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NFL Odds, Picks & Predictions
Buccaneers vs. Falcons
This pivotal NFC South rematch has all the makings of going over the point total, which might come as a surprise given the total is as low at 40.5 in some spots. But to explain my thinking, let's look back at the first meeting between these teams in October. The game ended 16-13 in favor of Atlanta, which on the surface is not encouraging for our over. But a deeper dive into the box score suggests this game should've flown over the total. The teams combined for 730 total yards, but also committed five total turnovers while going 1-for-7 in the red zone. Tampa Bay's defense has regressed as of late, while Atlanta's defense could be without cornerback AJ Terrell. Bank on better execution in a game that could go over the total with relative ease.
Pick: Over 41
-Matt Barbato
Lions vs. Bears
The total for this game has been moving like crazy, as a nasty winter storm was expected to hit Solider Field on Sunday. But as it usually happens, the early forecasts were wrong. And while it won't be a glorious day on the gridiron, temperatures in the low 30's with only moderate winds and no precipitation is completely manageable. While I don't mind the over at 43 or better, I feel more confident in the home underdogs. Chicago's defense has shown improvement as the year's gone on, and it's gotten especially better against the pass thanks to the arrival of Montez Sweat as well as a healthier secondary. Meanwhile, Detroit has felt shaky ever since their ridiculous comeback victory over the Bears a few weeks ago. Jared Goff hasn't played well since that game, and Detroit's secondary is raising questions about the validity of this defense. I wouldn't be stunned if Chicago won outright.
Pick: Bears +3.5 / Over 43
-Matt Barbato
Colts vs. Bengals
The Bengals showed last Monday that they’re a team that could play a role in the playoff picture. They’ll take on a Colts team clinging to a Wild Card spot currently. There has certainly been drop off from Joe Burrow to Jake Browning, but Browning exceeded expectations in his last start at Jacksonville with a 32/37 day including 354 yards and a touchdown pass. They’ll take on a Colts team that has had their lapses defensively, allowing 27 or more points in five games this year. Jonathan Taylor will be out for the Colts, but against this Bengals team it might not matter. The Bengals still sit at 27th in defensive DVOA and the Colts have shown enough of an acumen offensively to prove they can put up points. There is some wind and cold temperatures in the forecast, but the nasty weather that might hit some other areas isn’t expected in Cincinnati. All of this is a recipe for an over.
Pick: Over 44
-Ryan Rodeman
Jaguars vs. Browns
The Browns are an incredibly tough team to gauge right now. Joe Flacco was fine in his Browns debut. But one thing is clear, the Browns probably can't count on Flacco to win them a shootout, as evidenced by last week's 29-12 loss to the Rams. The good news is, Cleveland's defense has been far more ferocious at home, and their defense should be enough to cover as short home favorites against C.J. Beathard and a Jaguars team I'm just not that impressed with even when Trevor Lawrence is healthy.
Pick: Browns -3
-Matt Barbato
Panthers vs. Saints
The Panthers head to New Orleans in this NFC South contest. The Panthers sit last in the NFL standings but due to having traded their 1st round pick away, they really have no incentive to keep losing. A nice bounce back last week saw them cover against the Buccaneers even with crazy line movement in their direction during the week. This week they sit as six-point underdogs against a Saint team that has an offense that looks broken. Derek Carr has cleared concussion protocols and is expected to start, but there were much higher expectations than the 21st-ranked DVOA pass offense when he arrived. The Panthers showed last week, after their coach was fired, that they still have some fight in them. I like the Panthers as the road division underdog.
Pick: Panthers +6
-Ryan Rodeman
Texans vs. Jets
The New York Jets have made the switch at quarterback. They're rolling with Zach Wilson again after benching him for the previous two weeks. It's clear that he's the best quarterback on the roster. It's also clear that the Jets, with four wins, aren't making the postseason. Wilson will be allowed to make more mistakes. He'll have no pressure on his shoulders and can just go to work. Many Jets receivers were open last week. They just never got the ball from Tim Boyle and Trevor Semien. That'll change with Wilson under center. However, the Texans, although without Tank Dell, still have one of the best passing games in the NFL. They'll need to utilize the run game more against the Jets. However, C.J. Stroud still has Nico Collins and Noah Brown to throw the ball to. I'm going to ride the Over 33.5 in this game.
