Someone must score the first touchdown of the game, and this article will help you increase your odds of hitting on that player based on matchups and team strengths. It will feature selections for games on the Sunday slate.
I will track my plays here on BettingPros. Let's get to the NFL Week 16 first touchdown scorers.
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NFL Week 16 First Touchdown Scorer Picks & Predictions
Los Angeles Chargers @ Dallas Cowboys
Omarion Hampton is not seeing the same usage he saw before his injury, but he is getting valuable touches. He is averaging a 33.5% snap share, with 14 carries in his two games back from injury.
Hampton has six red-zone rushing attempts in those games, while Kimani Vidal only has one. The Cowboys' run defense has improved in the second half of the season, but they can still get exploited. Quinnen Williams is in concussion protocol, which would help Hampton's case if he is not able to get cleared.
Pick: Omarion Hampton (+800 at bet365)
Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ Carolina Panthers
Mike Evans returned from injury last week with a bang. He only played 55% of snaps, but had 12 targets, six receptions and 132 yards. He had a 35% target share and showed why he is the focal point of Baker Mayfield and this Buccaneers' offense.
Evans lines up against the Panthers this week, whom he has tormented recently. He has 36 receptions, 606 yards and seven touchdowns in his last five games against them. Mayfield loves him in the red zone, too, which should help his chances of finding the end zone first. Evans offers excellent value in a game where there is no clear-cut favorite to score first.
Pick: Mike Evans (+950 at DraftKings Sportsbook)
Buffalo Bills @ Cleveland Browns
The Browns have a scary run defense on paper, and it looked that way to start the season. It has faltered down the stretch, however, and part of that is allowing touchdowns. They have allowed five rushing touchdowns in their last three games, including two apiece to the Titans and Bears.
Both of those teams also ran for 180 and 131 rushing yards from the running back position, respectively. The Bills lead the league in rushing play rate (49.83%) and should give Cook a lot of opportunities in this matchup.
Pick: James Cook III (+450 at DraftKings Sportsbook)
Pittsburgh Steelers @ Detroit Lions
Jahmyr Gibbs was held in check by the Rams' defense, but that has not happened two weeks in a row all season. The Steelers have a solid run defense, but it is nowhere near as good as the Rams. They give up 102.6 rushing yards per game to running backs and 32.1 receiving yards per game to the position.
Gibbs is too talented, and the Lions must get the ball in his hands early and often. T.J. Watt is also out for this game, which should help Gibbs capture the edge. He is the clear-cut favorite to score first for a reason, and this is a good week to bet on him.
Pick: Jahmyr Gibbs (+370 at DraftKings Sportsbook)
Jacksonville Jaguars @ Denver Broncos
Jakobi Meyers just inked a three-year extension with the Jaguars instead of hitting free agency this offseason. The question this week is, who will Patrick Surtain II shadow? Meyers has been more productive, but Brian Thomas Jr. has had two consecutive solid outings.
Meyers is also the deep-play target, so it would make sense for Surtain to shadow him and force the Jaguars to beat them underneath. Meyers also has three touchdowns in his last four games and has developed a lot of trust with Trevor Lawrence. It is a scary play, but it could pay off if Surtain shadows Thomas.
Pick: Jakobi Meyers (+1200 at DraftKings Sportsbook)
