Thor Nystrom’s Best College Football Week 6 Bets (2023)

Here's a look at College Football Week 6 spreads and totals, along with my projections. Below, you can find my best bets of the week.

Get instant alerts when a line reaches your target via the BettingPros App >>

Here's a look at College Football Week 6 spreads and totals, along with my projections. Below, you can find my best bets of the week.

Get instant alerts when a line reaches your target via the BettingPros App >>

Best College Football Week 6 Bets

2023: 45-35-2 (56.2%) ATS
2014-2022: 815-704-21 ATS (53.6%)

Note: In the table below, ATL ("Adjusted Thor Line") is my system's projected spread, and ATT ("Adjusted Thor Total") is my system's projected total. Spreads are from the home team's perspective - a negative number indicates the home team is favored.

My bets below were all locked into the BettingPros app earlier this week. My record is also tracked in the app. To get my bets the second I make them, download the BettingPros app, follow me at BettingPros.com/thor, and turn on notifications.

Away	Home	Vegas Spread	Proj Spread	Vegas Total	Proj Total	Day
Sam Houston	Liberty	-19.5	-20.7	46.0	33.4	Thursday
Western Kentucky	Louisiana Tech	6.0	5.2	60.0	67.7	Thursday
Kansas St.	Oklahoma St.	11.5	11.8	54.5	57.6	Friday
Nebraska	Illinois	-3.5	-3.6	43.0	38.7	Friday
Maryland	Ohio St.	-20.0	-17.4	57.5	59.5	Saturday
Toledo	UMass	19.5	18.0	58.5	52.6	Saturday
LSU	Missouri	6.0	4.0	64.5	59.5	Saturday
Western Michigan	Mississippi St.	-20.5	-19.5	56.5	48.4	Saturday
Oklahoma	Texas	-6.5	-3.0	60.5	60.2	Saturday
Rutgers	Wisconsin	-13.0	-11.6	44.5	46.8	Saturday
Boston College	Army	-3.0	-5.4	50.0	51.5	Saturday
Marshall	North Carolina St.	-6.5	-4.4	44.5	33.6	Saturday
UTSA	Temple	14.0	10.2	54.5	53.0	Saturday
Central Michigan	Buffalo	3.0	-0.6	53.5	57.5	Saturday
Washington St.	UCLA	-3.5	-4.7	59.0	60.2	Saturday
Purdue	Iowa	-2.5	-8.0	38.5	44.1	Saturday
Virginia Tech	Florida St.	-23.5	-23.1	53.0	52.4	Saturday
Syracuse	North Carolina	-8.5	-5.7	59.5	60.6	Saturday
Texas St.	Louisiana	-2.5	-1.8	68.5	56.0	Saturday
Wake Forest	Clemson	-21.0	-20.9	51.5	64.2	Saturday
Alabama	Texas A&M	2.0	0.6	47.0	49.5	Saturday
Northern Illinois	Akron	6.5	3.1	43.5	54.8	Saturday
Kent St.	Ohio	-26.0	-21.0	45.5	53.6	Saturday
Ball St.	Eastern Michigan	-2.5	-1.8	42.5	48.3	Saturday
Bowling Green	Miami (OH)	-10.0	-11.9	46.5	48.0	Saturday
North Texas	Navy	-6.0	-2.1	61.0	57.0	Saturday
Arkansas St.	Troy	-16.5	-14.2	51.5	45.1	Saturday
Vanderbilt	Florida	-18.5	-15.8	52.0	62.3	Saturday
South Florida	UAB	3.5	3.3	68.5	61.3	Saturday
UCF	Kansas	-2.0	0.9	64.5	69.6	Saturday
Connecticut	Rice	-9.5	-11.6	47.5	49.0	Saturday
Tulsa	Florida Atlantic	-3.5	-2.7	55.5	53.0	Saturday
Colorado	Arizona St.	4.5	6.3	60.0	57.1	Saturday
Kentucky	Georgia	-14.5	-14.8	48.0	41.0	Saturday
Old Dominion	Southern Miss	-1.5	-1.1	57.5	44.6	Saturday
South Alabama	Louisiana-Monroe	10.5	10.7	50.5	50.4	Saturday
Arkansas	Ole Miss	-11.5	-12.6	63.5	66.0	Saturday
Michigan	Minnesota	19.5	18.4	46.0	44.7	Saturday
Notre Dame	Louisville	6.5	8.4	54.0	52.0	Saturday
Colorado St.	Utah St.	1.5	-2.4	65.0	51.8	Saturday
San Jose St.	Boise St.	-9.5	-11.4	59.0	47.8	Saturday
Fresno St.	Wyoming	6.0	4.3	44.5	44.6	Saturday
Georgia Tech	Miami (FL)	10.5	-20.5	57.5	45.6	Saturday
Texas Tech	Baylor	1.5	4.3	60.5	58.9	Saturday
TCU	Iowa St.	6.5	5.4	52.5	46.5	Saturday
Oregon St.	California	9.5	12.1	51.5	47.1	Saturday
Arizona	USC	-21.5	-19.4	72.0	76.2	Saturday

