Thor Nystrom’s Best College Football Week 0 Bets (2023)

As college football fans eagerly anticipate the start of the new season, Week 0 presents an exciting opportunity to get a taste of the action before the official kickoff next week. We have a handful of intriguing matchups on the schedule, and we’ll break down the games and look for the best values. Here's a look at College Football Week 0 spreads and totals along with my projections. Below, you can find my best bets of the week.

As college football fans eagerly anticipate the start of the new season, Week 0 presents an exciting opportunity to get a taste of the action before the official kickoff next week. We have a handful of intriguing matchups on the schedule, and we’ll break down the games and look for the best values. Here's a look at College Football Week 0 spreads and totals along with my projections. Below, you can find my best bets of the week.

Best College Football Week 0 Bets

2022: 109-84-4 ATS (56.5%)
2014-2022: 815-704-21 ATS (53.6%)

In the box below are my adjusted spreads for this weekend's games. ATL stands for "Adjusted Thor Line," and ATT stands for "Adjusted Thor Total." Spreads are from the home team's perspective, i.e., a negative number indicates the home team is favored.

UTEP (-1) at Jacksonville State

ATL: UTEP -4.4

In mid-July, I was asked on Twitter to pick one Week 0 upset. UTEP was low-hanging fruit, but I reached for it anyway. Jacksonville State was -2 at the time.

Is UTEP over J-State too easy?

Suspicious line ?"

I have UTEP -5

— Thor Nystrom (@thorku) July 16, 2023

The market has since bet UTEP into small-favorite status. But in my opinion, it hasn't gone far enough yet. My system still believes we're getting over a field goal of line value, here.

Listen, I love RichRod. But it's asking a lot for him, in JSU's debut in the FBS, to beat a UTEP team that two seasons ago played in a bowl game, and last year probably should have (5-7 with a few near-misses - including a 24-0 blown lead against UTSA in the finale).

RichRod returns 16 starters from last year's 9-2 team. But it should be noted that JSU went 5-6 in the FCS the year before that. And now they're making a big leap up in competition.

JSU will run RichRod's patented run-first spread-shotgun offense. And though I think JSU will have success on the ground in Year 1, this is going to be a one-dimensional offense. Last year, seventh-year QB Zion Webb posted a 10/9 TD/INT rate at the sub-division level.

UTEP has 15 starters returning, and most of the bedrocks of the teams that have turned around the Miners' fortunes the past two years. QB Gavin Hardison is a three-year starter. RB Deion Hankins is a veteran 235-pound sledgehammer. WR Tyrin Smith, who returned home after spending the spring at Texas A&M, is one of the best playmakers in the conference. And UTEP has the conference's best OL, which returns four starters.

I further believe that this will be Dimel's best defense while at UTEP. The Miners return seven starters, and proven production along all three levels. The weak spot last year was the secondary, a fact Dimel acknowledged by signing five DBs in the portal, including an immediate starter from New Mexico.

Of course, even if UTEP's secondary is a weakness again, that isn't going to come into play against this Jacksonville State team. JSU must move the ball on the ground. They're going to run into resistance here: I believe UTEP has CUSA's No. 2 front seven behind MTSU.

Jacksonville State isn't up to snuff in this matchup on either side of the line of scrimmage. And the Miners, who came so close to reaching a second-straight bowl last year only to have their season end in devastating fashion, are a veteran-laden squad who are going to be ready to go in the opener.

The pick: UTEP -1

Hawaii (+17.5) at Vanderbilt

ATL: Hawaii +12.8

Sneaky revenge spot here for the Rainbow Warriors. Last season, Hawaii opened the HC Timmy Chang era by getting annihilated 63-10 on their homefield against Vandy.

This time around, Hawaii travels to Nashville - but with a roster far more equipped to give the Commodores a fight.

Chang's first Hawaii team had issues getting the run-and-shoot offense off the ground due to shoddy QB play. But Hawaii kept fighting, and QB Brayden Schager started improving as the season went along.

After posting an 0/4 TD/INT rate in the first three games, Schager recorded a 13/6 TD/INT rate over the final 10. And following Hawaii's 0-2 SU and ATS start, the Rainbow Warriors went 9-2 ATS down the stretch - keeping games closer than expected even as they played out the string on a lost 3-10 campaign.

