I went 2-1 with my anytime TD scorer & win parlays last week after going 3-0 the week prior. And for the second week in a row, I was even able to highlight a potential winner at much better odds than my standard picks. Even though I am not counting either of those longshots towards my "official" record, it feels good knowing I am seeing the field well, so to speak.
But the grind never stops, and this week presents its own unique challenges. Last week had a bunch of games with very large point spreads. That is not the case this week. Only three games have spreads of seven points or more. Still, I believe I have identified some opportunities for us to capitalize on. Here are my three favorite Week 16 anytime touchdown scorer & win parlays.
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NFL Week 16 Anytime TD Scorer & Win Parlays
(All bets are for one unit, unless otherwise stated)
Philadelphia Eagles at Washington Commanders
For my first Week 16 anytime TD scorer & win parlay, I am revisiting one of last week's winners. I am targeting Saturday's matchup between the Philadelphia Eagles and the Washington Commanders. This is a strange occurrence because it will be the first matchup of the season between these division rivals. Philadelphia can wrap up an NFC East title with a victory versus the Commanders. Washington is playing out the string and will once again be without quarterback Jayden Daniels. The Commanders may put up a fight, but I expect them to fall short on Saturday. Give me Philadelphia on the moneyline portion of this same-game parlay (SGP).
The Eagles have several players who can find the end zone in any given game. Four different Eagles have scored at least seven touchdowns this season. That does not even count DeVonta Smith, who leads the team in both receptions and receiving yards. The Philadelphia pass-catching corps has some solid odds depending on which sportsbook you use. Ultimately, however, I am going back to the well with running back Saquon Barkley. Barkley has been unable to replicate his historic 2024 season. But if you are giving me plus-odds on him to score and the Eagles to win in this matchup, I am taking it and not thinking twice about it.
For the season, Washington has allowed the third-most scrimmage yards to opposing running backs. They have also given up 16 total touchdowns to the position. Washington has been particularly vulnerable recently in that regard. In their last five games, the Commanders have allowed nine scores to opposing backs. Three starting running backs in that span have scored multiple touchdowns versus Washington. Philadelphia will want to put this game away early and demoralize the Commanders. I expect them to do so with a heavy dose of Barkley. Barkley has scored in six out of 10 games in which he has logged at least 18 touches. I look for that trend to continue and for Barkley to score at least one touchdown on Saturday.
Bet: Saquon Barkley Anytime Touchdown Scorer/Philadelphia Eagles to Win (+131 at Caesars Sportsbook)
Buffalo Bills at Cleveland Browns
I am usually not too keen on targeting stout defenses. And, for the most part, the Cleveland Browns have fit that bill. However, their run defense has sprung some leaks in recent weeks. Over the past two weeks, Cleveland has allowed 311 rushing yards to opposing running backs. They have also given up four rushing scores to opposing rushers in that timeframe. Both of those numbers are the second-most in the league. Things may not get much easier for the Browns on Sunday when they battle the Buffalo Bills. Buffalo leads the NFL in rushing yards and is tied with Indianapolis for the league lead with 24 rushing touchdowns.
When it comes to rushing production, the Bills are led by the two-headed monster of running back James Cook and quarterback Josh Allen. Cook ranks second in the NFL in rushing yards and has 12 total touchdowns. The 12 touchdowns are tied for seventh-most in the league. One of the players Cook is tied with is Allen himself. But the Browns have been quite adept at limited production on the ground from quarterbacks this year. Opposing signal-callers have only rushed for 166 yards all year long versus Cleveland. That is the fourth-lowest number in the league. The Browns have ceded just one rushing score to a quarterback this season. That is tied for the third-lowest number in the league. Because of this, I am going with Cook as my preferred touchdown target in this matchup.
As far as the game itself is concerned, I believe the Bills will beat the Browns. Cleveland has been a plucky team at home at times. But close losses early in the season to the Cincinnati Bengals and Minnesota Vikings seem less impressive in retrospect. Looking back, Cleveland's only good win this year came way back in Week 3 versus the Green Bay Packers. The Browns have lost six of their last seven games, including losses to the lowly New York Jets and Tennessee Titans. Buffalo is fighting to win their division and still has an outside shot at the top seed in the AFC. I expect the Bills to get ahead early and lean on their running game to close it out. I am betting on Buffalo to win and Cook to score at least one touchdown in the process.
Bet: James Cook Anytime Touchdown Scorer/Buffalo Bills to Win (+102 at Caesars Sportsbook)
Pittsburgh Steelers at Detroit Lions
Sunday afternoon's meeting between the Pittsburgh Steelers and Detroit Lions features two teams with identical records. But this does not feel like an even matchup to me. Detroit has a 73-point edge in season-long point differential compared to the Steelers. Detroit's offense is ranked third in the NFL in DVOA (defense-adjusted value over average), while Pittsburgh's defense is ranked 12th. The Lions also sport a top-10 defense (eighth in DVOA), whereas the Steelers rank 16th in that metric. Detroit even has the special teams edge, as its units rank eighth compared to 17 for Pittsburgh. Throw in home-field advantage for the Lions facing a Steelers team traveling on a short week, and I anticipate Detroit taking care of business with their season on the line.
The odds for Detroit's top touchdown scorer are very interesting to me, considering the data. Jahmyr Gibbs is at least -230 at every sportsbook I looked at to score a touchdown this week. I will now point out that Pittsburgh has allowed six touchdowns to opposing running backs for the entire season. (For reference, the New York Jets have allowed seven in the last two weeks.) Of course, Gibbs is a special talent and can score from anywhere on the football field. He has scored three times in three of Detroit's last six games. But I cannot bet on someone at this price in such a difficult matchup. Instead, I am going to pivot to Detroit's top-two receiving targets - Amon-Ra St. Brown and Jameson Williams.
I believe both players are viable options. Pittsburgh plays man defense at the sixth-highest rate in the NFL. Among 62 wide receivers who have earned at least 15 targets this year versus man coverage, Williams and St. Brown are neck-and-neck in terms of yards per route run. Williams ranks seventh at 2.88, and St. Brown is eighth at 2.87. The major difference is down by the goal line. St. Brown has produced seven touchdowns against man coverage, while Williams has scored four times. St. Brown is also one of the most heavily-targeted receivers in the league inside the 10-yard line (16). Meanwhile, Williams has been targeted just twice in that area of the field. Now let's consider the odds.
The best price I have seen for a St. Brown/Lions SGP is +140 at DraftKings Sportsbook. FanDuel Sportsbook has the best odds for Williams to score and Detroit to win at +207. Implied odds give the St. Brown parlay a 41.7% chance of hitting. The Williams alternative has a 32.6% chance of cashing in. Considering the disparity in usage in scoring territory, I believe there should be a greater than 9.1% difference in these parlays. Therefore, I am picking St. Brown as my anytime touchdown scorer in this game.
Bet: Amon-Ra St. Brown Anytime Touchdown Scorer/Detroit Lions to Win (+140 at DraftKings Sportsbook)