Missouri (+7) vs. LSU

ATL: LSU -4.0

We're going to keep betting against LSU until the sportsbooks begin to appreciate just how bad their defense is.

The Tigers' defense is outside the top-105 nationally in havoc rate, success rate, efficiency, IsoPPP, marginal explosiveness, explosive play rate, points per opportunity, run success rate, pass success rate, and passing explosion (there's more, but we'll just cut the list off now).

LSU is going to get lit up by superstar WR Luther Burden III and Mizzou's No. 13 success rate passing offense.

And while LSU's offense is top-5 nationally by the advanced numbers, Missouri's defense ranks No. 18 SP+. Mizzou's defense is nasty against the run (No. 7 success rate) and average against the pass (No. 54). If nothing else, it's going to force LSU's mighty offense to play one-handed.

The play: Mizzou +7 (play to +4.5)

Oklahoma (+5.5) at Texas

ATL: UT -3.0

If you follow me on this one, you'll get a better number on this game than I did on Sunday. EIther way, a Texas tax is being baked in.

The Longhorns have been fabulous this year. The passing attack is fabulous. The offensive line has been good. And the run defense is downright nasty behind a ferocious defensive front.

But Texas is not a perfect team. While Texas' running attack has been explosive (No. 14), it has not been efficient (No. 93). That's one theory for why the Longhorns are only No. 73 in points per opportunity, and outside the top-105 in both red zone TD rate and goal-to-go TD rate.

And while the defense has been extremely efficient against both the run and pass (No. 2 success rate), it gives up far too many explosive plays (No. 121). Texas can be particularly susceptible on the back-end.

I believe that's where Oklahoma's points will come from. QB Dillon Gabriel has been lights-out so far, with a 15/2 TD/INT rate on a career-best 80.4% adjusted completion percentage. In a bitter revenge spot following last year's Texas demolition in this game, we think OU will be more competitive than the market does. Even if we're wrong on that account, the number leaves the door wide-open for a late backdoor cover.

The play: Oklahoma +5.5 (play to +4.5)

Texas Tech (+1.5) at Baylor

ATL: Tech -4.3

In the days since I made this bet, Texas Tech has become the small favorite. Though there are still multiple books where you can get pick 'em as of this typing.

The advanced data on this game all points to Tech being the right side. So our handicap really boils down to one simple-yet-unanswerable-in-advance question: What do we make of the final quarter-plus of last week's UCF-Baylor game?

With four minutes left in the third quarter, Baylor was a 1-3 team that was getting mauled 35-7. But facing the prospect of a 1-4 start, the Bears roared back with 29 consecutive points to steal a win, the largest comeback in Baylor history.

We have standard caveats to qualify that: UCF was playing with its backup QB. And the Knights, despite their collapse - it was also the largest comeback allowed in UCF's history - still had a 59-yard field goal attempt as time expired to win the game... it of course missed.

But there are also a few potential forward-focused indicators that Baylor may have stumbled upon a few things. QB Blake Shapen - unequivocally superior to QB2 Sawyer Robertson as it turns out - is healthy again, and Baylor shifted into a hurry-up offense that Shapen looked far more comfortable in. After the game, HC Dave Aranda said the Bears will roll with that tempo going forward as a base offense.

