vikings are 6-0 at home, but welcome the division-leading Packers to town. If neither Dalvin Cook or Alexander Mattison are healthy enough to play, it will be tough for the Vikings’ offense to move the ball consistently.

Washington Redskins
The Redskins have played much more competitive football of late. All things considered, it is not the wisest move to risk a season's worth of survival pool winnings on the Redskins against anyone.

Dallas Cowboys
Who are the real Dallas Cowboys? Are they the team that has endured two separate three-game losing streaks this year? Or are they the team that just throttled the defending NFC champs in their most complete game of the season? Until we get clarity on those questions, I would not touch them at Philadelphia with the NFC East on the line.

New Orleans Saints
The Saints travel to Tennessee to take on a desperate Titans team that is clinging to playoff hopes. I would feel much better if the Saints were playing a team with much less to play for.

Houston Texans
The Texans head to Tampa Bay on a short week to face the red-hot Jameis Winston. The Buccaneers are more than capable of winning this game in a shootout. Houston better not be complacent after their big win against Tennessee last week.

Miami Dolphins
The Dolphins are one of four teams with three wins on the season. It is anyone's guess who is more concerned with winning games or jockeying for draft positioning. I want no part of figuring that out.

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Mike Spector is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Mike, check out his archive and follow him @MikeSpector01.