NFL Survivor Pool Advice: Week 6 (2020)

For a while, it looked like Week 5 of the NFL season was looking like a "massacre week" for survivor pool purposes. However, several big favorites like the Cowboys, Saints, and Seahawks narrowly avoided big upsets and kept many people who got creative with their survivor pool picks alive. 

Favorites went 8-6 SU overall in Week 5, including two losses among the top four moneyline favorites of the week. The five favorites who lost were the Kansas City Chiefs (-671), San Francisco 49ers (-402), Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-236), Atlanta Falcons (-193), Buffalo Bills (-177), and Indianapolis Colts (-142).

Week 5 was also our first week that was impacted by positive COVID-19 tests. As a result, many survivor pool contestants who did not follow the news were eliminated if they picked the Patriots over the Broncos, as the league moved that game to this weekend. In addition, survivor pool contestants will want to pay attention to the number of changes the league made for Week 6 and beyond. One change for example is the Jets will play the Dolphins on Sunday instead of their originally planned game against the Chargers. Those that take survivor pools week-to-week are not as affected as those that attempted to lay out a plan for an entire season.

Like always, my selections for this week will be broken down by the following categories: safest picks, riskier plays that will be popular, and contrarian plays to beat a large pool. Even though survivor pool rules say you cannot pick the same team twice, I will outline multiple scenarios in case bettors wish to navigate their own path. Here is a list of odds for all the favorites to win their matchups in Week 6 (odds courtesy of FanDuel).

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Safest Picks

Miami Dolphins (-375), Minnesota Vikings (-194)

As mentioned in the opening, the Miami Dolphins have suddenly become a great survivor pool option for this week now that they are hosting the New York Jets. The Dolphins shocked many people in not only beating the San Francisco 49ers outright but that the game was not even close. The Dolphins relentlessly pressured 49ers quarterback Jimmy Garoppolo, eventually causing him to be benched for the second half. Now Ryan Fitzpatrick and company aim for their third win in four games against a winless Jets team who has lost all but one game by double digits this year. There are not many other spots to use the Dolphins, so this is a great opportunity to advance with a team you are likely to not use again.

The Minnesota Vikings will be a trendy pick this week because of how well they played against an undefeated Seattle team. It is still amazing how much had to go wrong for the Vikings to lose last week. They were stopped on a fourth-and-one that would have ended the game. Then, Russell Wilson had to drive the length of the field and convert two fourth downs of his own in the process. While some people will shy away from picking the Vikings if running back Dalvin Cook is held out with a groin injury, Alexander Mattison is a viable backup who is explosive and physical in his own right. If Minnesota can mentally rebound from last week's agonizing loss, they should not have too much problem beating a winless Atlanta team at home that just fired their head coach.

Riskier Plays That Will Be Popular

New England Patriots (-400), Indianapolis Colts (-375), Baltimore Ravens (-370)

The reason the biggest favorite onboard finds themselves in the "riskier play" category is because of the unknown surrounding their quarterback situation. If Cam Newton were to be cleared to play for the New England Patriots, then they would certainly be a solid play that would belong in the "safest picks" section. With their game getting pushed back a week, Newton has more time for re-testing and to get cleared to play through the league's protocols. The fact that they are -400 moneyline favorites suggests that he should be cleared in time, but I would monitor the situation as I would not want my survivor pool chances riding on Brian Hoyer or Jarrett Stidham.

Spread-wise, the Indianapolis Colts are one of the biggest favorites on the Week 6 slate. However, they are not to be completely trusted as they have proven that they can turn in a clunker on any given week. The Colts still remain Jacksonville's lone win on the season, which is a loss that looks even worse now that we have seen how the Jaguars have played over the last four weeks. In addition, the only real bad loss on the Bengals record right now is last week's 27-3 loss at Baltimore. However, this is still a team capable of an upset, as many who picked the Eagles to beat them in Week 3 can testify to. Hopefully, you have already used the Colts in one of the three weeks they won so that you do not have to make the tough call of using them this week.

The Baltimore Ravens find themselves in our column once again as there are still a large percentage of teams that likely have not used them in survivor pools yet. There will be many that will bite the bullet and use them this week as there are not too many other solid options. While the Ravens should be able to go to Philadelphia and earn a win, there are still much better spots to use the Ravens later in the season as opposed to using them against an Eagles team desperate for a win. In addition, Philadelphia may play with more confidence this week now that their chances to win the division increased as a result of Dak Prescott's injury. This is a complete stay-away spot for me.

Contrarian Play To Beat a Large Pool

Detroit Lions (-190)

I know that you are reading this and thinking we are crazy for ever advising to use the Detroit Lions in a survivor pool. However, in a week where the options are more limited than usual, using Detroit off a bye week against a struggling Jaguars team might not seem that risky. The Lions are the healthiest they have been all year, and perhaps we would not have such a negative outlook on them if players like Kenny Golladay, Desmond Trufant, and Jeff Okudah did not miss a combined five games. Meanwhile, the Jaguars have allowed at least 30 points in each of their last four games so Matthew Stafford and the Lions offense should be able to score enough points to make up for any defensive deficiencies of their own.

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Mike Spector is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Mike, check out his archive and follow him @MikeSpector01.