Top 10 College Football Week 5 Picks & Predictions (2023)

The weekend is here, and that means another full slate of College Football action! We’re back with all of our top picks for Saturday’s slate. Here are our best bets and predictions for Week 4 of College Football.

College Football Week 5 Picks & Predictions

Georgia vs. Auburn

Last week we saw Auburn fall to Texas A&M on the road. This week, they return home to take on the best team in the country. Not only do I like Georgia to cover the 14-point spread, I think Brock Bowers has another big day to solidify himself as the best tight end in the country.

While Bowers had put up good numbers through the first three weeks of the season, he didn't score his first touchdown until last week against UAB. I think that trend continues against an Auburn defense that gave up 193 yards passing and two touchdowns last week vs. A&M.

So far this year, Bowers has 22 receptions for 256 yards and two touchdowns. Prior to this year, he averaged 10 touchdowns a year over his two seasons with the Bulldogs. It may have been a slow start when it comes to scoring but this is a great spot to keep it going. After all, the Auburn defense is still allowing just over 16 points per game and 298 yards on defense. That includes games against Samford, Cal and UMass. Take Bowers in this even-money bet.

Pick: Georgia TE Brock Bowers Over 0.5 Receiving Touchdowns (+100)

-Russell Brown

MarShawn Lloyd Over 88.5 Rushing Yards (-114)

I wouldn’t be doing my job if I didn’t add a prop bet for the Colorado-USC matchup! USC’s offense has averaged 569.3 yards per game, including 192 yards on the ground. Meanwhile, Colorado’s defense has given up 206.5 yards per game on the ground.

MarShawn Lloyd should have a day. Lloyd has led the Trojans with 39 carries and 349 yards. He’s also scored two touchdowns and has averaged 8.9 yards per carry.

Colorado’s secondary is solid. It’ll be interesting to see how QB Caleb Williams prepares against them. But when the run game starts to work well, USC will continue to run right through the Buffaloes. Let’s grab Lloyd to earn at least 89 rushing yards.

-Jason Radowitz

#8 USC Trojans at Colorado Buffalos

Leg 1: USC -21.5 (-110)
Leg 2: Caleb Williams Over 3.5 Passing Touchdowns (-108)
Leg 3: Tahj Washington Over 62.5 Receiving Yards (-114)

USC had a scare last week against Arizona State, but they would break away later and get a two-possession win. This team continues to run through defenses, and their 55 points per game lead the nation. The Colorado hype train didn't just slow down last week, but it stopped altogether. The Buffaloes had no answer in their first conference matchup against Oregon, as their defense couldn't stop the Ducks, and they couldn't move the ball on offense. USC does not possess the defense Oregon has, so I believe Colorado will have more points, but no one has been able to stop the Trojans offense, and they've been able to score almost at will all season.

Caleb Williams is trying to get into Archie Griffin territory by being a two-time Heisman winner, and it's looking good as he's favored in some books. He's on a great run at the moment, with three touchdown passes in six straight games stemming from last year. Colorado has allowed three passing touchdowns in back-to-back games, and Williams can do one better.

Williams likes to spread the ball, but he has a few favorites. Tahj Washington only had one catch last week, but it was a 45-yard touchdown. When Washington gets the ball, it's usually for a big play. Last week, Colorado allowed four different wide receivers to have four or more catches, and once again, they won't have Travis Hunter.

Parlay Odds: +590

-John Supowitz

#2 Michigan @ Nebraska

Michigan is 0-4 against the spread this season, but they have also controlled the clock and played to the Under in every single game. Nebraska has also played four games, and only one of them has gone over the total as well. 39 is a tough total to go under, but these defenses have both been so good I'm going to risk it, as I feel like Michigan will stomp Nebraska.

Michigan is currently No. 1 in the country in points allowed per game at 5.8, 13th in rushing yards allowed (80 YPG), seventh in passing defense (151 YPG) and third in total YPG Allowed (231 YPG). Nebraska runs the ball a lot. They are top 15 in rush attempts per game and will be running into the brick wall of the Wolverine’s defense. Michigan ranks third in rush defense, according to PFF, and has two top-15 graded run defenders on the defensive in Braiden McGregor and Kris Jenkins.

