Here's a look at College Football Week 1 spreads and totals along with my projections. Below, you can find my best bets of the week.
2023: 3-1 ATS (75.0%)
2014-2022: 815-704-21 ATS (53.6%)
Here's a look at College Football Week 1 spreads and totals along with my projections. Below, you can find my best bets of the week.
2023: 3-1 ATS (75.0%)
2014-2022: 815-704-21 ATS (53.6%)
Note: In the table below, ATL is my system's projected spread, and ATT is my system's projected total. Spreads are from the home team's perspective, i.e., a negative number indicates the home team is favored.
| Away | Home | Vegas Spread | Proj Spread | Vegas Total | Proj Total | Day |
| Kent St. | UCF | -36.5 | -33.5 | 57.5 | 55.9 | Thursday |
| North Carolina St. | UConn | 14.5 | 15.6 | 46.5 | 42.0 | Thursday |
| Nebraska | Minnesota | -7.5 | -7.0 | 43.5 | 43.3 | Thursday |
| Florida | Utah | -6.5 | -9.5 | 45.5 | 50.0 | Thursday |
| Miami (OH) | Miami (FL) | -16.5 | -22.4 | 45.0 | 41.5 | Friday |
| Central Michigan | Michigan St. | -14.5 | -18.0 | 45.5 | 50.3 | Friday |
| Louisville | Georgia Tech | 8.0 | 15.1 | 48.5 | 45.0 | Friday |
| Stanford | Hawai’i | 3.5 | 2.0 | 60.5 | 50.7 | Friday |
| Utah St. | Iowa | -25.5 | -30.5 | 45.0 | 39.7 | Saturday |
| Fresno St. | Purdue | -4.5 | -6.6 | 48.5 | 57.3 | Saturday |
| Ball St. | Kentucky | -26.5 | -27.6 | 48.5 | 40.0 | Saturday |
| Bowling Green | Liberty | -9.5 | -11.7 | 50.0 | 50.5 | Saturday |
| Northern Illinois | Boston College | -9.5 | -10.5 | 50.5 | 56.9 | Saturday |
| East Carolina | Michigan | -36.0 | -40.4 | 51.5 | 61.9 | Saturday |
| Virginia | Tennessee | -28.0 | -22.7 | 57.5 | 59.5 | Saturday |
| Arkansas St. | Oklahoma | -35.5 | -33.9 | 58.5 | 66.1 | Saturday |
| Colorado | TCU | -20.5 | -16.6 | 63.5 | 67.1 | Saturday |
| Louisiana Tech | SMU | -20.5 | -19.7 | 65.5 | 74.0 | Saturday |
| Akron | Temple | -10.5 | -10.1 | 55.0 | 50.1 | Saturday |
| UMass | Auburn | -36.5 | -36.5 | 52.5 | 44.9 | Saturday |
| Buffalo | Wisconsin | -27.5 | -29.4 | 54.5 | 50.7 | Saturday |
| Boise St. | Washington | -14.5 | -17.8 | 58.5 | 61.2 | Saturday |
| Rice | Texas | -35.5 | -34.0 | 59.0 | 56.1 | Saturday |
| Ohio St. | Indiana | 29.5 | 32.9 | 59.5 | 70.2 | Saturday |
| South Florida | Western Kentucky | -11.5 | -10.1 | 69.5 | 72.4 | Saturday |
| California | North Texas | 6.5 | 3.6 | 56.5 | 55.4 | Saturday |
| Nevada | USC | -38.5 | -40.5 | 66.0 | 70.7 | Saturday |
| Army | Louisiana-Monroe | 10.0 | 8.2 | 47.5 | 55.7 | Saturday |
| New Mexico | Texas A&M | -38.0 | -39.8 | 48.5 | 45.0 | Saturday |
| Washington St. | Colorado St. | 12.5 | 9.0 | 54.5 | 49.0 | Saturday |
| UTSA | Houston | 1.5 | 0.3 | 60.5 | 68.5 | Saturday |
| Texas St. | Baylor | -27.5 | -31.9 | 62.5 | 51.0 | Saturday |
| Toledo | Illinois | -9.0 | -7.5 | 46.5 | 43.1 | Saturday |
| West Virginia | Penn St. | -20.5 | -21.9 | 50.5 | 67.1 | Saturday |
| Middle Tennessee | Alabama | -39.5 | -39.2 | 51.5 | 60.7 | Saturday |
| Texas Tech | Wyoming | 14.0 | 14.1 | 52.0 | 49.4 | Saturday |
| North Carolina | South Carolina | 2.5 | 3.0 | 64.5 | 70.1 | Saturday |
