NFL Week 13 Odds, Picks & Predictions (Sunday)

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NFL Odds, Picks & Predictions

Colts vs. Titans

The Tennessee Titans are playing their second consecutive game at home for the first time this season. That should keep them loose for their next matchup against the Indianapolis Colts. However, the Colts are red-hot, earning wins in their last three games. The Indianapolis defense hasn't allowed more than 20 points in any of their three wins. Meanwhile, the Titans haven't scored more than 17 points in any of their last four games. While neither defense has been electric, the Colts have a reliable pass defense with some really good performers on the pass rush and in the secondary. Meanwhile, the Titans can also create havoc with their pass rush. The secondary hasn't played all that well, but the run defense for the Titans is better than the Colts'. I'll back the Under 42.5 in this matchup between Gardner Minshew and Will Levis. The Colts don't even have Jonathan Taylor anymore!

Pick: Under 42.5

-Jason Radowitz

Chargers vs. Patriots

The New England Patriots have averaged 13.45 points per game. That's not even two touchdowns per game. Heading into this week, it sounds like Mac Jones will be benched for Bailey Zappe. However, neither of those quarterbacks is a good option. While the Chargers have struggled defensively, they've still got a pass rush that is respectable. That pass rush should force errors out of Zappe or Jones in this game. Combined, those two have 14 interceptions and 10 touchdowns this season. They've also been sacked 24 times. On the other hand, the Chargers have enough talent offensively to get by the two-win Patriots. Justin Herbert has thrown 20 touchdowns and six interceptions and is playing with some of the best athletes in the NFL, including Keenan Allen, who has 1,117 yards on 97 catches in 11 games. New England's pass defense has been awful this season. Take the Chargers at -5.5.

Pick: Chargers -5.5

-Jason Radowitz

Lions vs. Saints

Both of these teams are coming off tough divisional losses. Detroit’s defense has been quickly dropping down the rankings after a strong start to the season. The pass defense specifically has taken a hit with injury and a difficulty to generate a pass rush. This week, however, they are tasked with stopping a Saints offense that seems keen on stopping themselves. Derek Carr has struggled mightily, especially in the redzone. The Saints managed over 20 points just once in the month of November and it was against the lowly Bear defense. Detroit has been stout defensively against the run, ranking 7th in DVOA and Carr’s struggles should negate the middle of pack pass defense. On the other side of the ball, New Orleans isn’t a defense one to play when you’re having turnover troubles like Goff. The good news for Detroit is that the Saint run defense being towards the bottom of the league (22nd in DVOA) means the game strategy should be to keep the ball on the ground. What this also means is the under is definitely in play and my favorite from this game.

Pick: Under 47

-Ryan Rodeman

Falcons vs. Jets

What's the bigger trap? Backing Desmond Ridder as a road favorite against a strong defense, or taking the points with Tim Boyle? The spot here screams take the home underdog with the best unit on the field. And the Jets are probably being disrespected with this number. But Tim Boyle... If the Jets had pretty much anyone else (sans Zach Wilson) under center, this would be a no-brainer type of bet. So while I'll lean the Jets, I feel somewhat more confident in the under. Both of these defenses rank within the top-11 in defensive EPA. And Atlanta's defense matches up well with the pitiful Jets offense. The Falcons rank second in run defense EPA, which should make matters even harder for Boyle and a Jets offense that will be leaning on Breece Hall to set up shorter passing downs. Atlanta's 18th-ranked pass defense doesn't matter against Boyle, who could get pulled for Trevor Siemian if things go awry. On the flip side, I'd expect the Jets to load up the box and trust their cornerbacks in single coverage against Ridder and a mediocre Falcons passing game.

