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NFL Odds, Picks & Predictions
Colts vs. Patriots
The NFL heads to Frankfurt again on Sunday for another early kickoff. The Patriots take on the Colts in a matchup that would have been must-see viewing 15 years ago. The Patriots have had some rough games lately but they aren’t nearly as bad as the public perception. In fact, their defense ranks 14th in DVOA, and 5th in run DVOA. That’s important about a Colt team that is 6th in run offense DVOA. The Patriots should be able to neutralize the Indianapolis run game, meaning QB Gardner Minshew will have to beat the Patriots with his arm. When it comes to completion percentage, yards per attempt or even interceptions, Minshew has only been marginally better than Mac Jones. Speaking of Jones, he likely won’t be asked to do too much in this game. The Indianapolis run defense ranks in the bottom third of the league in most metrics which the Patriots can exploit with their running game. I think we’ve probably hit the bottom of the market for this Patriot team. I trust Bill Belichick in this spot and I’m backing New England.
Pick: Patriots +1.5
-Ryan Rodeman
Texans vs. Bengals
CJ Stroud may have locked up OROY with his record-breaking performance last week. He lit up the Tampa defense en route to 470 yards and 5 touchdowns. His 14 to 1 TD to INT ratio is unheard of for a rookie. Against a somewhat average Bengal defense, he could have another big game. But no so fast. If you look at CJ’s home and road splits, there’s a big difference. At home CJ is averaging 9.3 yards per attempt. That number falls to 6.8 on the road. Additionally, he’s managed only three passing touchdowns on the road all season. On the other side, Joe Burrow and the Bengals are just now heating up. They’ve looked unstoppable since the Arizona game a few weeks back. Burrow has since been able to carve up the 49ers and Bills to the tune of 631 yards and five touchdowns. The difficulties that the Bengals’ offense faced early in the season as a result of Joe Burrow’s injury seem to be past them. They’re starting to look like the Super Bowl contender most expected. I’m typically not one to take a favorite of a touchdown or greater, but this is a situation where we’re fading a team coming off of a historic performance and backing a team that the sportsbook lines don’t seem to have caught up to yet. I love the Bengals here.
Pick: Bengals -7
-Ryan Rodeman
Saints vs. Vikings
The Saints are in first, but barely, so for them, every game is important. The offense might have taken a hit as Michael Thomas ran into some legal trouble on Friday, so his status is up in the air. New Orleans' offense under Derek Carr hasn't been as good as some thought it would be as they sit near the average in points scored, but he's also continuing to deal with a shoulder injury. The Vikings could have been done after the Kirk Cousins injury, but newly acquired quarterback Joshua Dobbs came in and saved the day, and with this team winning four straight, they are back in the playoff hunt. They have even better news, as Justin Jefferson could possibly make his return. Minnesota is an underdog, and understandably with their situation. Still, you can't ignore how well they're playing and how Dobbs was able to adjust to an offense he knew nothing about. The Saints have also played close games against some bad teams, so expect the Vikings to remain competitive
Pick: Vikings +3
-John Supowitz
Packers vs. Steelers
There was a lot of hope this year that both of these quarterbacks could take the next step in their careers. Unfortunately for both of them, this hasn’t been the case. Offensive line injuries haven’t helped Jordan Love’s case, but his eight interceptions are currently one behind the league leader and his yards per attempt rank him 24th in the league. This is especially concerning this week against an elite Pittsburgh defensive line. The Steelers rank sixth in adjusted sack rate with 26 sacks on the season. The Steeler defense has been a bit susceptible to the run, but Green Bay has been awful running the ball, with AJ Dillon leading the team with only 306 yards. However, it’s not like the Steelers have been an offensive juggernaut. Both the pass and run offenses rank outside the top 20 in DVOA. With these two poor offenses outdoors in mid-November you can expect a low-scoring affair. This game reads like one where the winner may end up scoring in the teens. I like the under here.
Pick: Under 39
-Ryan Rodeman
Titans vs. Buccaneers
This game has sneaky potential to be a high-scoring affair like we saw last week when the Buccaneers lost 39-37 to the Houston Texans. While Tennessee's offense doesn't have quite as much explosive upside as Houston's, I've liked what I've seen from Will Levis in his first two starts. And he'll face a Buccaneers defense that might still be overvalued in the market. Tampa Bay stuffs the run well, but they actually rank 28th in EPA pass defense. This unit is also below-average in pressure rate despite ranking fifth in blitz rate. Tennessee's defense is almost a carbon copy of Tampa's. The Titans defend the run well but are even worse at generating pressure and rank 26th in EPA pass defense. And while Baker Mayfield isn't a quarterback I'm pounding the table for, it's worth noting that Tampa is averaging 0.1 fewer adjusted net yards per pass attempt than Kansas City and Dallas. This total just feels a tad too low, as both defenses are also allowing just shy of two points per drive. I also don't mind taking the over on DeAndre Hopkins and Mike Evans yardage props, as both teams have been generous to opposing wideouts.
