Sunday marks the first full slate of NFL games for the 2023 season. Make sure to check in with BettingPros throughout the year for top picks and predictions for each and every NFL game. Our writers dive into their favorite picks and predictions for every remaining game on this weekend’s NFL slate.
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NFL Week 1 Odds, Picks & Predictions
Panthers vs. Falcons
This NFC South contest will be the first NFL regular season action for #1 overall pick QB Bryce Young. But let’s pump the brakes, the last 14 QBs drafted first overall are 1-13 ATS in their first NFL start. Throw on top of that DL Brian Burns is likely to continue his holdout leaving a massive hole on the Panthers’ defense. The same defense that ranked in the bottom half of run defense DVOA in 2022. Even with a huge question mark at quarterback, the Falcons’ three-headed monster at RB, led by rookie Bijan Robinson, should have a field day. Even over a field goal, I’m not afraid to lay the points with Atlanta.
Pick: Falcons -3.5 (-110)
Bengals vs. Browns
Over the last two years the Bengals have worked hard to improve the offensive line unit blocking for QB Joe Burrow. They’ve made strides but many prognostications rank them around league average. This is fine against most defensive lines, but the Browns are elite. Anchored by DE Myles Garrett, this Browns’ line could be in Joe Burrow’s face all day. This spells trouble considering Burrow is presumed to still be banged up from the leg injury he suffered in summer practices. Cleveland has been a thorn in Burrow’s side since he joined the league, compiling a 5-1 record since 2020. I expect the Browns to have similar success on Sunday.
Pick: Browns +2 (-110)
Jaguars vs. Colts
Big expectations for the Jaguars coming into this season as they won their first AFC South title since 2017. Quarterback Trevor Lawrence saw significant improvements in his sophomore season, especially with his passing efficiency and minimizing interceptions. His receiving core got a massive upgrade, with the addition of former Falcon Calvin Ridley returning after being suspended last year for sports betting. The Colts are starting fresh with their fourth different opening week quarterback in four years, along with a rookie head coach. Anthony Richardson was a highly touted prospect coming out of Florida and is equipped with a strong arm and ability to move outside of the pocket. He'll try to do it without the anchor of a strong running back, as Jonathan Taylor will not be suiting for the team anytime soon. Jacksonville has the complete package with running back depth, excellent receivers, and a defense that was sixth in turnovers last year and will come out with a defiant win against a rebuilding team.
Pick: Jaguars -4.5 (-110)
Buccaneers vs. Vikings
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers have so many undrafted free agents on the roster. Either they're insane at finding gems, or the team is less skilled than all other teams in the NFL. Baker Mayfield has Mike Evans and Chris Godwin. But after that, his receiver core drops off. Trey Palmer has potential as the No. 3 receiver, but with Russell Gage injured, the offense already looks depleted. Meanwhile, the Tampa Bay defense was just average last season. The secondary should be good. But other than that, the Buccaneers will struggle. On the other hand, the Vikings were probably lucky to win many games last year. However, analytically, the team was still above-average. On defense, the Vikings were dominant against the run. On offense, the Vikings showed off a lot of playmaking. The Vikings no longer have Dalvin Cook, but they do have Alexander Mattison, who is poised for a breakout season. The Vikings still don't get enough respect. Take Minnesota -5.5.
Pick: Vikings -5.5 (-110)
Titans vs. Saints
The Saints won't have Alvin Kamara available to begin the season. Keandre Miller is also questionable for this game. Therefore, Jamaal Williams will be the bell cow for the Saints, just like he was for the Lions. It worked out for the Lions and should be OK against the Titans. However, the Titans played solid defense against the run last year. That's something to consider in this game. The Saints weren't great at run-blocking, either. Conversely, the Titans were without Ryan Tannehill for much of last season. He's back in action and likely has a chip on his shoulder, knowing two quarterbacks were drafted in the last two seasons to take his spot potentially. The Titans will hand the ball off to Derrick Henry and have some success. But Tannehill's receivers are still a significant question mark, even with DeAndre Hopkins signed. I'll take the Saints at -3.
