Six of today’s 15 Major League Baseball games are played in the afternoon window, and one of our three best bets comes from the first scheduled game of the day, so our backers should be sure to get their wagers in early. In today’s article, we vary our picks with a moneyline play, a wager on an O/U as well as a team total Over that we expect to cash.
Read on to find out which teams are involved in our top MLB picks for Wednesday, June 5.
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Wednesday's Top MLB Picks
(Odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook)
Atlanta Braves (-110) @ Boston Red Sox (-106) | O/U 9.5 (-118/-104)
The Atlanta Braves and Boston Red Sox entered Tuesday’s series opener as the second and sixth-most profitable teams to the Under this season. Meanwhile, Atlanta specifically has cashed the Under in 18 of its last 26. Many will look at today’s starting pitching matchup between Spencer Schwellenbach and Nick Pivetta and suggest a high-scoring game is in order, but given these teams’ trends, we are happy to back the Under.
Pivetta has been burned by the long ball this season, allowing a 2.0 HR/9 rate. However, he has also done well to keep runners off the bases, with a 1.047 WHIP that is on pace to be by far the best of his career. Considering Atlanta ranks outside the top half of the league in home runs hit this season, we do not expect Pivetta to be as susceptible to the big fly. Meanwhile, the Red Sox have pounded out six or fewer hits in 11 of their last 14 home games, and a 27th-ranked wRC+ at home will not get it done, even against a pitcher as unknown as Schwellenbach.
MLB Pick: Under 9.5 (-104)
San Francisco Giants (+112) @ Arizona Diamondbacks (-132) | O/U 8.5 (-102/-120)
Jordan Montgomery was considered a prized acquisition for the defending NL champions, but the lefty has struggled so far this season. Montgomery entered his last start against the Mets with a .287 OBA and a .291 xBA, well below-average strikeout rates (close to a seven-point drop from last year), and an elevated hard-hit rate allowed. The free-swinging Mets took advantage of all of these deficiencies, pounding Montgomery for nine hits and eight runs over four innings. Montgomery now has a negative WAR because of a poor 1.56 WHIP and 5.48 ERA. Although the Giants are just 5-11 against left-handed starting pitchers this year, they are a great value play to beat a struggling southpaw.
Meanwhile, Jordan Hicks has transitioned nicely to the rotation from the bullpen and only trails Logan Webb among Giants starting pitchers in WAR. Hicks had allowed two or fewer earned runs in three consecutive starts before being the Yankees’ latest victim (four earned runs and two home runs allowed). Still, the strikeout specialist should limit a Diamondbacks lineup that ranks in the bottom half of the league in BABIP at home (.280).
San Francisco was a profitable 12-9 SU in its last 21 games entering Tuesday (+2.10 units/9% ROI), and we expect it to keep making money for bettors.
MLB Pick: Giants Moneyline (+112)
New York Mets (-148) @ Washington Nationals (+126) | O/U 9.5 (+100/-122)
On Monday, we cashed our Mets moneyline bet as we cited the vast difference between New York’s and Washington’s hard-hit rates of late. That came to fruition as the Mets scored eight runs on 13 hits despite hitting just one home run. This is a good sign, considering they entered that game with the second-highest HR/FB rate over the last two weeks of all MLB teams.
Hard hits and home runs should come in bunches against Washington’s Patrick Corbin, as his 48.1% hard-hit rate and 13.8% strikeout percentage are on pace to be the worst of his rocky career. In addition, Corbin is on pace for a third straight season with an xERA north of 6.00. We expect the Mets to torch another soft-tossing lefty, just as they did to Arizona’s Montgomery last Friday night.
New York entered Tuesday, cashing its team total Over in 32 of its last 53 games (+7.80 units/12% ROI), and that is likely the most profitable angle in this game, as we cannot trust the Mets’ bullpen late in games to protect a moneyline or runline wager.
MLB Pick: Mets Team Total Over 5.5 (+114)
Mike Spector is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Mike, check out his archive and follow him @MikeSpector01.