Chang's offense has a potential star in the versatile RB Tylan Hines, who averaged 7.6 YPC last year. Over the offseason, Hawaii experimented with Hines in the slot - expect them to get creative with finding ways to get the ball in his hands this fall.

Creating holes for him will be an offensive line that finished No. 19 in Offensive Line Yards last year and returns over 100 career starts this fall.

And Hawaii not only returns nine starters on defense, but they added former Wyoming CB Cam Stone, a Preseason Jim Thorpe Watch Lister. The Rainbow Warriors' secondary is one of the best in the MWC. The front seven is the weakness of the defense.

What's important about that is Vanderbilt's offense is decidedly more strong on the passing side than when running. That's because RB Ray Davis left for Kentucky over the offseason, leaving the RB room to youngsters and unknowns.

And while Vandy's offense has big-armed QB AJ Swann and a solid WR corps, Swann's propensity to put the ball in harm's way could come back to bite the 'Dores in a matchup against this feisty Hawaii secondary. Last year, among FBS QBs with more than 200 dropbacks, Swann had the seventh-highest turnover-worthy play percentage, per PFF.

Vandy's defense was awful last year, finishing No. 124 in scoring (36.0 PPG allowed). The pass defense (No. 126) was worse than the run defense. But that run defense lost standout LB Anfernee Orji. And the secondary isn't likely to be much better this fall.

I believe the Rainbow Warriors will carry over momentum from the end of last season and give Vanderbilt a scare in the Week 0 opener.

The pick: Hawaii +17.5

Notre Dame vs. Navy (Ireland) UNDER 51.5

ATT: 45

The NCAA changed the clock rules over the offseason to keep the clock running after first downs (outside of the last two minutes of each half). This will, according to estimates, burn an extra 3-5 minutes per game of clock that otherwise would have been stopped. Which, of course, will result in fewer plays being run, which could shave a few points per game off this year's average scoring output.

As sportsbooks adjust to this new normal, there could be value in betting unders early - particularly on matchups between teams who project to have extra clock run-off. Teams whose offensive output is skewed more heavily towards explosive plays and less towards efficiency won't see as big a difference under these new rules. Teams who methodically move the ball down the field will - the clock will keep ticking, even after first-down conversions.

Navy, still running the triple-option, fits the latter description as well as anyone. And Notre Dame, even with Sam Hartman, projects to be more efficient than explosive - one of the team's biggest question marks is its receivers. There are no such questions about ND's RBs or OL.

In addition, both of these teams run slow-tempo offenses - Notre Dame ranked No. 114 in tempo last year, Navy ranked No. 125. And they'll both be in their first games playing for new OCs. The Irish promoted Gerad Parker (the TE coach last year) to take Tommy Rees' old spot, while Navy is turning its offense over to Grant Chestnut (who will also coach the OL).

Chestnut, a disciple of Paul Johnson, comes from Kennesaw State. Chestnut melds spread-option concepts with Johnson's traditional flexbone looks - but, importantly, his offense still relies heavily on the flexbone. The problem with that is the NCAA's big rule change from last year that eliminated cut-blocking outside the tackle box, erasing the advantage the service academies had in running it.

It's part of the reason that Ken Niumatalolo was shown the door after last season - his offense had lost its teeth. It's the reason Army moved from the flexbone to a spread-option offense in the old Coastal Carolina-vain this offseason. And could it be part of the reason that Kennesaw went from 11-2 in 2021 to 5-6 last year?

I think Navy's offense is going to struggle again this season. But even when it's moving the ball, it will be leaning into the NCAA's new clock-churning rule - further shortening its games and suppressing offensive plays run on both sides.

Notre Dame's defense, meanwhile, returns eight starters. The two-deep is littered with experience, and the starting lineup is top-10 quality nationally. It's doubtful that Navy's offense, in Chestnut's debut, frustrates this group that had all offseason to prepare.

And on the other side, in Parker's first game as the Irish's OC, and Hartman's debut at Notre Dame, the Irish's offense figures to skew more conservative than we'll see come November. And if the Irish have a three-TD lead in the fourth quarter, you can bet the starters will get yanked and a deflate-the-ball strategy will be used to ice things away.

Note: In the 24 hours after I punched this bet into the BettingPros app - download it and follow me for bets as I make them - this total has dropped to 49. I would still play the under at that number.

The pick: ND-Navy UNDER 51.5

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