Nebraska has been strong against the run as well, currently sitting second in the country against the run, allowing less than 50 YPG. While Nebraska hasn't played any overly strong teams yet, Minnesota has put up rushing totals of 296 vs. EMU, 170 vs. UNC and 244 vs. NW after being held to only 55 by Nebraska in Week 1. I don't think Michigan will have a bad game rushing, but maybe it takes a quarter or two to get rolling like it did against ECU and Rutgers.

Nebraska is 103rd in scoring offense, and I feel like they will go to another notch on the belt of Michigan, who hasn't allowed more than seven points to anyone. We've also seen Michigan be content to sit on a lead and bleed the clock late, as they've only scored once in the fourth quarter through their first four games. Michigan will get up in the third and chew clock again as the stadium empties out in the fourth. Michigan might be 0-4 ATS so far, but they've also won every game by at least 24 points. I don't see the script changing against a struggling Nebraska squad. Go Blue!

Pick: Michigan -17 (-110) & UNDER 39.5 (-110)

-Scott Bogman

Penn State vs. Northwestern

Penn State has started to cement themselves as a worthy adversary to Michigan and Ohio State in the Big Ten. It’s still a few weeks away from them facing off with either opponent, and they get Northwestern in Week 5. The Wildcats’ offense had been stagnant all year until a strong fourth quarter to upset Minnesota last week. They’ll play an elite Penn State defense here and I fear they’ll go back to their ways offensively. The line is set at nearly four touchdowns and while Penn State is more than capable of covering that number, this will be QB Drew Allar’s first road start in the Big Ten. I expect to see James Franklin keep things simple and not try to run up the score leading to an under play.

Pick: Under 46.5 (-110)

-Ryan Rodeman

Texas A&M (-6.5) at Arkansas

Arkansas has two big tree-top problems heading into this game before we even get into the on-field handicap: Hogs RB Rocket Sanders looks likely to be out again, and the Hogs are one of the most penalized teams in the country.

Arkansas averages nine penalties a game (No. 124) for an average of 78.5 YPG lost (No. 123). In conjunction with the offensive line's struggles (No. 119 in pressures allowed and No. 120 in blown block percentage) and QB KJ Jefferson's propensity to get sacked (No. 112 in sacks per dropback), you can see why Arkansas faces third-and-long situations at a top-10 national percentage.

Arkansas' defense, meanwhile, is a boom-or-bust operation. It ranks No. 59 SP+ overall despite ranking No. 2 in havoc rate. That's because it’s aggression can come back to bite it: The Hogs' defense ranks No. 112 IsoPPP and No. 105 in marginal explosiveness

Arkansas HC Sam Pittman said on Tuesday that while Sanders has returned to practice in a limited capacity - that happened last week - he is still not able to cut. Unless there's a dramatic change with that over the next 48 hours, he's not going to play.

Texas A&M's No. 9 SP+ defense shouldn't have a problem with the KJ Jefferson Show that Arkansas' offense turns into when Rocket is out.

Meanwhile, A&M's No. 25 SP+ offense profiles to light up Arkansas. The Aggies rank No. 28 in IsoPPP and No. 24 in big-play rate. And because A&M ranks a solid No. 41 in havoc rate allowed on offense, they should be able to both deal with and take advantage of Arkansas' hair-on-fire style.

A&M QB Connor Wiegman was announced out for the year on Wednesday. As I discussed with Scott Bogman on our mid-week BettingPros podcast, I do not care for the purposes of this handicap. QB2 Max Johnson is a seasoned veteran with a sterling career 42/7 TD/INT rate, including 7/0 since his transfer from LSU to College Station.

Pick: A&M -6.5 (play to -9.5)

-Thor Nystrom

#23 Missouri @ Vanderbilt

Missouri got me a couple of weeks ago. They upset Kansas State on a walk-off 61-yard FG. Missouri beat Memphis last week and finds themselves ranked at #23! Vanderbilt just got handled by Kentucky at home and is 0-4 against the spread this season. I may have been wrong on Missouri last week, but I was right about picking on Vandy last week. I'll let Missouri win my money back this go-around.

