The Marlins have dominated the Diamondbacks through two games of their series. Will the Miami offense stay hot, and is there an opportunity for Arizona to score some runs today as well? Meanwhile, I explain why the Cardinals are being undervalued against the Mets and why the Cubs and Rockies should finally have the offensive explosion oddsmakers have been expecting all series. Here are my top MLB picks for Thursday, June 11th.
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Thursday’s Best MLB Picks & Predictions
(Odds provided by DraftKings Sportsbook)
Arizona Diamondbacks at Miami Marlins
Diamondbacks' starter Merrill Kelly provides an incredible matchup for Marlins hitters. He has a 5.71 ERA and a 1.49 WHIP, and he just allowed seven earned runs and three home runs in five innings in his last start. Kelly has allowed multiple runs in eight of his 10 starts this season, allowing five or more four different times.
Additionally, Kelly has terrible numbers against the Marlins. Miami hitters are batting .341 against him with seven extra-base hits and seven RBI in just 41 at-bats. While I could take the Marlins to score more than 3.5 runs, the price for that team total is north of -150 at every major sportsbook.
Therefore, I'll take the over for the game, as the Diamondbacks have a pretty good matchup as well. While this offense has scored one or fewer runs in three of its last four games, there is an opportunity to do some damage against Tyler Phillips, a pitcher who has allowed three earned runs in back-to-back starts.
Phillips doesn't have much experience against the Diamondbacks, but considering Arizona still ranks near the top half of the league in total runs, I'll back them to take advantage of a struggling pitcher.
Pick: Over 8.5 Runs (-110)
St. Louis Cardinals at New York Mets
I know the Cardinals are on the road and about to face Christian Scott, a pitcher who has performed very well of late. But I can't help but love them as underdogs in this game.
The Cardinals have won six consecutive games, scoring at least five runs in all of those contests. Not only have they beaten the Mets twice in a row, but they've also destroyed them, outscoring New York 16-2 over the last two games.
Hunter Dobbins takes the mound for the Cardinals today, and he's progressively gotten better with each start this season. In his first start, he allowed three runs. Since then, he's allowed just one run in 8.2 innings. In his last start, he threw five scoreless innings, allowing just four hits.
If there were an obvious pitching advantage for the Mets, or if Dobbins entered this game struggling, perhaps I'd be more inclined to take them to win. But as it stands, the Cardinals are the hotter team, and the Mets are struggling offensively.
Pick: Cardinals Moneyline (+119)
Chicago Cubs at Colorado Rockies
After the Rockies won 3-2 last night, I expect the price for this over to drop before first pitch. However, I'm still happy to take it at this price because of who is pitching.
Cubs starter Edward Cabrera has struggled in recent starts. In his last start, he allowed eight earned runs in just 3.2 innings. He's now allowed at least three earned runs in eight of his last nine starts.
Cabrera has solid numbers against the Rockies, but he also has a very limited history against them. Based on how he's currently pitching, it's hard to trust him, especially in a hitter-friendly ballpark like Coors Field.
Rockies starter Ryan Feltner has been significantly better than Cabrera, but he's still had a few rough outings. While he's allowed just one earned run in his last two starts, he's given up multiple runs in four of his last six starts, and at least four in two games.
With the Cubs' offense just outside of the top 10 in scoring, this is the type of matchup where they could break out of their current slump.
Pick: Over 11.0 Runs (-118)
Phil Wood is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Phil, check out his archive and follow him @Phil_Wood_Jr.