| Old Dominion | Virginia Tech | -15.5 | -10.5 | 48.0 | 37.7 | Saturday |
| South Alabama | Tulane | -6.5 | -8.4 | 52.5 | 49.3 | Saturday |
| Sam Houston St. | BYU | -20.0 | -20.5 | 47.0 | 41.4 | Saturday |
| Coastal Carolina | UCLA | -14.5 | -20.5 | 65.5 | 69.0 | Saturday |
| Northwestern | Rutgers | -6.5 | -4.6 | 40.5 | 37.6 | Sunday |
| Oregon St. | San Jose St. | 16.5 | 21.1 | 54.5 | 47.9 | Sunday |
| LSU | Florida St. | 2.5 | 2.7 | 58.0 | 61.2 | Sunday |
| Clemson | Duke | 13.0 | 11.7 | 55.5 | 55.5 | Monday |
ATT: 48
Kent State's offense returns zero starters. After consistently putting up points in Sean Lewis' hyper-tempo system the past few years, new OC Matt Johnson is likely to toggle that back, at least initially, with so little talent and experience coming back.
Johnson, who played QB for Dino Babers, Lewis' mentor, at Bowling Green, says he'll keep Lewis' scheme. But it's hard to imagine Johnson, formerly KSU's RB coach, not leaning more into the run game and not slowing the tempo. That would help protect his zero-experience offense but also aid a KSU defense that returns only four starters.
A more methodical attack would also seem to be the prerogative of former Minnesota RB coach Kenni Burns, KSU's new HC. The Gophers' offense ran out of the nation's slowest paces last fall.
The forecast calls for rain in Orlando in the pregame, along with a greater than 60% of rain during the game itself. That should provide its own incentive to the home team to keep the ball on the ground all the more often. With the new clock rules, time will melt off the clock, if this is indeed the run-heavy game, and I think it will be.
Lastly, with the Knights installed as a five-TD favorite, you have to wonder how deep into the second half the starters will play.
The pick: UNDER 55
ATL: Stanford -2.1
Last week, we hit on Hawaii +17.5 at Vandy - the Rainbow Warriors lost 35-28. That game improved Hawaii to 10-2 ATS over their last 12.
QB Brayden Shager - who posted a 0/4 TD/INT rate in the first three games of 2022 and a 13/6 TD/INT rate over the final 10 - threw for 351 yards on 77.1% completions and a 10.0 YPA average with a 3/2 TD/INT rate in the opener.
Shager's improvement has taken Hawaii's offense to another level and allowed HC Timmy Chang to open up his Run'N'Shoot offense. Hawaii has strong OL play (No. 19 in Offensive Line Yards last year and returned over 100 career starts), a potential star at RB in Tylan Hines (7.6 YPC last year), and receiving depth.
"It was a sloppy game, and we were fortunate to come away with a win,” Vanderbilt HC Clark Lea said after the game. “The first credit goes to (Hawaii coach) Timmy Chang, who's done a really nice job advancing that program. It's a prideful team that was fighting for the state of Hawaii."
Lea was right on a few different accounts. Not only is Hawaii a better team than it was in 2022 - especially at the outset - but the Rainbow Warriors have rallied around a Maui Strong creed. Saturday's game against Stanford is Hawaii's home opener - there will be plenty of emotion in that stadium.
