The epic 2025-26 Stanley Cup Final resumes on Thursday night, and it's now a best-of-three series between the Vegas Golden Knights (2-2) and the Carolina Hurricanes (2-2). The Hurricanes notched a 5-3 victory in Game 4, knotting up the series at two games apiece. Carolina is a -145 favorite to win the Stanley Cup, while Vegas is a +120 underdog. Below, I'll dive into all of the need-to-know stats and trends for Game 5, while laying out my top NHL Stanley Cup Final picks on the ice tonight. Puck drop is scheduled for 8:00 p.m. ET from the Lenovo Center in Raleigh, NC.
Thursday’s Best NHL Stanley Cup Final Picks
(Odds courtesy of BetMGM)
Vegas Golden Knights (+135) vs. Carolina Hurricanes (-160) | O/U 6.0 (-118/-102)
Carolina enters Game 5 as a sizable -160 Moneyline favorite, and this is roughly on par with their Moneyline prices from Games 1 (-160) and 2 (-170). Vegas is a +135 underdog in Thursday's contest. The total is hovering in the 6.0-to-6.5 range, so make sure to shop around to find a favorable number.
On that note, I'm going to play the over while there are still six totals available. There are no signs suggesting that the scoring will stop anytime soon in this series. The first four games have all seen at least seven goals, with the average contest producing 8.3 combined goals.
Going back even further in the head-to-head category, the regular-season matchups both went to Vegas, with scores of 4-1 and 6-3, more recently. These teams are lighting the lamp consistently against one another.
The Golden Knights remain the best offense in the Stanley Cup playoffs, scoring 3.47 goals per 60 minutes. The Hurricanes are seventh on the list, netting 3.15 goals per 60 minutes. The teams rank first (81) and second (74), respectively, in high-danger shots on goal in the postseason.
It's also worth pointing out that Carter Hart's rough series continues. After shining through the first three rounds, the 27-year-old netminder has conceded four goals in each of the first four Stanley Cup games. He's the first goalie ever to allow four or more goals in the opening four games in Stanley Cup history.
On the flip side, Brandon Bussi will likely be between the pipes again on Thursday, and while he picked up the win in Game 4, it wasn't a dazzling performance. He posted a .857 SV%, making 18 saves on only 21 shots on goal. His regular-season SV% was a mediocre .895 SV%, suggesting that a simple high volume of shots from Vegas could lead to goals.
I'm jumping on the over at this favorable number of six goals. I think we get at least one more barnburner before things tighten up in the later games of the series. Give me the over.
Bet: Over 6.0 Goals (-118)