Pick: Over 38.5
-Matt Barbato
49ers vs. Jaguars
The 49ers desperately needed a bye week last weekend. San Francisco began the season with six straight wins, and it seemed like the team would never lose. However, the Niners dealt with some injuries and lost three straight games while scoring only 17 points in all those matchups. The defense is still electric. The secondary and pass rush will always be hard to beat for offenses. But Brock Purdy and the offense need to figure out how to score more points. With the Jaguars allowing 263.5 yards per game in the air, Purdy should be able to find receivers open. He just needs to be more accurate, like he was throughout the entire start of his career. After all, Jacksonville still has a very reliable secondary that can make plays. On the other hand, Trevor Lawrence only has nine touchdown passes this season. That's not entirely impressive. The defense of the Jaguars has been one of the main reasons for Jacksonville's five-game winning streak.
Pick: Under 45.5
-Jason Radowitz
Browns vs. Ravens
We've got a fun AFC battle between two of the best defensive teams in the NFL. The Browns have allowed just 145 yards in the air, while the Ravens have given up only 170.67 yards passing per game this season. We can't expect a lot of completions down the field for either team. But we can expect some awesome pass rushes and hurries by each offensive line. The Browns arguably have the best pass rush in the NFL, with Myles Garrett leading the way. On the other hand, the Ravens have been tremendous in coverage and have one of the best secondaries in the NFL. This game will likely come down to rushing the football. The Browns have Jerome Ford, while the Ravens have Lamar Jackson and Gus Edwards leading the way. With Baltimore earning over 160 yards on the ground per game, I like the Ravens to edge out the Browns in this one.
Pick: Ravens -6.5
-Jason Radowitz
Falcons vs. Cardinals
Kyler Murray will return to the starting lineup for the Arizona Cardinals this weekend. Murray battled back from a torn ACL but is fully healed and ready to return to the field. If we're being honest, Murray is competing for a starting position for next season. The Cardinals have just one win, and if Murray doesn't prove anything, Arizona will more than likely draft a quarterback in the next NFL Draft. Murray wasn't playing at a high level when he got injured. So I don't understand the hype knowing that he's back. The Cardinals still have a terrible team overall. Murray won't fix that. On the other hand, the Falcons can get back to .500 with a win against Arizona. With Taylor Heinicke under center, the offense can be more consistent, especially if Drake London's healthy. Arizona does nothing good on the defensive end. But at least the Falcons can defend against the run at a high level.
Pick: Falcons -2
-Jason Radowitz
Lions vs. Chargers
The Lions were on a bye week last weekend, while the Chargers had to play on Monday night. The Lions will obviously be more rested and likely more prepared for this game. The Lions will have Frank Ragnow and Jonah Jackson back on the offensive line. They'll also have David Montgomery back at running back. If Detroit still plays Jahmyr Gibbs, the Lions' offense should succeed against the Chargers in the run game. Los Angeles has allowed only about 90 yards per game on the ground. But they've been beaten for big gains in the run game throughout the season. Meanwhile, the offense couldn't even earn 200 yards against the Jets in their last game. The offense is still struggling to find consistency. Jared Goff has outplayed Justin Herbert, and the Lions' defense has allowed fewer points than the Chargers this year.
Pick: Lions -3
-Jason Radowitz
Giants vs. Cowboys
Things are not going so well for the G-Men as they deal with injuries. Daniel Jones is done for the year, and Tyrod Taylor is sidelined, so it will be rookie Tommy DeVito who will command the lowest-scoring offense in the league. The Cowboys don't have that problem, as they're third in scoring. The defense is also playing well, as they're fourth in points allowed. We remember this last matchup where the Cowboys came into MetLife and put a 40-0 beat down on the Giants, and now this New York team is in even worse shape. Dallas should cruise to a victory.
Pick: Cowboys -16
-John Supowitz
Commanders vs. Seahawks
The Commanders have not found consistency all season, but they're hanging on as they sit just outside of the final playoff spot. Sam Howell has done well, especially given his situation. He's thrown for 300 yards in back-to-back games, but he also has a pick in three straight. It's been hard at times to deal with an offensive line that's allowed the most sacks this year. The Seahawks are tied for first in the NFC East, as the 49ers are in a bit of a rut. Last week, they played their worst game of the year, as they couldn't get a touchdown against the Ravens. They shouldn't have that problem against the Commanders, who are 31st in points allowed and 28th in total yards allowed. Seattle hasn't been much better on defense either, especially against the pass, and with how pass-heavy Washington has been, they could make this into a shootout.
Pick: Over 44.5
-John Supowitz
Jets vs. Raiders
Zach Wilson or Aidan O'Connell, who you got? If you're asking me who has the better matchup, it's Wilson. New York's defense leads the league in pressure rate, and they have two corners who can limit Davante Adams and Jakobi Meyers in coverage. I suspect New York's plan will be to force O'Connell to quickly work through his progressions, which could lead to a ton of checkdowns and sacks. But what's disgusting is I might actually trust O'Connell more to not screw up, even in the tougher matchup. It's worth mentioning that the Raiders scored 30 points against a Giants defense that held the Jets to 13 the week prior. The game will likely come down to whether Wilson can take advantage of a Raiders defense that doesn't generate a ton of pressure and invites teams to efficiently march the ball down the field against them. If I had to bet this, I'm taking the Jets, as the matchup favors them. But I have no faith in Wilson at all, which leads me to the under.
Pick: Under 36.5
-Matt Barbato
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