As for the other side, I wrote this in the BettingPros app* when I locked this pick in earlier this week: "…the Cardinal have one of the least talented/experienced P5 rosters I've seen heading into a season during my years doing this. With a new staff. The Rainbow Warriors, who can now pass in Chang R'N'S, are now frisky."
Stanford is 14-28 SU since 2019. And the Cardinal just lost a metric ton of talent. It returns only seven guys who started last season. There are only a few players on the roster with clear cases of potentially playing in the NFL someday. The new FCS-heavy coaching staff is making its FBS debut.
Stanford returns zero starters in the secondary and is likely to have issues there all season. That could be a problem in this game now that Hawaii can throw again. I ended my writeup in the app with this sentence: "Rainbow Warriors outright."
The pick: Hawaii +3.5
ATL: BC -10.5
Both of these teams are going to be much better this season than they were last year. This is not a bet against NIU, a team I am higher on than the market. This is a bet on BC, a team I'm significantly higher on than the market.
For both of these teams, you totally throw out last year's numbers.
Starting NIU QB Rocky Lombardi only played four games in 2022, while star WR Trayvon Rudolph missed the entire season after putting up 900-plus yards in each of the previous two.
On the other side, Boston College's offensive line was on the wrong end of a hand-of-God injury plague in 2022. That forced the Eagles to get creative to even field five-man lines each week - converting defensive linemen to OL on the fly, starting walk-ons, and switching the positions of the remaining few healthy OLs.
This year, BC's line brings back all five normal starters and returns to full strength - a development that cannot be overstated. BC can field an offense again. And that unit returns nine starters. Despite losing WR Zay Flowers, the Eagles offense is guaranteed to be better in 2023.
NIU returns 15 starters in total. They'll be improved. But it's asking a lot for them to stay within single digits in the opener against a superior team when so many key players need to shake off the rust after missing all or most of last season.
This feels like a game where BC lets off some steam after last year's frustration.
The pick: Boston College -8.5
ATL: Liberty -11.8
I feel confident that Liberty is qualitatively double-digits better than Bowling Green. Locking this bet in is a show of confidence in new HC Jamey Chadwell that his offensive system, in particular, will be up and running in Week 1.
Chadwell went 31-7 in his last three seasons at Coastal Carolina. In his first season - not counting the 2017 one-off where Chadwell was forced into interim duties - back in 2019, Chadwell repeated the 5-7 record from the year before. But his team slightly outperformed expectations at the window, going 7-5 ATS.
The difference between this situation and that one is Liberty had more talent on hand when Chadwell took over. The Flames' offense has everything returning that Chadwell's attack needs to cook, including exciting dual-threat QB Kaidon Salter, a former four-star recruit.
Chadwell's freeze-option RPO system has worked at every coaching stop he's ever been at. Its use of misdirection, multiple ball-carrier options, and varied blocking schemes tends to confuse and frustrate defenses. Chadwell dials up one-on-one downfield shots off play-action when they inevitably overcompensate to address the rush.
I'm lower on Bowling Green than the market. Last year, BGU made bowl season with a fraudulent resume, going 6-6 courtesy of a 5-1 record in one-possession games. The one loss? The Falcons lost by two in 7OT to an FCS team.
BGU lost three of four leading receivers over the offseason, while the defense lost by far its best player, DT Karl Brooks. Last year's defense was No. 13 in the FBS in sacks but No. 113 with 32.5 PPG allowed. Brooks had 10 sacks himself and contributed to multiple others through the extra attention he received. BGU's pass rush may fall off a cliff this season without him - a concerning idea when you consider the straights of the rest of a unit that returns only five starters.
If Liberty's offense can run Chadwell's offense in the opener, they're going to move the ball at will. And not for nothing: Liberty's returning players will want to make a statement after last year's team started 8-1 but ended on a four-game losing streak, while former HC Hugh Freeze focused on Auburn negotiations more than game planning and then fled down before the bowl game.
