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NFL Odds, Picks & Predictions
Bears vs. Browns
The Cleveland Browns are three games ahead of .500 with Joe Flacco under center. Not only did the Browns sign Flacco off the couch, but they've just signed him to a full one-year deal to remain the quarterback for the Browns this season. But while the offense has had success recently, the defense has lost a lot of players to injury. Grant Delpt was the last one to get injured. The Browns still have a solid pass rush and a secondary that plays well. However, Cleveland has never been dominant against the run. That's where the Browns come in. The Bears have won three of their last four games and have run very well in most of them. Chicago's win over the Lions last week was its best win of the season. The defense has held the Lions and Vikings to 23 points in the last eight quarters, and the offense is moving the ball well. That said, I'll back the Bears at +3 on the road. Chicago's playing great football right now.
Pick: Bears +3 (-110)
-Jason Radowitz
Falcons vs. Panthers
The Falcons are competing with the Saints and Buccaneers for the NFC South. They're all in the mix. However, the Panthers aren't. They've already been eliminated from contention a couple of weeks ago. Although the Falcons have lost three of their last five, the Panthers haven't won a game since October. Carolina's Bryce Young has been very inaccurate and doesn't have much talent around him. He's also had to deal with multiple play callers this season and hasn't had any consistency with coaching this season. While Atlanta's secondary and pass rush is average, the run defense is stellar. If Carolina can't pass the ball, they surely won't be able to rush the ball very well, either. Meanwhile, Desmond Ridder is coming off one of his best games as an NFL quarterback. He added 347 yards passing in a four-point loss. While Ridder isn't consistently accurate either, the difference is that the Falcons have playmakers like Drake London, Bijan Robinson, and Kyle Pitts. Back the Falcons -3.
Pick: Falcons -3 (-110)
-Jason Radowitz
Buccaneers vs. Packers
The Buccaneers and Packers are both 6-7 on the season. This is a big one for both teams when it comes to competing for a playoff spot. While the Packers lost to the Giants on Monday night, prior to that game, Green Bay was on a three-game winning streak. Jordan Love helped Green Bay get ahead of the Giants in under two minutes. Most thought that was going to be the game-winning drive. The defense couldn't hold on. But I enjoyed seeing the poise out of Jordan Love. With Christian Watson and Adam Jones expected to return, the offense should have more cohesion in this game. On the other hand, the Buccaneers have been more inconsistent this season. The defense has been weak in the secondary and hasn't done any better against the run. I'm going to roll with Green Bay at home at -3.5. Tampa Bay playing in the freezing cold likely won't go well.
Pick: Packers -3.5 (-110)
-Jason Radowitz
Texans vs. Titans
At this point, C.J. Stroud will be a game-time decision. I'd advise anyone looking to bet on this game to look at injury reports continuously to see if Stroud will play. Right now, it's more likely that Davis Mills will get the start. Mills didn't do enough last year, or the Texans would've drafted someone other than Stroud with the No. 2 pick. I wouldn't trust Mills with this offense. Tank Dell is out for the season. But also Nico Collins and Noah Brown are listed as questionable for this game. Even if Stroud plays, it likely won't be pretty. We've seen other quarterbacks come back early from concussions and struggle. Look at Brock Purdy, for example, in a couple of games before the bye week earlier this year. Meanwhile, the Titans just earned a massive come-from-behind win over the Dolphins. That's going to add some hype and momentum to the locker room. The Titans certainly believe in Levis if they didn't before. Let's take the Titans at -3.
Pick: Titans -3 (-110)
-Jason Radowitz
Jets vs. Dolphins
Injuries for Miami have thrown a monkey wrench into this game, as the Dolphins could be without three starting offensive linemen along with Tyreek Hill, De'Von Achane, Xavien Howard and Jevon Holland. My guess is Hill will play, but even with Hill in the lineup the Dolphins offense could struggle against a strong Jets defense that generates tons of pressure and could give Tua Tagovailoa plenty of issues. Meanwhile, New York's offense showed a pulse after going back to Zach Wilson under center, and he's clearly the better option over Tim Boyle, whose most notable Jets moment was throwing a Hail Mary that was intercepted and returned for a touchdown at the end of the first half in the first meeting on Black Friday. Keep an eye on the injury report, but either way I'd lean with the underdog Jets who showed some resolve last week against Houston.
