Here is my breakdown for Bears vs. Packers along with my top predictions and top picks.
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Matthew Freedman’s NFL Week 2 Picks & Predictions
Chicago Bears at Green Bay Packers
Check out our Bears at Packers matchup page.
- Kickoff: Sunday, Sept. 18, 2022, 8:20 pm ET
- Location: Lambeau Field
- TV: NBC
Bears at Packers: Consensus Lines
- Spread: Packers -10
- Over/Under: 42.5
- Moneyline: Packers -475, Bears +360
Bears at Packers: Betting Percentages
Data from Action Network and as of Sept. 14.
- Spread: Packers - 37% bets, 74% money
- Over/Under: Under - 50% bets, 91% money
- Moneyline: Bears - 61% bets, 68% money
Bears at Packers: Key Injuries
Chicago Bears Injuries
- CB Tavon Young (leg, IR): OUT
- G Dakota Dozier (knee, IR): OUT
- OT Alex Leatherwood (illness, PUP): OUT
- WR N’Keal Harry (ankle, IR): OUT
- WR Velus Jones (hamstring): LP on Wed.
- OT Riley Reiff (shoulder): LP on Wed.
- Falcons Injury News
Green Bay Packers Injuries
- LB Krys Barnes (ankle, IR): OUT
- LG Jon Ruynan (concussion): DNP on Wed.
- LT David Bakhtiari (knee): LP on Wed.
- RT Elgton Jenkins (knee): LP on Wed.
- WR Allen Lazard (ankle): LP on Wed.
- Packers Injury News
Bears at Packers: Notable Trends
Data from Action Network and goes back to 2003. Abbreviations: Against the spread (ATS), return on investment (ROI), moneyline (ML).
Chicago Bears Trends
- QB Justin Fields: 4-7 ATS (23.1% ROI for faders) overall
- QB Justin Fields: 3-7 ATS (35.4% ROI for faders) as underdog
- QB Justin Fields: 0-2 ATS (92.2% ROI for faders) vs. Packers
Green Bay Packers Trends
- QB Aaron Rodgers: 65-34-4 ATS (27.1% ROI) at home
- QB Aaron Rodgers: 48-30 ATS (20.4% ROI) in division
- QB Aaron Rodgers: 26-12 ATS (33.6% ROI) at home in division
- QB Aaron Rodgers: 20-7 ATS (44.8% ROI) vs. Bears
- QB Aaron Rodgers: 38-27-2 ATS (13.2% ROI) in primetime
- Teams With Back-to-Back Divisional Games: 32-18-2 ATS (25.4% ROI) in Week 2
- Teams With Back-to-Back Divisional Games: 17-4-1 ATS (58.9% ROI) in Week 2 off a loss
Bears at Packers: Key Statistics
Advanced data from RBs Don't Matter and Football Outsiders. Basic stats from Pro Football Reference. Regular season only. Abbreviations: Expected Points Added (EPA), Success Rate (SR), Defense-Adjusted Value Over Average (DVOA).
Bears Offense vs. Packers Defense: 2022
| Metric | Offense | Rank | Defense | Rank | Offense Edge |
| EPA per Play | -0.004 | 22 | 0.096 | 26 | 4 |
| Total SR | 32.7% | 32 | 41.9% | 11 | -21 |
| Total DVOA | -14.8% | 25 | 25.3% | 31 | 6 |
Bears Offense vs. Packers Defense: 2021
| Metric | Offense | Rank | Defense | Rank | Offense Edge |
| EPA per Play | -0.087 | 29 | 0.02 | 19 | -10 |
| Total SR | 41.4% | 26 | 46.6% | 26 | 0 |
| Total DVOA | -13.6% | 26 | 3.6% | 22 | -4 |
Chicago Bears Quarterback Statistics
Data from RBs Don't Matter, Pro Football Reference, ESPN and NFElo. Abbreviations: Completion Percentage Over Expectation (CPOE), Adjusted Yards per Attempt (AY/A), Adjusted Total Quarterback Rating (QBR), Quarterback Elo Value (QB Elo). 2022 data: Min. 20 plays for EPA + CPOE & Air Yards. Min. 14 pass attempts per scheduled game for AY/A. Min. 20 action plays per game for QBR. 2021 data: Min. 200 plays for EPA + CPOE & Air Yards. Min. 14 pass attempts per scheduled game for AY/A. Min. 20 action plays per game for QBR.
