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NFL Odds, Picks & Predictions
Patriots vs. Bills
It wasn't long ago when the Bills were looking like they'd miss out on the playoffs. Now the Bills are 9-6 and have a home game against a four-win Patriots team. However, the Patriots team has won two of their last three games, including road wins against Pittsburgh and Denver. In a rivalry matchup, the Patriots will show up. The offense has added at least 17 points in each of their last three games, with Bailey Zappe under center. On the other hand, the Bills have scored at least 20 points in each of their last five games. They've really started to figure things out as an offense since Joe Brady took over as the offensive coordinator. James Cook has been getting involved more, and Josh Allen is making better reads and decisions. Buffalo certainly hasn't been perfect. That's why I think the Patriots stick around and score some points. Although it's a rivalry game in the cold, the Over is appealing.
Pick: Over 40.5
-Jason Radowitz
Falcons vs. Bears
Atlanta made the switch from Desmond Ridder to Taylor Henicke at quarterback, and it paid dividends immediately. The Falcons added 29 points against the Colts in a 29-10 win last week. Heinicke threw for 229 yards and one touchdown. He also didn't throw an interception, while the run game added about six yards a carry between Bijan Robinson, Tyler Allgeier, and Cordarrellle Patterson. It would still be better if Drake London and Kyle Pitts were more involved. However, against the Bears, it would make more sense for the Falcons to utilize their run game. The Bears are weak up front and have missed so many tackles. However, the secondary has played really well, earning more than an interception per game. Meanwhile, the Bears have won three of their last four games. The offense is starting to click with Justin Fields. This is important because he's trying to keep his job, knowing the Bears will have Carolina's No. 1 pick in the NFL Draft this year. I think he's proved enough. With Atlanta's pass defense weakening and the missed tackles piling up, let's take the Over in this game.
Pick: Over 37.5
-Jason Radowitz
Raiders vs. Colts
All of the focus in the AFC will be on Miami/Baltimore, but this game might have one of the biggest influences to the playoff picture. The Raiders are coming off of a huge win in Kansas City in front of a national audience. The final score looked impressive for the Raiders, but the box score tells a slightly different story. Kansas City outgained the Raiders by more than 100 yards. Las Vegas was able to take advantage of two Chief turnovers returning both for touchdowns. In addition Kansas City turned the ball over twice on downs and missed a field goal. Things could have gone very differently if not for those massive game-changing plays. Indianapolis, however laid an egg against Atlanta. They’re still in the thick of the AFC South title chase. The Raiders are coming off of two consecutive big wins in nationally televised games and it’s going to entice a lot of people to back them, but the Colts have been the better team, especially on the offensive end. It’s time to fade this red-hot Raider team and back a Colts team that needs this win to stay in the AFC South race.
Pick: Colts -3.5
-Ryan Rodeman
Rams vs. Giants
It feels like we haven’t had too many spots featuring a West Coast team traveling East for a 1 p.m. local kickoff. These are spots I typically gravitate toward, but it’s especially enticing when the traveling team is laying points. I was encouraged by what I saw from the Giants offense once Tyrod Taylor reassumed the starting job. And while Tommy DeVito was a fun ride, the offense was clearly sputtering. I also expect an aggressive Giants defense that blitzes early and often to give the less mobile Matthew Stafford some problems. So long as the G-Men can contain Kyren Williams and the Rams rushing attack, they should be able to find enough points offensively against a subpar Rams stop unit. Take the Giants at anything above a field goal.
Pick: Giants +5.5
-Matt Barbato
Cardinals vs. Eagles
The Eagles got back on the right track last week with a convincing win against the Giants, scoring 35 points and having a total of 465 yards. The offense has to continue to play at the top of their game because the defense continues to struggle; although they've allowed under 200 passing yards in back-to-back games, the quarterback they saw were Drew Lock, Tommy DeVito, and Tyrod Taylor. Luckily, the Cardinals have struggled defensively this year by allowing the second-most points and the sixth-most total yards. Philly should have another offensive outburst against a poor Arizona defense; the Cardinals have scored over 20 points in two of their last three games, so don't be surprised if they do it again and push this total over.
Pick: Over 48.5
-John Supowitz
Saints vs. Buccaneers
Prior to the season, most prognosticators had the Saints or the Falcons as the favorites to win the NFC South, but here in Week 17 it’s the Buccaneers that have an opportunity to clinch with a win. They’ll host the Saints at home after they blew them out 26-9 in New Orleans early in the season. Baker Mayfield and this offense have been firing on all cylinders in the month of December. The Tampa offense has been putting up 28.5 points per game on this current four game win streak. The Saints created a culture of a tough defense in the latter years of Sean Payton and pinning Dennis Allen as the head coach when Payton left, they hoped to keep that momentum going. Unfortunately that hasn’t worked out. They sit 17th in defensive DVOA. Since Week 7 they’ve allowed 24 or more points to every opponent except Chicago, Carolina and New York, the last two being the 30th and 31st ranked offenses in DVOA. With what is on the line, Tampa will come out inspired and fired up. At -2.5, this is close to a toss up. I’m going to take the better team at home with the division championship on the line.
