In Week 10 of our “Thursday Night Football Player Prop Bets: Odds, Picks & Predictions,” we preview the 4-5 Atlanta Falcons vs. the 2-7 Carolina Panthers.
This game is a rematch of an exciting Week 8 matchup that went into overtime. That contest saw a combined 71 points and over 900 yards of offense. Heading into this game, the Falcons' secondary is still banged up, as they will be down multiple starters. As for Carolina, P.J. Walker could be on a short leash after struggling last week vs. Cincinnati and getting benched in the second half. Finally, this week the game will be played outdoors in Carolina. The forecast for this game is calling for rain which could limit the offenses slightly in the matchup.
(Odds are courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook)
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Player: D.J. Moore
Player Prop: 4.5 Receptions
Recommendation: Bet the Over (-105)
D.J Moore is coming off a disappointing game vs. the Bengals, as he only secured two receptions for 24 yards. Before that game, Moore had seen an uptick in production as he had back-to-back strong performances. This includes a solid showing vs. the Falcons in Week 8, going for 6-152-1. However, Moore's biggest game of the season also had his biggest blunder of the year, as a 15-yard penalty on his game-tying touchdown led to kicker Eddy Pinero missing the go-ahead extra point from 48 yards. This unfortunate series of events could lead to redemption for Moore as he gets to make up for it just two weeks later.
In general, the matchup vs. the Atlanta Falcons is a solid one for wide receivers. This season the Falcons have allowed the most receptions and yards to wide receivers in 2022. This includes allowing at least five receptions to 17 different receivers through nine games. Seven of the opposing top outside wide receivers in those nine games hit the five-reception mark. Finally, the Falcons will be down multiple players in the secondary, including top cornerback A.J. Terrell, which should allow Moore to hit his reception over in Week 10.
Player: Kyle Pitts
Player Prop: 3.5 Receptions
Recommendation: Bet the Over (-105)
To say Kyle Pitts' 2022 season has been a disappointment has been an understatement. Through Week 9, Pitts sits at 17th in receptions and 15th in receiving yards among tight ends. This production comes a year after Pitts finished with 68 receptions and over 1,000 receiving yards, both ranking top seven in the NFL among tight ends as a rookie in 2021. Unfortunately, it's not as if he has made a big leap in the touchdown category either to compensate, as he has only scored two touchdowns on the year. A lot of these issues stem from the lack of pass volume, as the Falcons have thrown the third-fewest pass attempts so far this season. This has led to Pitts only eclipsing the 3.5 reception mark twice in 2022.
On a more positive note, one of the games where Pitts got over 3.5 receptions came back in Week 8 vs. the Carolina Panthers. In that matchup, Pitts secured 5-80-1 on nine targets. Pitts was featured early in that game, as he saw four receptions on five targets in the first half alone. This has been a common theme for tight ends vs. the Panthers. Since Week 4, the Panthers have allowed at least four receptions to a tight end in every game. This includes solid performances from Zach Ertz (6-47-1), George Kittle (5-47), Cade Otton (4-64), Hayden Hurst (5-35) and Pitts (5-80-1). Even playing outdoors in the rain, Pitts should see enough targets in this matchup to hit his over in Week 10.
Player: D'Onta Foreman
Player Prop: 54.5 Rushing Yards
Recommendation: Bet the Over (-105)
Thrust once again into a lead-back role, D'Onta Foreman has flourished in the first few weeks as the starter for Carolina. After shining with the Titans down the stretch in 2021, Foreman did it again as the lead back after the trade of Christian McCaffrey just a few weeks ago. Since Week 7, Foreman has rushed for 86 yards per game, including back-to-back 118 rushing yards performances. One of those games came against this Falcons defense back in Week 8. Foreman bulldozed his way to 118 yards and three touchdowns on 26 carries in that game.
Now heading into Week 10, it would make a ton of sense to take the over after a huge game just two weeks again. However, we should consider that fellow running back Chuba Hubbard did not play in the Week 8 matchup. If Hubbard plays, we should expect more of a timeshare this week. Either way, with the Panthers allowing the fourth most rushing yards so far in 2022 and the success Foreman had just two weeks ago, he should see enough work to justify us betting his over in Week 10.
Season Long Betting Tracker
- Individual bets: 16-10 (61%)
- Same Game Parlays 0-3
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Sources: BettingPros, FantasyPros, DraftKings, Razzball, PFF, Pro Football Reference, and FFToday