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Pittsburgh Panthers vs. Duke Blue Devils Odds & Game Pick (2021)

by November 3, 2021
Kenny Pickett

Last week, the Pittsburgh Panthers lost a hard-fought battle to Miami at home, 38-34, and will look to get back on track against the Duke Blue Devils. The Panthers really couldn’t have asked for better timing to go up against one of the lower-tier teams in the conference.

Pittsburgh had been ranked up until their loss to Miami, but at 6-2, there’s always a chance for Pittsburgh to get ranked again in the AP Poll. They’re still competing for a chance at the ACC Championship.

On the other hand, Duke has scored seven or fewer points in three of their last four games and has lost all four games by giving up 31 points or more. In addition, it’s been embarrassing for Duke this season as they’ve allowed nearly 500 yards of offense.

It’s not a question of whether Pittsburgh will win this game. It’s a question of how much they will win by. So here’s our prediction for the ACC matchup between Duke and Pittsburgh.

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Details

  • Opening Line: Pittsburgh -20.5, O/U 64.5
  • Current Line: Pittsburgh -21, O/U 65.5
  • Last meeting: October 5, 2019, Pittsburgh 33, Duke 30

Overview 

The ACC has some highly efficient offenses this year.

Duke has recognized this as they’ve allowed 33.3 points per game and 473.8 yards per game. They gave up 45 to Wake Forest, allowed Virginia to score 48, and allowed Georgia Tech and North Carolina to score above 30 points. They even let Kansas score 33 points in their win.

Pittsburgh should have no problem scoring the football against Duke, as they average 43.9 points per game and 531.5 yards per game on the offensive end. In addition, the entire offense has the playmaking ability to help out Kenny Pickett, who has thrown for 26 touchdowns and just three interceptions all year long.

Pickett was a notable quarterback coming into the season, but the talk in the ACC wasn’t about him. It was more on Sam Hartman, Sam Howell, and other players that have since become afterthoughts. Pickett has dominated and continues to showcase his skill. He’ll get to go up against a Duke squad that has had trouble defending in coverage. Duke has missed plenty of tackles, and that will surely help Pickett’s stats as his receivers break tackles down the field.

On the other hand, the Blue Devils are averaging 24.5 points per game with 451.9 yards per game. They’re not a terrible offense, but with 451.9 yards per game, they should be scoring more points. In addition, Pittsburgh has a terrific rushing defense that has allowed 103.6 yards per game. Therefore, if Duke wants to make progress on offense, the passing game will have to be exceptional.

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Trends 

  • Panthers are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games as a road favorite.
  • Blue Devils are 0-7 ATS in their last 7 games after allowing more than 40 points in their previous game.
  • Over is 4-0-1 in Blue Devils last 5 games in November.

Bottom Line 

All in all, Duke isn’t nearly as bad as the box score shows. They’re just not capitalizing and making the most out of their offense. The team should be scoring more points as they move the ball down the field effectively.

Against Pittsburgh, there’s reason to think Duke can get the ball down the field through the air. However, the run game will lag, which will mean more passing in this game for Duke.

We know Pittsburgh will get there’s and nobody would be shocked if the Panthers scored around 52 points in this one. So, therefore, I’ll trust Duke to score three touchdowns in this game and take the over 64. Duke’s offense, at home, should start to succeed a little bit more than they have finally.

Pick: Over 64 (-110)

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Jason Radowitz is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Jason, check out his archive and follow him @Jason_Radowitz.

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