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NFL Odds, Picks & Predictions: Sunday
Browns vs. Bengals
The Browns clinched a playoffs spot last week with a win over the Jets while the Bengals were eliminated after their loss to the Chiefs. Browns’ head coach Kevin Stefanski already announced many of the Cleveland starters will be sitting out and longtime NFL backup, Jeff Driskil will make his season debut at quarterback. The Bengals are eliminated but the fight they showed since Joe Burrow was injured has been impressive. With a little better injury luck, Cincinnati would likely be fighting for a playoff spot, but it’s a bit of a lost season. However, Zac Taylor is building a winner and I think this roster has the motivation to go out and clinch a winning record in front of the home fans against a division rival. It’s difficult to really preview this game because we really don’t know what to expect from Cleveland, but the Bengals should be the more motivated and the more attractive team on the spread line.
Pick: Bengals -7
-Ryan Rodeman
Vikings vs. Lions
The Minnesota Vikings quarterback merry-go-round lands once again on Nick Mullens as the Vikings still have slim odds of making the playoffs with a win and some help. The Lions meanwhile can still earn the No. 2 seed in the NFC with a win and a Dallas loss, but that feels unlikely considering the Cowboys are nearly two-touchdown favorites against Washington. Considering the unlikelihood of improving their playoff position, it'll be interesting to see Detroit's motivation for this game. You'd think Dan Campbell will have his guys ready, especially considering the disastrous end to Detroit's game last week against Dallas. But when push comes to shove, will the Lions go all out with the three-seed locked up? There's admittedly too many variables here - we haven't even talked about Mullens' propensity for turning the ball over - for me to confidently take a side. But what I will do is keep an eye out for a good live number on Minnesota, particularly in the second half. We're naïve to think Detroit won't be paying attention to the Dallas game, and I could see the Lions taking their foot off the gas as the second half progresses. My lean would be to Minnesota +3.5 if I had to play the game, and I don't mind a play on the over, as we could see Minnesota desperately trying to rally or score against Detroit's backups.
Pick: Lean Vikings +3.5 / Lean Over 45.5
-Matt Barbato
Bears vs. Packers
While only one team is playing for a playoff spot at Lambeau Field, this is a massive game for both the Bears and Packers. Chicago has been one of the hottest teams in the league to close the year (7th in DVOA), and could end the year with a triumphant win over a rival that's dominated them for years as they enter what'll surely be an important offseason. The stakes are obvious for Green Bay, win and you're in, a situation Packers fans are all too familiar with after last year's loss to Detroit in a similar spot at home. My gut tells me to lay the points with Green Bay, as I think Chicago's recent run is more a result of playing an awfully weak schedule down the stretch. Plus, Chicago has played poorly on the road this season. But I just can't trust Green Bay's defense, which has completely fallen off a cliff in the last month. This unit has given up 30 points to Bryce Young and the Panthers, 34 points to Baker Mayfield and the Buccaneers, and 24 points to a Tommy DeVito led Giants offense. And no, holding a Jaren Hall-led Vikings offense to just 10 points isn't going to change my sentiment. I do think Jordan Love and the Packers offense will get theirs against a Bears defense that's improving, but has benefitted from playing the likes of Taylor Heinicke, Joe Flacco and both Jared Goff and Kyler Murray outdoors in recent weeks. I'll go with the over in what I suspect will be a thrilling rivalry renewal.
Pick: Over 45
-Matt Barbato
Jaguars vs. Titans
As of now, there are a lot of questions for both teams. Doug Pederson has not confirmed if Trevor Lawrence will play, and if he doesn't, it'll be C.J. Beathard getting the start for a second straight game. Jacksonville has a couple of ways to get in, but if they win, they take the division. The Titans also don't know who will be behind center, as Will Levis has been limited all week. We do know that their season ends after this, and it could be the end of an era as some believe they will move on from Mike Vrabel, with Ryan Tannehill and Derrick Henry both set to be free agents. It doesn't matter who is playing quarterback for Jacksonville; it is nowhere near as good as they were last year. Much of that has to do with the defense that has regressed, but that has been due to injuries. At home, the Titans should make this close.
