Manchester City left a couple of points on the field in its recent 3-3 road draw against Everton, and the ripple effect in the betting market has seen Arsenal shoot out to -425 favorites to win the Premier League title. Only a handful of matches remain this season, and it's starting to look like the Gunners have the trophy within their grasp.
We have a full slate of games across England this weekend, providing us with a myriad of ways to get in on the action. Below, I'll break down three of the matches from a sports betting angle and let you know where I'm laying my money on the pitch. Here are my top Premier League bets for Matchday 36.
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Premier League Matchday 36 Preview & Best Bets (2026)
(Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook)
Manchester City (-290) vs. Brentford (+650), DRAW (+475) | O/U 3.5 (-105/-125)
Pep Guardiola and Manchester City (21-8-5, 76 points) managed a 3-3 draw in their latest Premier League match, but now they're chasing Arsenal by four points in the title race. The Citizens do have a match in hand, but they no longer control their own destiny. City will welcome in Brentford this weekend, who has looked solid this season at 14-9-12 (51 points). This game gets underway on Saturday at 12:30 p.m. ET from Etihad Stadium in Manchester.
I'll be on the Under in this City-Brentford Saturday showdown. Now, of course, Manchester City is an absolute wagon offensively, and there's always a chance that they net 3+ goals by themselves. However, Brentford has actually played very well defensively this season, ranking seventh in goals allowed (46) and fourth in shots on target allowed (128).
In the same categories, Manchester City ranks second (32) and second (112), respectively. At home, City has only conceded 12 goals across 16 matches, and they'll take on a Brentford side that only has 21 goals in 17 road contests. I can understand why the oddsmakers have a total of 3.5 since these offenses can score; however, with each squad doing well to limit shots on goal, I think this could turn into a low-event affair. I'm taking the Under.
Pick: Under 3.5 Goals (-125)
Nottingham Forest (+170) vs. Newcastle United (+155), DRAW (+255) | O/U 2.5 (-140/+110)
Nottingham Forest (11-9-15, 42 points) is coming off of an excellent 3-1 road win over Chelsea last weekend, and they've now won three straight matches. The Tricky Trees are in 16th place, but they continue to put distance between themselves and the relegation line (six-point cushion). Up next is Newcastle United (13-6-16, 45 points), who have been a bit underwhelming this season. Kick-off is slated for Sunday at 9:00 a.m. ET from The City Ground in Nottingham.
I'll jump on the Over in this game, especially considering we can get a line of just 2.5 goals. Forest has been dominating in the Premier League over the last couple of weeks, going 3-0-0 and scoring 3+ goals in all three outings. This should be another great opportunity for the Trees to bury a few goals as they take on the 14th-ranked Newcastle United defense (51 goals against).
Newcastle is coming off of a 3-1 road win over Brighton last time out, and they've now seen 3+ combined goals in five of their last six matches in all competitions. The blemish is a 1-0 road loss to Arsenal, which we can chalk up to an outlier data point considering how dominant the Gunners have been defensively. Ultimately, this feels like a match with a 2-1 floor, but I also won't be surprised if it spills over to 2-2 or 3-2. I'm taking the Over.
Pick: Over 2.5 Goals (-140)
Tottenham Hotspur (-115) vs. Leeds United (+285), DRAW (+290) | O/U 2.5 (-135/+105)
It was starting to look like Tottenham (9-10-16, 37 points) was destined to be relegated, but they've rattled off two straight wins and leapfrogged West Ham for the final relegation spot. They now hold a one-point edge over the Irons heading into the weekend. Tottenham returns home to square off against 14th-place Leeds United (10-13-12, 43 points), who are in solid form, going an unbeaten 2-4-0 over the last six matches. Kick-off is scheduled for Monday at 3:00 p.m. ET from Tottenham Hotspur Stadium in London.
As I mentioned, Leeds hasn't lost a league game in its last six tries. Now we're able to back the Whites at pick 'em pricing to either win or draw against one of the worst teams in the Premier League? Sign me up for that!
Tottenham has been atrocious at home this campaign going 2-5-10 with a -10 goal differential. The -10 home goal differential (20:30) is the third-worst in the league. Meanwhile, Leeds has been able to pick up a result in 10 of its 17 road matches (58.8%), going 2-8-7.
These squads are relatively even statistically, but Leeds still has a better goal differential (+7 vs. -10), more shots on target (143 vs. 138), and fewer shots on target against (134 vs. 139). With Leeds playing quality soccer at the moment, it's pretty hard to pass up on getting 0.5 goals with them. Let's back the visitors +0.5.
Pick: Leeds United +0.5 (-115)
