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NFL Week 17 Monday Night Football Picks & Player Prop Bets (Lions vs. 49ers)

Author image by Andrew Erickson | @AndrewErickson_ | Dec 29, 2024
Author image by Andrew Erickson | @AndrewErickson_ | Dec 29, 2024
Week 17 Monday Night Football Betting Primer

Welcome to the final NFL betting article for Week 17 from BettingPros! I’m Andrew Erickson, your guide to Week 17’s Monday Night Football. In this solo MNF edition, we’re laser-focused on the highly anticipated matchup as we continue into the stretch of NFL regular season action. From expert insights on the spread and total to can’t-miss player props, I’ll help you craft the perfect single-game parlay for Monday night between the Detroit Lions and San Francisco 49ers.

Get ready, folks-it’s time to place those BETS. Let’s dive into my top picks and player prop bets for Monday Night Football.

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Monday Night Primer

Detroit Lions @ San Francisco 49ers

Sides:

  • The 49ers have failed to cover the spread in six of their last seven games.
  • The 49ers have failed to cover the spread in nine of their last 10 games against teams with winning records.
  • The 49ers have failed to cover the spread in 12 of their last 15 home games.
  • The road team has covered the spread in 17 of the 49ers’ last 27 games.
  • San Francisco is 15-7 ATS when they score 23-plus points since the start of 2023.
  • The 49ers were the most overrated team at home in 2023 ATS, going 3-7, which was fourth-worst in the NFL in 2023.
  • So far, in 2024, they are 4-4 ATS at home. They covered against the Patriots/Jets/Cowboys/Bears but not against Arizona/Kansas City/Seattle/L.A. Rams.
  • The 49ers have covered the spread four times in their last 15 home games.
  • The 49ers are 9-10 ATS as road favorites in their last 19 games.
  • The 49ers have failed to cover the spread in their last nine games following a win.
  • The 49ers have won the first quarter in each of their last seven home games.
  • The Lions have scored last in each of their last five games against the 49ers.
  • The Lions have covered the spread in 11 of their last 13 road games.
  • The Lions have covered the spread in 10 of their last 13 games.
  • The Lions have covered the spread in 16 of their last 22 games.
  • The Lions are 24-11 ATS as favorites.
  • They have been 70%-plus ATS favorites since the start of 2023 and are 20-9 ATS over their last 29 games (70%). When in doubt? Lions ATS for the win.
  • The Lions have won 12 of their last 13 games.
  • The Lions have covered the spread as favorites in 15 of their last 20 games.
  • The Lions have won 13 of their last 16 home games.
  • The Lions have won their last 13 games against opponents on a winning streak.
  • The Lions have been the first to 15 points in 17 of their last 19 games.
  • The Lions have been the first to 15 points in 11 of their last 12 home games.
  • The Lions have covered the spread in their last 13 road games following a home win.
  • The Lions have won each of their last 10 games following a loss
  • The Lions have covered the spread in each of their last four games against the 49ers.

Totals:

  • Eleven of the 49ers’ last 17 games have gone OVER the total points line.
  • The 49ers are 4-4 toward the over at home, averaging 43.5 points per game.
  • Seven of the 49ers’ last eight games against AFC opponents have gone OVER the total points line.
  • Three of the Lions’ last four road games have gone under the total.
  • Eight of the Lions' last 12 games have gone OVER the total points line.
  • Seventeen of the Lions’ last 26 games have gone OVER the total points line.
  • The average total in the Lions’ last 27 home games has been 55.7 points; 74% (20/27) of the games have scored at least 51 points.
  • Ten of the Lions’ last 14 home games have gone OVER the total points line.
  • Each of the Lions’ last three games has gone OVER the total points line.

DK Christmas 24

Overall:

I faded the Lions in Week 16 and got burned to a crisp. However, I also faded the 49ers on the road to success. Back at home, the 49ers are catching 3.5 points against the Lions on MNF. And it's not nearly enough points.

The Lions are the class of the NFC and boast the best record ATS since HC Dan Campbell took over. Meanwhile, the 49ers are getting credit for playing at home - despite their terrible record ATS when hosting.

They don't beat good teams, and Detroit is elite. Don’t overthink this one. Continue to fade the 49ers and buy the dip on the Lions playing on the road.

As for the total, it's huge at 50.5 points. Everything in my being wants to pound the over, but I think I'd rather just stay away. As bad as the Lions' defense has been, the 49ers’ offense has been so disappointing this season with all the injuries they have endured. They have more injuries on their OL entering this game.

According to Next Gen Stats, entering Week 17, Kyle Shanahan announced that starting left tackle Trent Williams, starting left guard Aaron Banks, and tackle Jaylon Moore, who had filled in at left tackle for the injured Williams since Week 12, would miss the remaining two games this season. Since 2022, the 49ers offense has averaged 5.3 yards per play with Williams and Banks off the field, a full yard less than their average with the duo both on the field (6.3).

Just stick to the sides, and the Lions -3.5.

For first/opening TD bets, I do think there is some value in the 49ers jumping out to a lead. Also means that betting more on the Lions live ATS is a worthwhile proposition.

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Props:

Jahmyr Gibbs has recorded 60+ rushing yards in each of the Lions’ last 10 games as road favorites. The 49ers have allowed the fourth-most rushing yards to running backs over the last four weeks (and three rushing five rushing touchdowns).

Gibbs also has 30-plus receiving yards in three straight games. Even after going for 45 yards through the air last week, his prop line has stayed close to 27.5 yards (30.5 last week).

Jared Goff has recorded 269+ passing yards in five of the Lions’ last six games. Sam LaPorta has 3.5-plus receptions in three straight games.

Per DraftKings Sportsbook, Brock Purdy has recorded 252+ passing yards in each of the 49ers’ last three games with a total points line of at least 50.0.

Go over on Purdy's passing yards projection this week. He has been bad in three of his last five. But he has exceeded this number in 7 of his 14 games this season - five of 10 with Kittle, Samuel, and Jennings all in the lineup.

Jauan Jennings had a quieter game last week but still had a notable impact with four receptions for 51 yards on six targets. He was still the team's air yards leader (81, 45%) and just fell victim to the other WRs in the offense popping off instead. He should easily bounce back versus the Lions - who have allowed the second-most receiving yards to WRs this season.

Tight end George Kittle has over 66.5 yards in five of his last eight games.

My Picks:

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