That gives hope of offensive improvement. But it's a longshot from guaranteeing it. Despite the killer end to the UCF game, Baylor's offense still ranks No. 114 in success rate and No. 125 in points per scoring opportunity.

The offensive line has been a huge problem, with the third-worst blown block rate in the entire FBS. That's one reason Baylor's run offense has greatly underwhelmed. Shapen has taken big hits in every game he's been active in, including numerous ones last week in his return against UCF. Shapen is always one bad hit away from ceding to Robertson again.

And we haven't even mentioned that Baylor's defense and special teams have sagged to No. 68 and No. 103, respectively. I'’m not able to provide similar hope for improvement in those areas.

Baylor's CBs have been solid, but the Bears' safeties regularly make mistakes, leaving freebie explosive-play opportunities for the offense. The defensive line is decent but undersized - there's no occupier even close to a NT Siaki Ika on this roster, and setting the edge has been a legitimate issue. The linebacking corps lacks foot speed, which has made tall tasks of both helping on outside-the-tackle runs and also carrying RBs and TEs in coverage.

This week's opponent, Texas Tech, is coached by former Baylor assistant Joey McGuire, who helped bring several current players on Baylor's roster to Waco. Texas Tech already has strong offensive play-calling - OC Zach Kittley is one of the sport's biggest rising stars - and figures to have a detailed plan of attack to exploit Baylor's several pronounced defensive weaknesses.

Tech's run defense has been very good this fall - in part because of the team's No. 16 standing in tackle rate - and figures to be able to make Baylor's finding-its-way offense play one-handed. The way you beat Tech's pass defense is through explosive plays. But that aspect of Baylor's offense, due to the OL issues and a mediocre WR corps, has thus far been dormant.

Both of these teams enter 2-3. The loser's bowl hopes will take a mortal blow. But make no mistake: Tech has been the easily superior team to this point, collecting 3.4 second-order wins. Tech finished with a higher than 30% postgame expectancy in every game, including the Oregon one, and was above 84% in three games, including the ultimate loss to Wyoming.

Baylor, on the other hand, has 1.7 second-order wins. Unless Baylor's offense plays four quarters like they did the final 18 minutes of the UCF game, we think Dave Aranda's crew is in trouble.

The play: Texas Tech +1.5 (play to Tech -2.5)

Texas A&M (+2) vs. Alabama

ATL: Bama -0.6

Alabama's one-handed offense has forced it to play in a very specific way. The Tide run at a top-10 percentage on standard downs, and they're well-below average nationally in adjusted offensive pace.

The Tide's run attack is strong, the defense is top-10, and the special teams are top-15. But Alabama cannot pass, ranking No. 81 success rate through the air with No. 59 explosiveness.

Unfortunately for the Tide, A&M's run defense might be the most improved in the nation. Last year, the Aggies' run defense finished No. 69 in success rate. This season, A&M ranks No. 11. The Aggies also sit No. 10 in passing success rate on defense, ensuring that Alabama QB Jalen Milroe won't be doing much through the air.

Speaking of improvement, A&M's offense has surged from last year's No. 71 SP+ finish to No. 28. QB Max Johnson is only a minor downgrade on Conner Weigman. Johnson has a 6/1 TD/INT rate and 7.8 ANY/A in 59 attempts. Weigman posted an 8/2 TD/INT on 8.4 ANY/A across 119 attempts before going down.

We think the Aggies will pull the minor upset.

The play: Texas A&M +2 (play to pick 'em)

Notre Dame (-6.5) at Louisville

ATL: ND -8.4

The Irish, capable of running and passing, and defending both, have very few weaknesses. They're top-15 in offensive explosion and defensive efficiency, and top-25 in offensive efficiency and defensive explosion.

Notre Dame has put up this statistical profile despite playing two opponents inside the top-26 of my Power Rankings - including my No. 1 overall team, Ohio State (Notre Dame finished that heartbreaker with a 62% postgame win expectancy).

Louisville is 5-0. But we still know precious little about the Cardinals, because they haven't played anyone. Louisville has enjoyed SP+'s No. 117 strength of schedule during its perfect start.