The injury report isn't great for either team this week. Missouri has starting QB Brady Cook and star WR Luther Burden listed as questionable. Cook was listed as questionable last week, and Burden is expected to be good enough to go. Aria Gerson of the Tennessean said that Vanderbilt HC Clark Lea 'didn't sound optimistic' that starting QB AJ Swann will be able to play, but he hasn't been ruled out yet. Ken Seals is the backup, and while he has experience, Swann leads the country in PFF’s 'Big time throw' stat and is in the top 15 in BTT%. Meanwhile, Seals was tied for the most Turnover Worthy Plays (another PFF stat) in 2020, was benched in 2021 and didn't play in 2022.

With Vanderbilt most likely down their only advantage on offense in Swann, I think Missouri will roll right over them. I'll acknowledge that this is a classic look-ahead spot for Missouri, with LSU coming next week. However, I feel like it won't matter. We likely see backup Missouri QB Sam Horn in this game at some point, but he was a top-10 QB recruit in 2022. I think he'll be able to move the ball if called upon. Give me the Tigers big against a Vandy team that hasn't covered once this season!

Bet: Missouri -13.5 (-110)

-Scott Bogman

Washington vs. Arizona

Washington is one of the most exciting teams to watch this season. Michael Penix Jr. is putting up impressive numbers, leading the country in passing touchdowns and second in passing efficiency. Vegas has him on notice, with several books having him as a Heisman Trophy favorite. Arizona is off to a 3-1 start, but they haven't faced anyone noteworthy, and now they get three straight-ranked opponents. Jayden De Laura transferring to Arizona has been great, and he is well on his way to reaching career-highs in passing yards and touchdowns. This game was so much fun to watch last year as each offense exchanged blows, and it wasn't until the final few minutes that Washington pulled away. The Huskies defense looks a little better, but they did just give up 32 points to Cal. I'm favoring the over in back-to-back years.

Pick: Over 65.5 (-110)

-John Supowitz

Notre Dame vs. Duke

Notre Dame suffered a heartbreaking loss on the last play to lose to Ohio State at home. The defense played well for most of that game, but Kyle McCord was able to convert a couple of fourth-downs on that last drive to win it. The Buckeyes contained Sam Hartman with a season-low 175 passing yards and Audric Estime with a season-low 70 rushing yards, if you contain those two, you can beat them. Duke already has a win against a ranked opponent, and now they face two in the next three weeks. Riley Leonard has been a great two-way quarterback with a 66.7 competition rate, 7.9 yards per pass, and 8.2 yards per carry. The ground game has been phenomenal, with Jordan Water getting 6.5 yards per carry and seven touchdowns. The Blue Devils have already proven themselves by beating a great Clemson defense, and at home, they can keep it within one possession against the Irish.

Pick: Duke +6.5 (-110)

-John Supowitz

Ole Miss (+3) vs. LSU

ATL: Ole Miss -1.5

LSU is 3-1. But by any measure, they've been a disappointment. Last week, they barely beat a Rocket Sanders-less Arkansas team 38-35.

The Tigers' offense has been as good as advertised, ranking No. 5 SP+. It's the defense (No. 47) and special teams (No. 93) that have let LSU down. That defense struggles to get off the field (No. 99 success rate) while giving up far too many large gains (No. 118 IsoPPP).

LSU is going to get its points against Mississippi's No. 31 SP+ defense. But the Rebels will make LSU work for it, as they deprive explosive plays at a top-25 clip.

On the other side, there's no chance that LSU is going to slow down Mississippi's offense. The Rebels rank No. 29 in marginal efficiency and No. 11 in marginal explosiveness.

The public is selling the Rebels after last week's loss to Alabama. This is a good buy-low spot in a game in which my system favors Ole Miss.

Pick: Ole Miss +3 (play to pick 'em)

-Thor Nystrom