Pick: Titans +4
-John Supowitz
Broncos vs. Raiders
With the benching of Russell Wilson last week, the Broncos were able to get the win over an undermanned Chargers team. They’ll face the Raiders in a matchup where neither team has much to play for. After a rough start to the season, the Broncos were able to rally to an 8-8 record behind a vastly improved defense. Through three weeks, they were a historically bad defense, but they head into Week 18 at 30th in DVOA defense. The Raider offense has been putrid all season long. Outside of a huge outburst against the Chargers that included multiple defensive touchdowns, the Raiders have managed only 16.6 points per game since Aidan O’Connell took over the starting job. For Denver, with Jarrett Stidham at quarterback, they only managed to score 16 against a pretty awful Charger defense. Neither of these offenses inspires confidence in me, and both defenses are actually fairly stout. In a late-season divisional game, I’m going with the under.
Pick: Under 37
-Ryan Rodeman
Jets vs. Patriots
This game technically means nothing for either team, but there's a lot more on the line beyond the postseason. New England will put its 15-game winning streak against the Jets on the line at Gillette Stadium in what could be the final game of Bill Belichick's storied tenure with the franchise. Meanwhile, the Jets will look to end a dismal year on a positive note by overcoming a rival that's beaten them for eight straight years. The Jets have more talent on both sides of the ball, but I suspect their defense is checked out for the year after allowing 37 points to Joe Flacco and the Browns the last time we saw them. Picking a side in a QB battle featuring Bailey Zappe and Trevor Siemian is like trying to choose between broccoli and brussel sprouts, but I see Belichick getting sent off with a win here. However, the play I like more is on the total, which is comically low at 30.5 points. Not only is this a pathetic quarterback matchup, but weather will likely play a role, as accumulating snow plus winds gusting to 25 MPH are forecasted for Sunday. I could see this being a Patriots 7-0 win, which would be a fitting conclusion to the Belichick era.
Pick: Under 30.5
-Matt Barbato
Falcons vs. Saints
This game could have major implications for both of these teams. If the Buccaneers fall to the Panthers, the winner of this game will clinch the NFC South title. The Saints can still make the playoffs with a win and a Tampa win, but will need Seattle and Green Bay losses or ties. The Saints have underperformed all season, but may be playing some of their best ball all year. They’ve won three of four including a win over the Buccaneers last week to keep the division race alive. Meanwhile the Falcons have been sputtering down the stretch, losing three of four including losses to Carolina and Chicago. The main reason for the woes is the offense. It ranks 26th in DVOA and Arthur Smith keeps going back and forth on his quarterback which is making things look more disjointed. The Saints’ defense isn’t as elite as in past years, but they rank 11th in pass defense DVOA and should shut down the Falcons. At home in the Superdome, the Saints should have a big advantage and with a lot on the line, I like the Saints.
Pick: Saints -3
-Ryan Rodeman
Eagles vs. Giants
Despite how bad Philadelphia has been lately, they still could host a playoff game. First, the Cowboys need to lose, and the Eagles need to beat the Giants, which they have done very easily over the last couple of years. There is something to think about as head coach Nick Sirianni said that if he sees the Cowboys running away with their game, he has no problem sitting his starters. The Giants have been in the tank the last couple of weeks, dropping three straight, including to Philly. Neither side of the ball has been good this year, and rumors of friction between HC Brian Daboll and his two coordinators have spilled over to the on-field product. The total has been set at 41.5 as it'll be cold and wet throughout the game, and the possibility of the Eagles packing it in is a factor.
Pick: Under 42
-John Supowitz
Seahawks vs. Cardinals
After a great start to the season, the Seahawks have stumbled down the stretch, going 2-5. Their playoff dreams aren't dashed, but they need some help; they must win or tie, but Green Bay must lose. The team has dealt with injuries, including DK Metcalf who played with a back injury last week, and Kenneth Walker is questionable. The Cardinals pulled off the impressive upset in Philadelphia, and overall they have looked better with Kyler Murray as quarterback. Look for the Seahawks to emphasize the ground attack. Even with the questionable tag, Walker will likely play, and the Cardinals have allowed the most rushing yards per game this season. Seattle's run defense isn't better, as they've allowed the third-most. This should open things up for both quarterbacks, so don't be surprised if we see the score run up.