The best opponent, by far, was NC State in last week's game. Louisville only beat the Wolfpack 13-10. NC State's coaching staff was so disgusted afterwards that it benched its veteran QB. Louisville has played no opponent with a top-60 SP+ offense. NC State was the first opponent it had faced with a top-80 SP+ defense.

UL QB Jack Plummer has already thrown six interceptions despite the soft opening schedule. If Louisville is down in the second half and needs Plummer to throw it back into the game against Notre Dame's top-shelf pass defense, it is asking for trouble.

Confronted with a heavyweight for the first time in 2023, we think Louisville is going to get knocked out.

The play: Notre Dame -6.5 (play to -7)

Louisiana Tech (+6) vs. Western Kentucky (Thursday)

ATL: WKU -5.2

We cashed a ticket on WKU last Thursday in a game against Middle Tennessee with an eerily similar spread. That game was a really good matchup for the Hilltoppers. This one, on paper, doesn't look the same.

Western Kentucky is down from last year's 9-5 team. The 2022 Hilltoppers finished No. 45 and 81, respectively, in SP+ offense and defense. This year's team is No. 69 and 110, respectively, in the same categories.

WKU QB Austin Reed's PFF passing grade has fallen from 78.4 to 71.7. WR Malachi Corley's catch rate has plummeted nearly 10%. Recent broadcasts of WKU games have referenced how it's been easier for opposing secondaries to roll extra coverage at Corley with his former running mates Jaylen Hall and Daewood Davis no longer around.

WKU is one of the top-10 most pass-happy offenses in America. When its passing game takes a step back, the entire offense naturally will in kind.

WKU's defensive decline, meanwhile, was predictable. I wrote the following about that unit - which returned only four starters - in my preseason Conference USA preview:

"[WKU's] defense impressed with 23.4 PPG allowed last year and a nation-high 32 takeaways, one year after it finished No. 3 with 31. But that side of the ball was hollowed out by defections over the offseasons. ...I'm not going out on a limb by saying WKU will not force 32 turnovers this year with this transfer-filled lineup. Defensive regression plus a flip in turnover luck could spell a precipitous one-year defensive nosedive."

That's exactly what we've gotten. WKU now has a bottom-25 defense in the country.

Add it all up, and this is a team with only one strength, its passing offense, and that strength isn't as strong as it was last season.

Despite knowing all this, I backed WKU against Middle Tennessee last week for one reason: MTSU's secondary is horrible. I'm fading WKU against Louisiana Tech this week because LTU's defense is the bizarro MTSU: It can't defend the run, but it's awesome against the pass.

LTU ranks No. 8 in defensive passing success rate, No. 13 in yards per dropback, and No. 2 in completion percentage allowed. And, returning to the difference between LTU and MTSU vis-a-vis this matchup: LTU ranks No. 12 in PFF coverage grade, while MTSU ranks No. 131. WKU has no recourse but to go directly into LTU's greatest strength.

On the other side of the ball, Louisiana Tech's top-10 explosive rushing offense will go up against a WKU run defense that ranks No. 103 in success rate and No. 120 in explosiveness. Both of LTU's two-headed RB platoon are averaging 7.3 YPC or more.

On Thursday night, as Louisiana Tech is putting the finishing touches on this win over Western Kentucky, the stunned announcers will, over and over again, refer to it as a big upset. You'll know better. WKU is heading into an ambush on Thursday night.

The play: Louisiana Tech +6 (play to +3.5)

Other bets:

Illinois vs. Nebraska under 44.5 (Friday)
ATT: 38.7

UCLA (-3) vs. Washington State
ATL: UCLA -4.7

Colorado (-5.5) at Arizona State
ATL: CU -6.3

Georgia vs. Kentucky under 48.5
ATT: 41

Oregon State (-9) at California
ATL: OSU -12.1

Buffalo (+2.5) vs. Central Michigan
ATL: Buffalo -0.6

Boise State (-8) vs. San Jose State
ATL: BSU -11.4

Army (-3.5) vs. Boston College
ATL: Army -5.4

South Florida (-3) at UAB
ATL: USF -3.3

Marshall (+6.5) at NC State
ATL: NCSU -4.4

Make sure to check out our other best bets for Thursday:

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