In Week 4 of the NFL season, we have our first “early rise” NFL game: the Indianapolis Colts and Washington Commanders face off in England at Tottenham Hotspur Stadium, with kickoff slated for 9:30 am ET.
The Commanders are coming off a shocking win over the defending Super Bowl champion Seattle Seahawks, while the Colts squeaked out a 19-17 win over the now 0-3 Houston Texans.
One of the most exciting ways to wager on NFL games is touchdowns, including anytime touchdowns and first-touchdown scorers.
Below are my three picks for this game, including two in the anytime touchdown category.
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NFL International Series Same Game Parlay: Colts vs. Commanders
(Odds Courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook)
Tyler Warren Anytime TD (+160)
Through three weeks, Warren is second on the Colts in target share at 23.4%, trailing only Josh Downs (25.5%). As for touchdowns, Warren leads the team, though it is only two receiving touchdowns.
He didn’t score in Week 3, but he caught nine passes on 10 targets for 55 yards. His two touchdowns came in Weeks 1 and 2.
Taking on the Commanders, Warren will face a defense that’s allowed five touchdowns to tight ends, including two or more in two games. They allowed a touchdown to Seahawks backup tight end Eric Saubert last week and two to Dallas Goedert (Philadelphia Eagles) and Jake Ferguson (Dallas Cowboys).
Warren is in a great spot to score.
Jacory Croskey-Merritt First TD (+700)
Picking the first touchdown scorer is never an easy task, but my strategy is to pick players who should see the ball early and often, such as Croskey-Merritt.
This season, Croskey-Merritt has handled 60.3% of the running back carries. Behind him has been Rachaad White at 28.2%. However, White got injured in Week 3 and is receiving treatment for a shoulder injury. Now, his status for Week 4 is up in the air, especially with this being an international game.
If he’s ruled out, we’ll see more of rookie Kaytron Allen, but Croskey-Merritt’s workload will be larger.
He’s also facing a Colts defense that’s allowed four rushing touchdowns this season, including one in Week 3 to Texans running back Woody Marks.
At +700, this has good upside.
Stefon Diggs Anytime TD (+270)
Finally, for my last touchdown pick, I’ll go with Diggs.
With Marcus Mariota as the Commanders quarterback this season, Diggs has seen a 20.8% target share, catching six passes on 10 targets for 58 yards and a touchdown. Of course, he has to compete with Terry McLaurin for targets, but in this matchup, McLaurin will likely be tied up with Colts cornerback Sauce Gardner, who’s allowed just five catches all season and no touchdowns.
As for Diggs, he’ll play out of the slot primarily and be matched up with Colts slot cornerback Justin Walley. He’s allowed two touchdowns this season and a catch rate of 86.7%.