Pick: Saints -2.5 (-110)
49ers vs. Steelers
Brock Purdy did some big things for the 49ers last year. But can he sustain that success into this year? We'll find out quickly. However, the 49ers still have so many weapons on offense to help whoever is at quarterback. Christian McCaffrey is the best running back in the league, and the receiver core still has Deebo Samuel and Brandon Aiyuk, with George Kittle at tight end. Meanwhile, the defense no longer has DeMeco Ryans running the show. He's with Houston now. I don't think that will hurt the San Francisco defense, but it's something to consider. On the other hand, the Steelers were an above-average group last year. Kenny Pickett should improve in his second season under center with Pittsburgh. The run game was better than most projected, and the defense was solid enough everywhere. Therefore, I'll back the Under 41 in this game. Both defenses are excellent, and both offenses will run a lot.
Pick: Under 41.5 (-110)
Cardinals vs. Commanders
Joshua Dobbs will start for the Cardinals in Week 1. We might never see Kyler Murray start for the Cardinals again, even when he returns to the field after recovering from an ACL tear. Arizona looks like one of the worst teams in the NFL this year. They even lost J.J. Watt to retirement. The defense was terrible against the run last season and average in the passing game. However, I think Washington's offense will surprise some folks this year. The Commanders are riding out this season with Sam Howell, and he's got a lot of great playmakers around him. It's unclear if Terry McLaurin will play in Week 1. But even if he doesn't, Jahan Dotson will step up. Plus. Washington's secondary was outstanding last season. Dobbs won't have much success throwing the football when Arizona finds itself down. Take the Commanders at -7.
Pick: Commanders -7 (-110)
Texans vs. Ravens
The new-look Texans will be led by rookie quarterback CJ Stroud and rookie head coach DeMarco Ryans. This team also bring in some complimentary pieces, including former Dallas Cowboys tight end Dalton Schultz, former Buffalo Bills running back Devin Singletary, and drafted Nathan "Tank" Dell in the third round. Lamar Jackson is healthy and paid as he tries to make the Ravens into a contender. A lack of wide receiver depth has plagued this team for a while, but they are trying to mend that by drafting Zay Flowers in the first round and signing Odell Beckham. Fans are also excited about new offensive coordinator Todd Monken, who promises to open up the passing game. There's a lot of potential talent for the Texans, but some questions remain, including on the offensive line. The Ravens and Texans were among the more profitable teams last year when betting on the under. The Ravens still have one of the better defenses in the league, which will help keep this score low.
Pick: Under 43.5 (-110)
Packers vs. Bears
The NFL’s most storied rivalry opens a new chapter as Green Bay begins the Jordan Love era. They currently sit as underdogs at Chicago because there is an expected drop off from Rodgers to Love, but 2022 Rodgers did not really impress with a career low 41.3 QBR. Love is more than capable of replicating that production and that should be enough against this Chicago defense. Green Bay won both 2022 matchups by two or more scores and running for 5.4 yards per carry was a huge reason why. The Packers should continue to be able to control the game on the ground and if Chicago can’t stop them they’ll need Justin Fields to use his arm to win. Fields should be an improved passer with new target WR DJ Moore, but I don’t trust him to win a game in the air yet. I like to Packers to continue to haunt the Bears even after handing the keys to Jordan Love.
Pick: Packers +1.5 (-110)
Raiders vs. Broncos
This is a really tricky game to gauge between two division rivals. Can Sean Payton get Russell Wilson cooking again, or is Russ actually COOKED? And will we see a dropoff between Jimmy Garoppolo and Derek Carr in Vegas? While both offenses will be trickier to project, Denver has a clear advantage on the defensive side of the ball. Denver ranked 13th in defensive DVOA while Las Vegas ranked 29th. The Raiders spent two of their top three draft picks on the defense, but it's hard to expect those investments to make an immediate impact in Week 1. To make matters worse, Maxx Crosby's running mate, Chandler Jones, says he doesn't want to play for the team anymore. That makes a weak unit even more toothless enough for a new-look Broncos offense to capitalize. I'd much prefer this below a field goal, and this isn't a game I love by any means. But I'll lay it with the short home favorite.
