It is a bit of a disappointment from an MLB home run props perspective that there are no games being played in Las Vegas Ballpark today amid Thursday’s eight-game slate, especially since the Athletics alone belted 15 home runs in the three-game series against the Brewers.
One of my three top MLB home run picks, however, does take ballparks into consideration when I back a Cubs slugger at Coors Field. After that, I add a chalkier pick with one of baseball’s top home run sluggers, as well as a Mariners player who has not only carried the lineup of late, but who also has success against today’s opposing starting pitcher.
Read on for my top MLB home run bets for Thursday.
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Thursday’s Best MLB Home Run Props
(Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook)
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Seiya Suzuki (+407)
Entering Tuesday’s series opener against the Rockies, the Cubs’ starting lineup combined for a .312/.388/.569 slash line and 17 home runs in 403 career plate appearances at Coors Field.
Ryan Feltner has been arguably Colorado’s best pitcher at home, with a 3.24 ERA and .209 opponents’ batting average in five home starts. He has been roughed up by right-handed batters with a .901 OPS allowed, and three of his five home runs have come from that split.
Given all of those trends, Seiya Suzuki makes for the best value play to go yard. Especially since two of his last six hits prior to yesterday were home runs, and he has a 1.095 OPS over the previous seven days.
Shohei Ohtani (+245)
Shohei Ohtani has four hits in 11 career at-bats off of Mitch Keller, and all four went for extra bases. That includes two home runs, which helped balloon his 1.182 slugging rate and 1.598 OPS in those head-to-head encounters.
Keller’s combination of a groundball rate in the 38th percentile, an 18th-percentile whiff rate and an 11th-percentile xBA is a big reason his 4.53xERA and actual 4.81 ERA are closely aligned. He has allowed an xSLG of .434 or higher on three of his four primary pitches, including a 157-point difference between his actual slugging rate and xSLG on his fastball.
Ohtani has multi-hit games in five out of eight games so far in June and in seven of his last 11, during which his batting average has jumped 20 points. It’s only a matter of time before the plethora of base hits turn into home runs, and he adds to his total of two so far this month.
Randy Arozarena (+531)
Much like Shohei Ohtani, Randy Arozarena has had success from a power standpoint against today’s opposing pitcher. Arozarena has taken Kyle Bradish deep twice in 18 at-bats. That provides optimism for him to homer again today, even if he only has four hits total in the head-to-head encounters with the righty.
The trio of Julio Rodriguez, Josh Naylor and Arozarena has done wonders in keeping the offense clicking amid all its other injuries. Arozarena entered the week pummeling fastballs against right-handed pitching, with a 20% barrel rate, 50% fly-ball rate, 30% line-drive rate and 60% hard-hit rate in his last 10 at-bats against fastballs in that split.
Randy Arozarena go-ahead homer in the 10th! pic.twitter.com/FdFFOkFCwy
— MLB (@MLB) June 10, 2026
Arozarena is well deserving of an All-Star nod. After Tuesday’s extra-inning heroics, he was on pace for 178 hits this season, which would far surpass his previous career-high of 154 set in 2022.
Mike Spector is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Mike, check out his archive and follow him @MikeSpector01.