The pick: Liberty -9.5
ATL: Purdue -6.6
The discrepancy in my number against the market's number boils down to this: I'm higher than the market on Purdue, and I'm certainly lower than the market is on Fresno State.
Fresno returns only four starters on offense - all along the offensive line! The skills will have to be remade from scratch after losing QB Jake Haener, RB Jordan Mims, and WRs Jalen Cropper and Nikko Remigio over the offseason. While the defense returns seven starters, it lost its best edge rusher, DE David Perales, who had 11.5 sacks last year.
The Boilermakers lost HC Jeff Brohm and NFL QB Aidan O'Connell over the offseason. But Purdue did well to replace Brohm with Broyles-winning ex-Illinois DC Ryan Walters. Walters, in turn, signed former Texas QB Hudson Card to run new OC Graham Harrell's Air Raid system. Card is a former top dual-threat recruit who posted an 11/2 TD/INT rate over five career starts at Texas.
Walters' 3-4 defense presses five men to the line of scrimmage. If Purdue makes it difficult for Fresno State to run, it's going to put a ton of pressure on new FSU QB Mikey Keene and his brand-new WR corps to keep up. Keene is accurate but lacks the arm strength to force the defense back.
The pick: Purdue -3.5
ATL: TCU -16.5
Last offseason, three Power 5 programs signed 18 or more transfers in the portal: Ole Miss, LSU, and USC. Those three teams - two of which had new HCs - had one thing in common. They all exceeded expectations and went over their 2022 win totals (USC 9.5 | 11-1, Ole Miss 7.5 | 8-4, LSU 7 | 9-3).
I'm not going to argue that Colorado is as talented as any of those teams - the Buffs are not. But what I am going to argue is that, based on early returns, the amount of season-to-season turnover has shown to be far less predictive than talent on hand. Put another way: It matters less how many transfers you take and lose, more how much talent was acquired against how much was lost. USC, Ole Miss, and LSU all had top-5 rated On3 portal hauls last year.
Colorado, the worst team in the P5 last year, just signed 51 transfers. That’s less important than this: The Buffaloes signed the consensus No. 1 portal class in the nation. Those rankings take into account both talent added and talent lost. That is to say, No roster improved more than Colorado's over the offseason.
Yet it feels like the market is underselling Colorado in the same way it undersold the three teams mentioned above last offseason - under the hospices of any idea that already may be antiquated: That roster turnover itself is bad. I'm also going to argue this: From a sheer talent perspective, these programs are far closer than is perceived.
Keep in mind TCU's enormous personnel losses over the offseason, including a laundry list of current NFL players: QB Max Duggan, RB Kendre Miller, WRs Quentin Johnston, Taye Barber, and Derius Davis, OL Steve Avilla, EDGE Dylan Horton, LB Dee Winters, and CB Tre Tomlinson.
TCU returns only 10 starters, including just three on offense. That offense will be overseen by a new OC, Kendall Briles, after Garrett Riley left for Clemson. We know TCU's offense will drop off in 2023. We just don't know by how much.
The Horned Frog defense - which returns seven starters, including potential R1 pick CB Josh Newton - may improve. But that's not guaranteed. It just lost three impact starters. Tomlinson won the Thorpe Award last year. Horton and Winter accounted for almost 60 percent of the team's sacks.
Colorado is far from a perfect team. I have concerns about their defensive interior. The offensive line is far from elite. But the Buffs have plenty of offensive firepower, and their secondary is going to be very good immediately. New OC Sean Lewis, the former Kent State HC, runs a high-scoring, up-tempo system, and he has the pieces to start quickly here.
QB Shadeur Sanders, a former four-star recruit, is a star-caliber talent. His receiving corps, comprised of two above-average starters from USF and former No. 1 overall recruit WR/CB Travis Hunter, should be solid. The RB room is stocked with Alton McCaskill, Kavosiey Smoke, and four-star Dylan Edwards.