2022: Justin Fields
- EPA + CPOE: 0.011 (No. 28)
- AY/A: 6.8 (No. 18)
- QBR: 42.1 (No. 22)
- ATS Value vs. Average: -1.8 (No. 31)
2021: Justin Fields
- EPA + CPOE: 0.014 (No. 34)
- AY/A: 5.8 (No. 28)
- QBR: 31.4 (No. 31)
- ATS Value vs. Average: -2.3 (No. 41)
Career: Justin Fields
- AY/A: 5.8
- QB Elo per Game: -100.5
Packers Offense vs. Bears Defense: 2022
| Metric | Offense | Rank | Defense | Rank | Offense Edge |
| EPA per Play | -0.192 | 29 | -0.19 | 5 | -24 |
| Total SR | 45.8% | 13 | 40.6% | 10 | -3 |
| Total DVOA | 9.7% | 14 | -17.0% | 7 | -7 |
Packers Offense vs. Bears Defense: 2021
| Metric | Offense | Rank | Defense | Rank | Offense Edge |
| EPA per Play | 0.136 | 3 | 0.032 | 22 | 19 |
| Total SR | 48.9% | 3 | 44.5% | 15 | 12 |
| Total DVOA | 20.2% | 2 | -0.9% | 13 | 11 |
Green Bay Packers Quarterback Statistics
2022: Aaron Rodgers
- EPA + CPOE: 0.013 (No. 27)
- AY/A: 4.4 (No. 29)
- QBR: 16.1 (No. 29)
- ATS Value vs. Average: 2.8 (No. 5)
2021: Aaron Rodgers
- EPA + CPOE: 0.176 (No. 1)
- AY/A: 8.8 (No. 2)
- QBR: 74.1 (No. 1)
- ATS Value vs. Average: 4.1 (No. 2)
Career: Aaron Rodgers
- AY/A: 8.4
- QB Elo per Game: 82.0
Key Matchup: QB Aaron Rodgers vs. Bears Secondary
The Packers scored only seven points in Week 1, and Rodgers looked horrible with 22-of-34 for 195-0-1 passing, but the Packers were without LT David Bakhtiari (knee), RT Elgton Jenkins (knee) and No. 1 WR Allen Lazard (ankle), all of whom practiced on Wednesday and have a chance to return in Week 2.
The Packers suffered an embarrassing 38-3 road loss to the Saints in Week 1 last year — and then they went 13-3 the rest of the way and captured the No. 1 seed as Rodgers won his second straight MVP. The Packers are at Lambeau Field, plus ...
Aaron Rodgers screaming "I still own you" at Bears fans is pretty badass pic.twitter.com/nEdPLjpuzN
— Jomboy Media (@JomboyMedia) October 17, 2021
... they’re facing the Bears.
I don’t think there’s a question as to whether Rodgers will bounce back in this game. The question is how big the bounceback will be.
The Bears enjoyed a great, weather-aided 19-10 victory as home underdogs to the 49ers last week, holding QB Trey Lance to 13-of-28 for 164-0-1 passing.
But that’s Lance — not Rodgers — and that happened in the pouring rain.
In our FantasyPros power rankings, Rodgers has a clear edge over the Bears defense in general and secondary in particular, both of which are bottom-four units.
| Rank | Quarterback | Offense | Opp Defense | Defense Rank | Secondary Rank | QB-Def Edge | QB-Sec Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | Aaron Rodgers | GB | CHI | 30 | 29 | 23 | 22 |
The Bears specifically have two rookies starting in their secondary: SCB Kyler Gordon and SS Jaquan Brisker.
I expect to see Rodgers attack them heavily with Lazard and TE Robert Tonyan — perhaps his two most-trusted pass catchers.
Bet: Packers -10 (-105, DraftKings)
First Recommended: Packers -9.5 (-110)
Personal Projection: Packers -10.25
Limit: Packers -10
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