Pick: Broncos -3 (-110)
Eagles vs. Patriots
The Eagles are coming off of a crushing Super Bowl loss to the Chiefs. The Eagles look to be contenders yet again by running back most key players from last year’s run while adding some key young pieces, especially on defense. A -4.5 spread against a Patriot team that missed the playoffs seems like an easy play, but not so fast! First off, trends are certainly not in their favor. In the past 23 seasons, the Super Bowl runner-up has gone an eye-popping 4-19 ATS in Week 1 the following season. Throw on top of that you’re on the road against a Bill Belichick coached team and the Patriots start to look more intriguing. The Pats will do what they do best and try to shut down the run, forcing Jalen Hurts to beat them in the air. He’s capable, but New England won’t make it easy. This game is going to low scoring and close. I’m going to back Belichick and the trend and back the home dogs.
Pick: Patriots +4 (-109)
Dolphins vs. Chargers
Yes, it's Week 1. But this game has massive playoff ramifications and could ultimately earn or cost one of these teams a playoff berth. And it should be an awesome game to watch between two awesome offenses. Justin Herbert could be an MVP candidate now that Kellen Moore has replaced the incompetent Joe Lombardi at OC. Tua Tagovailoa could also be an under-the-radar MVP candidate if he can stay healthy. Neither defense is overly inspiring, especially Miami's without star cornerback Jalen Ramsey. But I'm going to go a bit contrarian here. Newly-hired defensive coordinator Vic Fangio is one of the best defensive minds in the sport, and Brandon Staley's defense is predicated on limiting the big plays Miami's offense thrives upon. Both teams will challenge their opposing offenses to sustain drives, something I'm not sure is conducive to an over.
Pick: Under 51 (-110)
Rams vs. Seahawks
The Los Angeles Rams can’t afford to lose any of their stars. But on Sunday, they’ll be without arguably their most important player in Cooper Kupp due to a nagging hamstring injury. This leaves an already short-handed Rams offense even more short-handed against a Seattle secondary that could have one of the league’s best cornerback duos for years to come in Tariq Woolen and Devon Witherspoon. The Seahawks have also made solid investments to bolster the offensive line and should be full speed ahead with Jaxon Smith-Njigba officially announced in. I don’t love laying points with divisional favorites in Week 1, but Seattle should be able to take down a Kupp-less Rams team that could have one of the league’s worst defenses as well.
Pick: Seahawks -3.5 (-110)
Cowboys vs. Giants
There is a lot of excitement for the Giants going into Year 2 of the Brian Daboll era. They were able to sign Daniel Jones long-term, keep Saquon Barkley for at least another season, and they upgraded the passing game by trading for former Raiders tight end Darren Waller. While Waller has missed time the last couple of years due to injury, he's been one of the premier players at his position and could be one of their leading receivers. The Cowboys made some changes to their lineup, including the addition of wide receiver Brandin Cooks, but more importantly, the subtraction of longtime running back Ezekiel Elliott. While we’re not sure how this new look to the Dallas offense will go, they will still be supported by one of the best defenses from last year, as they lead the league in turnovers forced and allowed the fifth-fewest points. This game cis always heated and could be a potential defensive and low-scoring matchup.
Pick: Under 45.5 (-110)
Bills vs. Jets
The Jets didn't need a feature on Hard Knocks to be one of the more talked about teams. Aaron Rodgers immediately upgrades this offense and he gets to throw to the reigning Offensive Rookie of the Year Garrett Wilson. What makes them a legitimate threat is having one of the best defenses that allowed the third-fewest points in the league. They will have to go through the reigning three-time AFC East champs and the Bills also come with talent on both sides of the ball. Josh Allen has continually proved he's one of the top quarterbacks in the league, but the defense was sixth in points allowed last year. We have a meaningful divisional matchup out of the gate between two potential playoff contenders. Both have great defenses, but I'm trusting these offensive units and we'll see some scoring in the first Monday game of the year.
Pick: Over 45.5 (-110)
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