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PGA Betting Picks and Guide: The BMW Championship (2021)

by August 24, 2021
Bryson DeChambeau

The second round of the 2021 PGA Tour Playoffs is here, and we head to a never-before-seen course for what should be another great weekend of golf. As per the playoff format, the field has been cut down to the top 70 golfers following The Northern Trust and will feature no cut as it’s trimmed down to 30 heading into next week’s Tour Championship.

With zero course history and the 70 best players in the world all motivated, let’s take a closer look at this week’s event and see where the value remains.

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Previous Winners of The BMW Championship

  • 2020: John Rahm
  • 2019: Justin Thomas
  • 2018: Keegan Bradley
  • 2017: Marc Leishman

Course Preview (Caves Valley Golf Club)

Located just outside Baltimore in Owing Mills, MD, Caves Valley Golf club will play longer than the typical course on Tour, coming in at 7,542 yards. While it’s hosted several LPGA and Senior events, this will be the Tour’s first stop here as they usually like to switch it up on the second week of the playoffs.

The more we learn about the course, the more distance is looking to play a major factor as there are driveable par 4s and a few par 5s that the longest guys on Tour should be able to reach. Hazards also come into play more often for those not long off the tee.

As for the greens, they come in as the 12th smallest on Tour and feature Bentgrass.

Relevant Betting Stats

  • Driving Distance
  • Par 4 Efficiency: 350-400 Yards
  • SG: Approach
  • Approach: 200+ yards

Outright PGA Betting Picks

Bryson DeChambeau (+2600 on DraftKings Sportsbook)

It’s hard to look and read about a course designed for bombers to go low and not play DeChambeau by default. An even closer look, however, has me even more keyed in.

In addition to being the longest driver on Tour (321.7), DeChambeau is also #1 in the world in SG: Off-The-Tee which will play well here with his approach shots regularly being shorter than the rest of the field. With some of the smallest greens on Tour, this should play especially well for the heavy hitter.

Speaking of greens, while his putting has been improving this season, it’s been especially strong on Bentgrass as he comes into this week inside the top 10 in the field over his last 50 rounds.

Currently ranked inside the coveted top 10 of the FedEx Cup rankings, DeChambeau would start the Tour Championship at -4 if it were to start today but would move that to -10 with a win here at Caves Valley. If he can get the wedges going early, I like his chances to do just that.

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Johnny Perun is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Johnny, check out his archive and follow him @JohnnyCovers.