Pick: Jets +9.5 (-110)
-Matt Barbato
Chiefs vs. Patriots
Rumors have swirled all week about Bill Belichick’s future in New England. The Patriots offense has taken a few steps back over the last two seasons, but the defense has shaped back into form after a few key injuries earlier in the year. They sit 10th in defensive DVOA, just one spot behind Kansas City. New England has given up 20 or less in five straight contests, although against some weak offenses. The Chiefs should have a bit more success, but as much as some of the advanced stats love their offense, it isn’t producing the same kind of results that it was the previous few seasons. The Patriots may be turning the corner a bit themselves on offense after moving to Bailey Zappe last week. He managed 240 yards and 3 TDs against a stout Pittsburgh defense. The Patriots’ side has already taken a lot of steam this week and the number has been dropping all week. Even still, I like the value on the Patriots here and am taking them to cover.
Pick: Patriots +8 (-110)
-Ryan Rodeman
Giants vs. Saints
A lot of NFL fans will complain about the quarterback injuries this season and the amount of backups making starts. Admittedly, most of the time it’s creating a lesser product, but certain stories have captured the heart of NFL fans everywhere, none more than perhaps Giants’ QB Tommy DeVito. His last three games have actually been impressive. 595 yards, 5 TDs and a 72.2% completion percentage in the last three wins show that he can play at a high level and win. The Saints on the other hand have been struggling as of late. A win last week over the lowly Panthers aside, they were coming off of four straight games where they either lost or were tied in the fourth quarter. The offensive passing game hasn’t found its groove under QB Derek Carr. They sit 22nd in DVOA and could struggle again here against a Giant pass defense that had success against Jordan Love last week. The matchup indicates this could be an under play, but I don’t love taking unders at the Superdome. However, I’m not afraid to take a big underdog in a game that could be low scoring.
Pick: Giants +6 (-110)
-Ryan Rodeman
Commanders vs. Rams
Did you know the Washington Commanders rank 32nd in defensive EPA, 32nd in pass defense EPA and 26th in pressure rate? This is the result of trading your top two pass rushers away, further exposing your porous secondary. Washington has also given up at least 29 points in their last four games. Matthew Stafford and the L.A. offense should have no trouble finding success through the air against this defense. The reason why I'm not as bullish on the Rams -6.5 is because Sam Howell and the Commanders could find similar success coming off their bye week. The Rams rank 22nd in defensive EPA, 21st in pass defense EPA and 27th in pressure rate. The Rams are also below average against the run, for what it's worth. This game has a bit too much variance for me to lay a big number with the Rams. But I'll gladly take the over up to the key number of 51, as there should be plenty of points to be had. And I don’t mind a play on Los Angeles’ team total going over either.
Pick: Over 50.5 (-110)
-Matt Barbato
49ers vs. Cardinals
Remember when the 49ers lost a couple of games, the football world was telling them to pack it in? Well, they've now won five straight by an average margin of 25.2 points. Brock Purdy has gone from Mr. Irrelevant to MVP consideration as this well-balanced offense runs like a machine. Then you add the defense, and they are championship caliber. The Cardinals got Kyler Murray back, but this team is much better. Standing at 3-10, this team will have a high draft pick and decisions for their future will be made. San Fransisco has put that losing streak behind and they roll through this game.
Pick: 49ers -12.5 (-110)
-John Supowitz
Cowboys vs. Bills
The Cowboys are one of the hottest teams in the league, as they've come in winning eight of their last ten. Dak Prescott has emerged after a rough start to the season, and now his 28 touchdowns lead the league, and the 74.6 QBR is second. The Bills' season has been a roller coaster ride, and now they need to win in order to even have a chance to make the playoffs. Does Josh Allen throw a lot of picks? Yeah, but he also has the most total touchdowns and is third in QBR. It's important to know the Bills' offense would be mediocre if he weren't their quarterback. While each team has talent on the defensive side, both teams possess one of the better offenses in the league. This could turn into an offensive showdown, so look for the over.
Pick: Over 50 (-110)
-John Supowitz
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