NFL Week 4 Player Prop Bets Picks & Predictions (2022)

Check out a few of our favorite player prop bet odds, picks, and predictions for NFL Week 4 action.

NFL Week 4 Player Prop Bets Picks & Predictions (2022)

Kirk Cousins UNDER 259.5 passing yards

Let's start with an early-morning bet to track in the London game while we enjoy a full English breakfast. (Blood pudding is highly underrated, but hold the tomato that comes with that full English breakfast, please.) I'll set aside my subjective opinion that Cousins isn't very good and just stick with the numbers. Cousins is averaging 252.7 yards per game, though he's cleared this number in two of three games. But the opponent is the key to this bet. The Saints have been a run funnel this season, with opponents running the ball on 50.8% of their offensive snaps. The Saints are allowing 191.7 passing yards per game and just 6.3 yards per pass attempt. It's possible RB Dalvin Cook's shoulder injury incentivizes the Vikings to throw more, but it's also possible that Saints QB Jameis Winston misses this game with a back injury, and it's highly unlikely the Vikings would need to get into a shootout if they're facing Saints backup Andy Dalton.

Josh Allen OVER 284.5 passing yards

After winning an over bet on Josh Allen passing yardage last week, let's go right back to the well. This one seems too easy, quite frankly. Allen threw for 400 yards against the Dolphins last week, although that was largely because the Bills ran 92 plays on offense, most of them while trailing. Still Allen hasn't thrown for fewer than 297 yards in any of his three starts this season. The Bills won two of those games comfortably, so it's not as if Allen has benefitted from pass-friendly game scripts every week. Now, he's facing a pass-funnel Baltimore defense. Opponents have thrown against the Ravens on a league-high 70.1% of their offensive snaps. The Ravens have given up 366.3 passing yards per game. Even if you discount Tua Tagovailoa's 461-yard day against them, the Ravens have allowed 297 and 302 passing yards in their other two games.

Christian Kirk OVER 59.5 receiving yards

Dare we say that Christian Kirk is worth the four-year, $72 million contract he signed with the Jaguars in the offseason? He's been terrific so far, with 18 catches for 267 yards and three touchdowns. He's had six receptions in all three of his games so far. He's averaging 9.0 targets and 89.0 receiving yards per game, and he's 3-for-3 in clearing this number this year. Kirk has been lined up in the slot for a majority of his snaps, and when he's lined up in the slot against the Eagles on Sunday, he'll avoid the coverage of the Eagles' two fine outside cornerbacks, Darius Slay and James Bradberry.

Breece Hall OVER 38.5 Rushing Yards

The tide might be shifting in the Jets’ backfield. According to FantasyPros, Breece Hall played 51% of New York’s snaps in Week 3, and Michael Carter was behind him at a 49% snap share.

In addition, Hall has been highly efficient on the ground. He’s averaged an eye-catching 5.3 yards per carry while rumbling for 112 yards on only 21 carries. Additionally, per Pro Football Focus (PFF), Hall is seventh out of 51 running backs with at least 15 rush attempts this year with 4.00 Yards After Contact per Attempt (YCO/A).

Hall has also had four runs for 10-plus yards on his modest workload. And even in a part-time role, he’s had more than 38.5 rushing yards in his last two games, rushing for 50 in Week 2 and 39 in Week 3. So, if Hall’s role doesn’t change, he can go over his yardage prop. And if he steals more work from Carter, he should obliterate his prop.

The matchup is also ideal this week. According to Football Outsiders, the Steelers are 17th in rush defense Defense-Adjusted Value Over Average (DVOA). PFF also ranks Pittsburgh 16th in rush defense. In addition, according to Pro-Football-Reference, the Steelers have yielded the fourth-most rushing yards to running backs this year.

The game script should also help Hall and Gang Green’s rushing attack. The Steelers are only 3.5-point favorites. So, the game should be close and in a neutral game script, allowing the Jets to pound the rock to their heart’s content. Finally, FantasyPros projects Hall to run for 44.0 yards, putting him over his line of 38.5 yards.

Rashaad Penny OVER 60.5 Rushing Yards

Unfortunately, Penny hasn’t carried his moment from an explosive finish to 2021 to 2022. Still, he’s healthy, heading Seattle’s backfield and has a mouthwatering matchup this week.

Kenneth Walker made his debut in Week 2, but Penny sits atop the depth chart. Penny has handled 20 of 33 backfield carries in the last two weeks. Penny also played a whopping 69% of Seattle’s snaps last week in a competitive game.

Further, the Seahawks played faster and ran more plays last week, allowing Penny to rush for 66 yards on 14 attempts. Again, the newfound pace is excellent for Penny’s outlook this week. And again, the matchup is superb.

The Lions are 24th in rush defense DVOA and 30th in PFF run-defense grade. Detroit has also been gashed for 4.56 yards per carry by running backs this season. Additionally, the Lions are only 3.5-point favorites. Further, they might struggle mightily on offense without Amon-Ra St. Brown and D’Andre Swift. So, the Seahawks should be in a neutral or good game script this week, allowing them to feed Penny.

The FantasyPros projection algorithm is encouraged by Penny’s outlook, projecting him for 66.7 rushing yards. So, gamblers should feel good about betting on Penny to rush for more than 60.5 yards against the Lions this week.

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