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NFL Odds, Picks & Predictions: Saturday
Vikings vs. Bengals
The Vikings and Bengals will square off on Saturday afternoon with both teams in need of a win to improve their playoff chances. It’s also another example of backup quarterback against backup quarterback. As far as backups go, Jake Browning has been pretty impressive for Cincinnati. His 75.5% completion percentage paces the league and his 9.1 yards per attempt trails only MVP darkhorse Brock Purdy. In his last two starts, since the Burrow injury, the Bengals have scored 34 points against a Jaguars and Colts team that rank 8th and 14th in defensive DVOA, respectively. The advanced numbers love this Viking defense, and this could be a real test for Browning and the Bengals. Minnesota will be looking to Nick Mullens at quarterback after giving up on the Josh Dobbs experience. The injuries continue to mount for this Minnesota offense with Alexander Mattison and Justin Jefferson questionable. I’m concerned that the Vikings can’t keep overcoming these injuries. This game should play out like another low-scoring affair that Minnesota has become accustomed to recently.
Pick: Under 40.5
-Ryan Rodeman
Steelers vs. Colts
This is the spot to back the Pittsburgh Steelers. They're coming off embarrassing consecutive losses to two of the league's worst teams at home. They're on the road, and the world has written them off. That's just where Mike Tomlin wants his team. Okay, maybe not exactly, but the Steelers are 38-26-2 ATS as a road underdog under Tomlin. Pittsburgh is also 55-41-1 ATS off a loss, ad 25-19-2 with a rest advantage under Tomlin. Sure, Mitchell Trubisky stinks, but how much worse is he than Gardner Minshew? I see Pittsburgh relying heavily on its running game against a Colts defense that's declining and ranks 29th in run defense EPA. This same unit also struggled to stop a Jake Browning-led Bengals offense a week prior. Defensively, T.J. Watt cleared concussion protocol, which gives me more than enough reason to trust this defense in a must-win game against a mistake-prone quarterback. Give me Pittsburgh.
Pick: Steelers +1.5
-Matt Barbato
Broncos vs. Lions
There's more room on the Detroit Lions bandwagon than there's been all year, and now's the time for me to hop on. This feels like your classic buy-low spot on a Lions team that's struggled as of late, as well as a sell-high spot on a Broncos team that's definitely played better, but has gotten some serious turnover luck. Denver's defense is improving, no doubt. But over the last four weeks they've faced Joshua Dobbs, who is now benched in Minnesota, Dorian Thompson-Robinson in his second professional start, who is also no longer the starter, C.J. Stroud in a game they lost, and Easton Stick. They've also recorded 17 takeaways in their last six games, and while they certainly deserve credit, turnovers aren't always sustainable. And even with all of those takeaways, the Broncos defense ranks 19th and 28th in pass and run defense EPA respectively. Jared Goff is far better inside the friendly confines of Ford Field than outdoors, and this feels like a good spot to buy back in on a Lions team that'll surely be motivated after its lackluster effort in Chicago.
Pick: Lions -4.5
-Matt Barbato
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