Pick: Over 47.5
-John Supowitz
Chiefs vs. Chargers
The Chiefs already have the three-seed locked up, so you'll see the B-Squad as Andy Reid will be sitting his key players before their first-round Wild Card Round matchup. Blaine Gabbert is a high-tier backup, so this won't be just a rollover for Kansas City. Especially against the Chargers with an atrocious defense that's allowing the third-most passing yards per game. They were barely clinging on to a possible playoff spot, but it was over when Justin Herbert went down. Easton Stick has not been good, with three touchdowns in four games, and all three coming against the Raiders, who were blowing them out early. Even with Kansas City team of backups, they should come out on top.
Pick: Chiefs +3.5
-John Supowitz
Rams vs. 49ers
We're getting a matchup between Sam Darnold and Carson Wentz in Week 18. Who would've thought? Both teams will have key starters on the bench for this matchup. But overall, Darnold's opportunity at quarterback is greater. Wentz's career is almost over. However, Darnold still wants to be a No. 1 quarterback at just 26 years old. This is a big one for Darnold, who likely has more depth on his side than Wentz does. I know Wentz is just 31 years old, but his time in the NFL is pretty much finished. That's why it took him so long to even land on a roster this year. Based on the depth of the Niners and Rams, I'll rock with San Francisco at -4.
Pick: 49ers -4
-Jason Radowitz
Cowboys vs. Commanders
The Dallas Cowboys will clinch the NFC East with a win over the Washington Commanders. Therefore, there's no thought about benching starters for this game. The Cowboys will blitz the Commanders right from the opening kickoff. Washington's defense is the worst in the NFL, allowing 259.25 yards in the air and another 126.5 yards on the ground per game this season. Dak Prescott had a career year with Dallas and has added 4,237 yards passing with 32 touchdowns and only eight interceptions. He's also thrown 122 receptions to CeeDee Lamb, who has 1,651 yards receiving and ten touchdowns. Those two should connect at a crazy level against the Commanders. Let's grab the Cowboys as road favorites at -13.
Pick: Cowboys -13
-Jason Radowitz
Buccaneers vs. Panthers
I know many NFL fans are calling for a trap game between the Buccaneers and Panthers. All the Buccaneers need to do is beat the Panthers on the road to clinch the NFC South. Meanwhile, Carolina's first-round pick won't even be there this year after trading it away for Bryce Young last year. There's no incentive to lose for the Panthers. We saw a major upset from the Texans last year in Week 18, so now many believe that can happen this year. On top of that, Tampa Bay looked flat until the final minutes against the Saints last week when they could've locked up the division. But overall, the pass rush should get good enough to hold Young from having a massive game. I think the Buccaneers will also be more aggressive down the field early. They didn't take as many shots down the field until late in the game against New Orleans and likely regret that. I'll stick with the Buccaneers at -4.5.
Pick: Buccaneers -4.5
-Jason Radowitz
Bills vs. Dolphins
We couldn’t have asked for a better matchup to close out the regular season. The Bills and Dolphins will battle for the AFC East crown, with Buffalo potentially needing a win to clinch a playoff spot altogether. Buffalo’s resurgence has been predicated on greater emphasis on the running game, something I’ve said the Bills have needed for a couple of years. Not only has a more balanced attack kept opponents guessing more often, it’s also protected Josh Allen from himself, which means he’s reduced his mistakes and his propensity for being the hero. Ultimately, I like the matchup here for Buffalo against a banged up Miami offense that could be without Jaylen Waddle and several starters along the offensive line. The Bills can generate pressure without blitzing (6th in pressure rate, 19th in blitz rate) and have enough talent in the back end with the addition of Rasual Douglas to contain Tyreek Hill and force Tua Tagovailoa to throw elsewhere outside the hash marks, where he tends to struggle. The Bills are healthier and in better form as of late, even with some close for comfort wins over the Chargers and Patriots. Unlike those two games where Buffalo might’ve been looking ahead, I’m not worried about their focus in this one.
Pick: Buffalo -2.5
-Matt Barbato
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