The first day of the Wild Card round of the Major League Baseball playoffs featured a little bit of everything. The Texas Rangers took advantage of the Tampa Bay Rays’ shoddy defense, the Minnesota Twins snapped an 18-game postseason losing streak, the Arizona Diamondbacks produced the only upset of the day, while the Philadelphia Phillies took their first step towards repeating as National League champions.
What is in store today with the four losing teams’ seasons on the line in Game 2? Here are my top picks for Wednesday’s MLB playoffs action. And below we dive into Rangers vs. Rays.
Wednesday's Best MLB Bets: Rangers vs. Rays
(Odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook)
Texas Rangers (+128) vs. Tampa Bay Rays (-152) | O/U 8 (-110/-110)
The Rays were never in Game 1 since they did not muster any runs, but they would have had a much better chance if they played better defensively. Tampa Bay made a franchise postseason record four errors, and the Rangers scored their four runs on a sacrifice fly, wild pitch, single, and throwing error.
Tampa Bay won 53 games at home this season, tied for the most in the majors, and we do not expect it to be swept out of the playoffs. Zach Eflin ranked sixth among qualified pitchers with a 23.8% K-BB% in the second half of the season, and he is coming off career bests in innings pitched, ERA, WHIP, FIP, strikeout percentage, and walk percentage. We expect him to outduel Rangers righty Nathan Eovaldi, who pitched to a 7.18 ERA over his final seven regular season starts and never recorded more than 15 outs in any of his six September starts. Eovaldi allowed two-plus home runs in three of those outings, and if he does not give the team a long outing, he will tax a bullpen that threw the sixth-most innings in September while ranking in the bottom eight in BABIP in that span.
The Rays won six of their last seven regular season home series, and we expect them to force a decisive Game 3 on Thursday behind a starting pitcher that went 3-0 in five September appearances.
Zach Eflin of @RaysBaseball has not allowed 10+ hits or 3+ walks in any of his 31 starts this season.
That would be the most such starts in a season in the modern era without recording either of those. The next-closest total is 29, done by Josh Tomlin in 2016. pic.twitter.com/eqPabediUy
— OptaSTATS (@OptaSTATS) September 27, 2023
Pick: Rays Moneyline (-152)
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Mike Spector is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Mike, check out his archive and follow him @MikeSpector01.