Pick: Over 33.5
-Jason Radowitz
Rams vs. Ravens
The Rams are on a three-game winning streak. That's pushed them back in the playoff hunt, at 6-6 on the season. The Los Angeles offense has added at least 36 points in back-to-back games, while the offense has held teams to below 20 points in all three games during the win streak. However, the Ravens have scored at least 31 points in four of their last five games. Although Lamar Jackson is listed as questionable, the Ravens expect him to play coming out of the bye week. The Ravens have a lot of weapons on offense and have played like a top defense in the NFL this season. Baltimore has scored 27 points and has allowed 15.58 points per game this season. That's an 11.42-point differential, while the Rams have a 1.25-point differential this season between offense and defense. I'll take the Ravens at home, -7.5.
Pick: Ravens -7.5
-Jason Radowitz
Vikings vs. Raiders
The Vikings have decided to give Joshua Dobbs another chance at quarterback this week. In Week 12, Dobbs threw four interceptions, resulting in a bad loss to the Bears. But the Vikings had the entire bye week to think about it and still believe Dobbs gives them the best chance to win. Prior to that game, Dobbs was balling out. But without those mistakes against the Bears, the Vikings would be over .500 by a couple of games. Instead, they're 6-6 on the season. With Justin Jefferson returning, Dobbs should at least perform better this week against an average Raiders defense. Meanwhile, the Raiders have lost two straight after earning back-to-back wins in Antonio Pierce's debut as head coach. However, those losses were to the Dolphins and Chiefs. Most teams will lose to those squads. The Vikings need a win at home to stay in the playoff hunt. They're 5-7 and have the Chargers, Chiefs, Colts, and Broncos left on the schedule after this one. I think the Raiders' defense finds a way to win this one. I'll take the home underdog at +3.
Pick: Raiders +3
-Jason Radowitz
Seahawks vs. 49ers
On Thanksgiving, the 49ers earned a 31-13 win over the Seahawks on the road. Now they'll be home for this matchup. It's unlikely we get a different result. Brock Purdy is in the MVP conversation and only had a three-game stretch before the bye week where he struggled. He might've been dealing with a concussion at that time. He's super accurate and has a ton of playmakers around him. In some games, it's Christian McCaffrey. In other games, it's Deebo Samuel. Brandon Aiyuk and George Kittle have also had some massive games. Any week a couple of these guys step up and make big plays offensively. Meanwhile, Geno Smith and the Seahawks have taken a step backward this season offensively. Finally, when the offense figured it out last week, the Seahawks' defense allowed 41 points in a 41-35 loss. Seattle has lost four of its last five games. They'll take another loss here and fall below .500. Back the 49ers against the spread at -11.
Pick: 49ers -11
-Jason Radowitz
Bills vs. Chiefs
These two teams entered the year as prohibitive AFC favorites, but I'm just not sure either team has the goods to make a run this year. While Kansas City's defense is strong, and the Patrick Mahomes-Travis Kelce connection is the league's best, Kansas City's lack of viable wide receivers could be the team's ultimate Achilles' heel. Meanwhile, Buffalo hasn't recovered from the rash of injuries the team suffered on defense earlier in the year, and the Bills have blown their fair share of games this year. I could this when Buffalo was getting three points, and still lean Buffalo even at +1.5. The spot favors Buffalo, who is coming off a bye while Kansas City returns home after losing at Green Bay. And I don't think Kansas City has the firepower on the outside to exploit Buffalo's ailing secondary. I also don't mind a play on the over, as both teams should come out guns blazing in a massive game.
Pick: Bills +1.5
-Matt Barbato
Broncos vs. Chargers
The Broncos took a tough loss against Texans last week that broke their five-game winning streak and could determine if they get a playoff spot. Many thought that they would be rebuilding the team after they struggled to start the season, but the defense has been stellar, allowing under 20 points in four of the last seven games this year. It's been a disastrous year for the Chargers as they sit tied for last place in the AFC West and have dropped three of the last four. In that one win, the offense only accumulated 241 total yards and no touchdowns in a 6-0 victory against the Patriots. The Chargers are getting the home-field advantage, but at only 2.5, there isn't much confidence. Despite the results from last week, Denver looks like the better team, and they have the momentum to pull off a needed win.
Pick: Broncos +2.5
-John Supowitz
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