Pick: Under 33.5 / Lean Jets +2

-Matt Barbato

Cardinals vs. Steelers

Most football fans were impressed with Pittsburgh's 400+ yard output last week against the Bengals. But with those 400+ yards, the Steelers only scored 16 points. That's not ideal. However, they're going to take on another lower-tier defense on Sunday in the Arizona Cardinals. The Cardinals have allowed nearly 27 points per game while allowing 140.08 yards on the ground. Look for Najee Harris and Jaylen Warren to put together good games. Although Diontae Johnson isn't always invested in the game, he and George Pickens will get to take on a Cardinals team that has been weak in the secondary all year. Plus, Pat Freiermuth is back from an injury that kept him out almost the entire middle portion of the season. His presence should also help the Steelers. Pittsburgh's played at an average level and are 7-4. If the offense starts to improve, the Steelers can actually be a tough out moving forward. However, I also like the Cardinals' offense on Sunday. Since Kyler Murray and James Conner returned, the offense has at least put points on the board. Arizona has averaged 18.3 points since those two returned, while the Cardinals have only scored 17.17 points per game this season. Let's take the Over 41.5.

Pick: Over 41.5

-Jason Radowitz

Panthers vs. Buccaneers

The Frank Reich era is over in Carolina seemingly before it even started. A horrendous defense (29th in DVOA) and a somehow even worse offense (30th in DVOA) is the most obvious culprit. The way Bryce Young has struggled and CJ Stroud, who was picked one pick later, looks to be running away with OROY played a role too. All the numbers suggest that Tampa should win this game and win it easily. However, historical data for interim coaches in their first game suggests otherwise. Since 2010, after firing a coach, teams are now 16-12 SU and 17-11 ATS. It’s a pretty significant trend considering before the firings, those teams were well under .500 ATS on the season. The trends won’t fare well for Chris Tabor going forward, but in this instance the Panthers have a great opportunity for a bounce back against a reeling Tampa Bay team.

Pick: Panthers +5.5

-Ryan Rodeman

Browns vs. Rams

It’s Week 13 of the 2023 season and Joe Flacco is starting a game. The Browns will go to Flacco with Deshaun Watson out for the year and backup Dorian Thompson-Robinson out for the game. Thankfully for the Browns, Myles Garrett appears to be a go against an offensive line that has only allowed 22 sacks so far this season. The Rams exploded last week for 37 points although it came against a Cardinals defense that is one of the worst in the league, ranking 30th in DVOA. Even with all of the big names on the Rams offense, they’ve only averaged 18.1 points in regulation in games against all other opponents. Cleveland is an elite defense, especially with Garrett in the lineup. On the other side of the ball, Flacco is a pro, but he struggled last year in some spot starts for the Jets. This offense, without Nick Chubb since Week 1, hasn’t been a scoring factory even when a healthy Deshaun Watson was under center. They sit near the bottom of the league in offensive statistics, especially in the passing game where they rank 29th in DVOA. Flacco is unlikely to give them much of a shot in the arm. I’m not so sure the Cleveland offense will be too explosive and I’m not convinced the Rams figured out their offensive woes. This game is shaping up for a prime under spot.

Pick: Under 40.5

-Ryan Rodeman

49ers vs. Eagles

I don't mean to disrespect the Philadelphia Eagles. They are a really, really good team. But the Eagles are probably fortunate to be sitting at 10-1. Just look at their last two games. The Eagles could've lost to the Chiefs two weeks ago had Marquez Valdes-Scantling caught a ball right in his hands. And last week's win over the Buffalo Bills was more of a Bills collapse than an Eagles comeback. Now, the San Francisco 49ers come to town healthy and with revenge on their minds from last year's NFC Championship game. I also have concerns about Philadelphia's defense. The Eagles have some issues in the secondary, where they rank 14th in pass defense EPA. Plus, a Philly run defense that ranks 24th in EPA could be without two key cogs up the middle, Fletcher Cox and Zach Cunningham. The 49ers just have more firepower in this matchup, and while Jalen Hurts and the Philly offense are finding ways to win, this offense just doesn't look right at times, as evidenced in the first half against Buffalo. San Francisco is the more complete team, and while I bet them earlier in the week at -115 on the moneyline, I'd still back San Fran to win straight up.

Pick: 49ers ML

-Matt Barbato

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