Pick: Buccaneers -2.5
-Ryan Rodeman
49ers vs. Commanders
The 49ers got slapped in the face on their home field with a 33-19 loss to the Ravens. Looking at the stats, San Fransisco out-gained them by 114 yards, but the five turnovers are what cost them. Now they go from facing a Baltimore team whose +10 turnover ratio is the best to Washington's -10, which is the worst. The Commanders made a shocking decision and have elected to keep Jacoby Brissett as the quarterback over Sam Howell, although he is listed on the injury report and is questionable. The Commanders have far bigger problems than at quarterback, mainly the defense that's allowing the most yards and points per game. The 49ers have been able to smash the bad teams throughout the season, and Washington is continuing to spiral.
Pick: 49ers -13.5
-John Supowitz
Dolphins vs. Ravens
This is a fascinating game beyond just the obvious playoff ramifications. Both teams are coming off outstanding victories against arguably the top two teams in the NFC. But it’s the Ravens who made the bigger statement, taking down the 49ers on the road on Christmas night. Now, Baltimore has to quickly turn around and attempt to essentially lock up the No. 1 overall seed against a Dolphins offense that obliterated it during the 2022 season, a game that represented Miami’s coming out party. While last year’s game was a shootout, this has the makings of a more defensive struggle. I’ve loved what I’ve seen from a Dolphins defense that’s clearly picking up Vic Fangio’s scheme. Meanwhile, Baltimore’s defense remains among the league’s best. Throw in the fact that the Dolphins won’t have Jaylen Waddle, and you can count on Baltimore double teaming and bracketing Tyreek Hill all game, resulting in a lower-scoring affair.
Pick: Under 47
-Matt Barbato
Titans vs. Texans
The Texans have some ground to make up, but if they win these next two games, then they are playoff-bound. They are getting C.J. Stroud back at the right time, as he missed the last two games with a concussion, and it was against the Titans where he suffered that injury. It's been a disastrous year for Tennessee, and they are coming in dropping three of four, one of which was against the Texans. There have been a lot of inconsistencies; the defense regressed after playing well at the start of the season, and the same with the offense, especially rookie quarterback Will Levis, who hasn't been able to string along solid performances. Getting Stroud back is a huge upgrade and will bring the Texans one step closer to the playoffs.
Pick: Texans -4
-John Supwitz
Steelers vs. Seahawks
The Seahawks have been playing with fire on their path to a potential Wild Card spot in the NFC. They’ve been fortunate to score late go-ahead touchdowns in both of their last two wins. They’re hoping for a more comfortable win this week against Pittsburgh, but the Steelers will have a lot to say about that. The switch to Mason Rudolph at quarterback did wonders for an offense that was in need of a spark. 397 yards of offense and 6.8 yards per play against the Bengals defense helped erase a few poor outings the weeks prior. I’m not so sure they can repeat that kind of performance. The Seahawk defense has had their share of rough games, but the offenses they’ve played in those games have been some of the most elite. I’m not sure the Steelers are likely to repeat last weeks’ success. Seattle’s offense has had its rough weeks as well. Part of this has been Geno Smith dealing with injury and part is a DVOA rush offense ranked 20th. Against a stout Pittsburgh defense, they could be in for a long day again. Both of these offenses have had their problems all year and this matchup indicates little will change on Sunday, making this a clear under play.
Pick: Under 41
-Ryan Rodeman
Chargers vs. Broncos
Sean Payton threw a curveball into this matchup when the Broncos announced that Jarrett Stidham would be taking over as starting quarterback for the remainder of the season, while the Broncos are still very much alive in the playoff hunt, it seems as though they’re punting to next season. The Chargers, of course, are looking onto next season as well when Justin Herbert will be back under center. Clearly the books aren’t expecting much success from either offense headed into this matchup but I think there’s value because of it. The Chargers and Broncos are ranked 28th and 29th in defensive DVOA respectively. The Broncos have been especially susceptible to the run this season. This is great news for a Charger rush attack that started to find its footing against the Bills last week. For the Chargers, they allowed 6.4 yards per play last week so Stidham should be able to find some success with a strong cast of offensive weapons around him. The market is overrating these putrid defenses. Sure the offenses aren’t elite, but this number is way too low. It’s an excellent opportunity for an over.
Pick: Over 36.5
-Ryan Rodeman
Bengals vs. Chiefs
The Chiefs are going through some things that most don't expect from defending champions. They took some unexpected losses, and the culmination of it came last week with several members of the team showing their frustrations on the sideline. They still control their own destiny to an AFC West title, but it will be tough to get that first seed. The Bengals were riding a high by winning three straight with Jake Browning as the quarterback; then they took a beating by Pittsburgh 34-11. That loss hurt their playoff chances, but they still have a chance, and the good news is they should get Ja'Marr Chase back. The Chiefs are better than the Bengals and should get the win, but there is no confidence in the spread. Kansas City's defense is still playing well, and Cincy should be better after last week.
Pick: Under 44
-John Supowitz
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