The secondary will start two five-star outside CBs - Hunter and Cormani McClain - with former standout Arkansas starter Myles Slusher in the nickel role. CU also boasts a solid four-man LB group in its 3-4 defense.
I'm not going overboard on Colorado - my system's win total for the Buffs was right around Vegas' 3.5 number. But the market appears to be overreacting in this game, not upgrading Colorado nearly enough for its massive jump in talent while not downgrading TCU enough for its talent drop-off.
The pick: Colorado +20.5
ATL: UNT -3.6
The market is giving Cal way too much credit here. Cal's offense is going to be down after losing QB Jack Plummer and WR J. Michael Sturdivant. And while I like Cal's front seven, I have serious reservations about its green secondary.
That could be a problem against North Texas. The Mean Green hired Eric Morris, a Mike Leach disciple, as HC over the offseason. Morris' offense is an up-tempo variation on the Air Raid that runs roughly 40 percent of the time and makes heavy use of the RPO.
It's an offense designed to put the defense into conflict and then force it to tackle in space. Morris figures to attack that inexperienced Cal secondary early and often.
And not for nothing: The forecast on Saturday afternoon in Denton calls for 98-degree heat. The average August afternoon temperature in Berkeley is 75 degrees. Cal does not have great depth, so the starters better be ready for the heat.
I think the Mean Green has a decent shot to spring the outright upset.
The pick: North Texas +7
ATL: Wazzu -8.9
Another game where I disagree with the market on both teams. HC Jay Norvell's first season in Fort Collins was done in by cluster injuries that decimated his offensive line. The Rams should not be priced like a typical team coming off a 3-9 - improvement is guaranteed.
Playing behind a roughshod offensive line as a redshirt freshman, CSU QB Clay Millen completed 72.2% of his passes on 8.2 YPA. Millen will have his coming-out party this fall. CSU has one of the G5's best WR corps, led by future NFL WR Tory Horton.
That unit could pose a problem for a Wazzu defense that is guaranteed to fall off in 2023. Star LB Daiyan Henley was a R3 pick in April, and Wazzu additionally lost LB Francisco Mauigoa to Miami and LB Travion Brown to Arizona State. Only five starters return on a unit under the direction of a new DC.
CSU's defense, on the other hand, is likely to be better. That unit has quietly slashed its PPG allowed average from 35.8 to 28.3 to 26.9 the past two seasons. And with eight starters back, I think they'll cut that number once again.
Wazzu's offense was also hit hard by the portal - WSU lost 26 transfers and signed only 10 - with WR De'Zhaun Stribling going to Oklahoma State, WR Donovan Ollie transferring to Cincinnati, and OL Jarrett Kingston defecting to USC. And, of course, OC Eric Morris left for North Texas.
For Wazzu's offense not to lose ground, QB Cam Ward needs to be significantly better. You could say I'm pessimistic about those prospects. Last year, of the 87 FBS QBs who attempted at least 230 passes, Ward finished No. 83 in PFF passing grade. Among that group, Ward finished top-15 in PFF turnover-worthy throws and bottom-7 in big-time throws.
This is a prime opportunity for a much-improved Rams team to ambush a Power 5 opponent at home.
The pick: Colorado State +11.5
ATL: Army -8.1
This is a pure fade of Army in their first game running a spread-option offense after years of the flexbone.
Too many points to give a home underdog known for springing upsets. ULM HC Terry Bowden is 5-2 ATS as a home 'dog since 2021, with outright double-digit upsets of Troy, Liberty, South Alabama in 2021, and Louisiana last season. That's right: Twice as many upsets as a double-digit 'dog in this scenario than ATS losses.
If Army isn't careful in their first new game running a radically new offense that they may not have the personnel for, they're going to end up as ULM's next victim.
The pick: Louisiana-Monroe +9.5
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